JAN 17-18-2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL
ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
Yesterday was my birthday and I spend time with my family & friends
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
AS TREASURY YIELDS SOAR, HERE IS WHAT WALL STREET THINKS HAPPENS TO INTEREST RATES NEXT
by Tyler Durden
“While not in our base case, in the event the market starts to consider the risk of more than four hikes per year, the perception of non-SEP meetings as more ‘live’ than last time could support such a shift”
The relentless selling in rates has resumed after the Monday's US holiday, with violent bear-flattening in UST curves (although off worst levels now), as our belief that an aggressive Fed tightening will coincide with lower long-term growth spreads across trading desks, and as the front-end succumbs to another blistering escalation of FOMC hiking expectations (which according to Nomura's Charlie McElligott earlier priced a touch over four hikes in ’22, up from 3.5x’s just mid- / late- last week), while Brent Crude surges to fresh 8 year highs, and European Gas Prices again jump higher on Ukraine / Russia geopolitical stress (also crunching EM Bond funds, where Ukraine has been a popular “long”).
And so with the yield juggernaut seemingly unstoppable, at least until the slowdown/recession narrative becomes dominant (and today's dismal Empire Fed print is a big first step on the way there), and the 10Y rising just shy of 1.86%...
See Chart:
2Y and 10 Y TSY Yields
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-18_11-13-38.jpg?itok=g471zkdF
SOURCE:
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WHEN DOES THE SIZZLING ECONOMY HIT A RECESSION BRICK WALL?
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
"There are good reasons to believe that today’s hot economy may be just a temporary respite."
See Chart:
Real 10-Year Treasury yield
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/when-does-sizzling-economy-hit-recession-brick-wall
Greg IP, one of my favorite WSJ writers, says the Bond Market Forecasts Bad Economic News.
Since the start of the year, investors appear to have reassessed the interest-rate outlook. Bonds have sold off, with the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves in the opposite direction to its price, jumping to 1.7% from 1.5% at the end of 2021.
Yet there are good reasons to think today’s sizzling economy may be just a temporary respite. Looked at over the longer term, real yields have been declining for decades. Olivier Blanchard, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, makes this point in a new book, “Fiscal Policy Under Low Interest Rates.” In it he notes that safe interest rates—in other words, those on risk-free government debt—have been declining in the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan for 30 years. “Their decline is due neither to the Global Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, nor to the current Covid crisis, but to more persistent factors,” he writes. “Something has happened in the last 30 years, which is different from the past.”
A hit to productivity
For now, investors think inflation is coming down, and will average 2.5% over the next 10 years, based on the yields on regular and inflation-indexed bonds. But Joe Gagnon, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warns: “Bond markets have never predicted an outburst of inflation. So why would we think they can now?” He adds: “They respond very quickly when inflation starts to rise.”
Population Growth
See Chart:
Annual Population Growth Rates
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-18_08-10-53.jpg?itok=kJuF7L7J
Low Growth Factors
One thing Greg IP failed to mention is unproductive debt. The US is swimming in it.
He did mention productivity and demographics, two points I strongly agree with.
But also mentioned one thing I strongly disagree with, the alleged savings glut in China.
The Savings Glut Thesis: What is the True Net Savings?
See Chart:
Personal savings in Bill of USD (left) / Pesonal saving rate % (right)
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-18_08-13-02.jpg?itok=RmaLi6CJ
TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT OWED
Total credit market debt owed is $85.9 trillion!
See Chart:
TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT OWED
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-18_08-14-16.jpg?itok=YU37VDQT
“Something has happened in the last 30 years, which is different from the past,” says Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari.
Yes, it has and the Fed is clueless as to what it is.
The answer is unproductive debt is a huge drag on the economy. And the Fed needs to keep interest rates low to support that debt.
This keeps zombie corporations alive and also spurs financial speculation, also a drag on growth.
When Does Recession Hit?
If the Fed does get in three rate hikes in 2022, then 2023 or 2024. And it may not even take three hikes.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/when-does-sizzling-economy-hit-recession-brick-wall
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GOLDMAN LOST $500MM TRADING STOCKS IN Q4 AS IT QUIETLY SOLD EVEN MORE BILLIONS IN EQUITIES
As Goldman was trumpeting its bullish view on stocks, and urging clients to buy any and every dip, not only did the bank sell billions in stocks, but it also lost $500 million trading public stocks in the fourth quarter...
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ALL THE US MAJORS JUST BROKE BELOW KEY TECHNICAL SUPPORT
As Europe closes, US equity markets took a decided leg lower
THE HABITS OF HIGHLY EFFECTIVE HODLERS
by Tyler Durden
How can you maximize your bitcoin stack and the benefits you gain from it, while HODLing?
As Europe closes, US equity markets took a decided leg lower with Small Caps and Nasdaq leading the way but S&P and The Dow not escaping the selling pressure this time...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-18_08-34-29.jpg?itok=adP5ZEm3
And this push lower sent the S&P to its 100DMA, The Dow broke below its 100DMA, Nasdaq surged below its 200DMA and Russell 2000 is searching for any support..
See Chart
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-18_08-33-35.jpg?itok=R4JPi2Gz
And all this as the odds of a 50bps "rage-hike" in March grow.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-us-majors-just-broke-below-key-technical-support
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
"STOP! NO! DON'T!": BABBITT TRIED TO STOP ATTACK ON CAPITOL SPEAKER’S LOBBY, VIDEO ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
Video shows female Trump supporter's desperate pleas to prevent rioters from breaking windows...
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Elections with internal-external conflicts: Political chaos is coming up
RUMORS OF TRUMP-DESANTIS DRAMA IGNITE MEDIA FIRESTORM
by Tyler Durden
"Don't take the bait..."
Last April, former President Trump said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis(R) "would be considered" as a 2024 running mate, should he run for reelection - adding that DeSantis was a "friend" and "great guy."
All of that has apparently changed according to several recent media reports of tension between the two - which appear to be supported by Trump insiders, as well as comments by both Trump and DeSantis that left-leaning outlets have used to fuel speculation. According to the reports, Trump has been not-so privately complaining about DeSantis' rapid political rise and a potential 2024 bid for the White House
"President Trump is the one clearly picking a fight here, and it’s a fight that's too early, and unnecessary," said former adviser Sam Nunberg, who told The Hill he's neutral over the dustup between the two. "We’re not in Republican primary season. This is a fight for mid-2023. It’s not a fight to start having in 2022."
"If Donald Trump believes he is punching down when he's attacking Ron DeSantis, then why do it?" he added.
The alleged drama has ignited a media firestorm, as the left would of course love nothing more than for two of the GOP's biggest threats to go at each other ahead of midterms and the 2024 election.
An article published on Sunday by The New York Times offered a detailed accounting of an increasingly confrontational relationship between Trump and DeSantis.
CONTINUE reading at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/rumors-trump-desantis-drama-ignite-media-firestorm
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OIL IS THE WRECKING BALL THAT WE ALL DESERVE...
Look at bonds. They’re getting smashed along with equities today. This will blow up the Risk Parity boys.... oil calls are a damn cheap hedge to the rest of my book because those $100s could be 100-baggers
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
NATO IS A TERRORIST ORG now working for WW3. Its members must be jailed or k…..
BUCHANAN: BIDEN SHOULD DECLARE NATO MEMBERSHIP CLOSED
“Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and neither we nor our allies have any intention or plans to bring Ukraine into NATO or to give Kyiv an Article 5 war guarantee.”
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CIA has also TERRORIST members involve in creating WW3. Fed Court must sanction now
RUSSIAN 'FALSE FLAG' IN UKRAINE STORY EMERGED AFTER CIA DIRECTOR SECRETLY VISITED KIEV
CNN belatedly discloses story originated with the Ukrainians & fed to the CIA, after which it "emerged" in mainstream media.
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- Militants Planning Terrorist Attacks in Syrian Ports of Tartus, Latakia, RU Military Says
- GOP Reps Ask NIH to Research Impact of CV-19 Lockdowns, Restrict on Americans' Health
- Poland Wants NATO to Continue Military Drills on Eastern Flank
- Stolen Car Chased Near US Capitol, 2 People in Custody
- State Dept Claims Belarus Could Play Role in Russia's Alleged Plans to Invade Ukraine
- Arab Coalition Says Hit Houthi Warehouses, Drone Communicat System in Sanaa
- CDC Adds 22 Countries to ‘Avoid Travel’ List Due to COVID-19 Risk
- Powerful Explosion Reported at Turkey's Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline
- ‘Matter of Time’: Chinese Deputy FM Warns Soon Taiwan Allies ‘Will be Zero’
- One Dead, Eight Injured After Bronx Gas Explosion Sparks Massive Fire
- US Warns of ‘Strong Response’ if RU Tries to ‘Intimidate’ US With Nukes in Lat America
- Dems Take Pains to Pass Voting Rights Bill as GOP Doubles Down on ID Laws
- Three Killed as Blast Rocks Indian Navy Destroyer in Mumbai
- France Receives Request From Mali to Review Defence Accords
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JAN 17-18 2022 PART 1-2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
Opin: EN MADRUGADA DE HIELO NEGRO Ilka Oliva
Cuba: ¿VACUNAR A LOS NIÑOS? Marc Vandepitte
CV: LA TRISTE NIÑEZ DE LA PANDEMIA Carolina Vásquez
Ecol S: NO MIRES ABAJO Nancy Piñeiro
ISR: Israel y acuerdo nuclear iraní: fábrica de mentiras Moshé M
África: Mali, demasiados culpables para un solo crimen Guadi Calvo
BRA: TENSIÓN EN EL AIRE Eric Nepomuceno
Cuba: ‘TAREA VIDA’, COMBATIENDO EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
ALC Urug: Medidas a medias de Lacalle blanco de críticas C Nicolás C
Perú Castillo y el gran capital GA Cobarde ataque de peones d Keiko
Especulaciones sin fundamento alguno = cobardia insana e indecente
Martí, EL APÓSTOL DE AMÉRICA Gustavo Espinoza
ARG: CAMPAÑA NACIONAL EN DEFENSA DEL AGUA Darío Aranda
Chile: Justicia chilena frenó la adjudicación de litio de Piñera Cecilia
COL : CRÓNICA SOBRE LAS ENCUESTAS ELECTORERAS Carlos M
Ecuad: EL VOTO NULO IDEOLÓGICO Juan Montaño
España La ley 15/97 llegó para romper la Sanidad Pública Teresa G
US: EE.UU. Y LA OTAN JUEGAN CON FUEGO Rodolfo Bueno
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
VEN asegura que la OTAN "se proyecta" hacia Latinoamérica "con COL como peón" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/417268-ministro-venezuela-otan-america-latina-colombia-peon
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Qué se sabe de la primera agencia espacial de América Latina y el Caribe https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/416454-alce-primera-agencia-espacial-america-latina-caribe
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El interior de la Tierra se está enfriando más rápido de lo esperado https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/417138-interior-tierra-enfriamiento
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Putin y Daniel Ortega tienen llamada telefó y abordan relacion bilaterales y pandemia https://actualidad.rt.com/video/417291-putin-ortega-sostienen-conversacion-telefonica
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Campaña de desinformación sobre Rusia y Ucrania, parte de las presiones de EE.UU https://actualidad.rt.com/video/417275-desinformacion-rusia-ucrania-presiones-eeuu
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
- NATO mounting build-up near Belarus, Russia claims
- Russians are coming? What Moscow could do to make life difficult for the US in L-Am
- Russia responds to US media report about Ukraine embassy 'evacuation'
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
- Washington’s Delusional Belief in Its Omnipotence? By Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
- NATO-Ukraine Joint Actions Against Russia By Lucas Leiroz
- The Dollar Has Entered a Death Spiral By Michael Snyder,
- Did J. Edgar Hoover Order the Assassination of M Luther King Jr? By Jeremy Kuzmarov
- Violence Increasing in Yemen By Lucas Leiroz
- Martin Luther King Day 2022: The Continuing Struggle for Voting Rights By A A
- U.S. Has Killed More Than 20 Million in 37 “Victim Nations” Since World War II By JA
- Redefining the Meaning of Life and Death By Julian Rose
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
Imminent restoration of Iranian-Saudi relations
Jalil Rahimi Jahanabadi, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy committee of the Iranian parliament, said in a tweet on 15 January 2022:
"#Important_Relations between #Iran and #Saudi Arabia are being revived and #Embassies are preparing to reopen. This will have an important impact on easing regional tensions and boosting the unity of the #Islamic world. Stupidity of #Extremists”.
Tehran and Riyadh have been holding talks for four months through the heads of their secret services while Iran is entering the Vienna negotiations on its nuclear programs. All this against a backdrop of war in Yemen and clashes in Iraq and Lebanon.
SOURCE: https://www.voltairenet.org/article215392.html
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- “There Must Be a Moral Shift”: Bishop Barber Calls on Democrats to Pass Voting Rights, Protect Poor
- Who Is Aafia Siddiqui? Synagogue Attack Renews Focus on Pakistani Neuroscientist Imprisoned in Texas
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