Nueva Democracia: SEP 25 2021 ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & 2

SEP 25 2021 ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & 2

ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

"A More Difficult Backdrop Is Emerging": 5 Reasons Why Goldman Is Starting To Turn Bearish

by Tyler Durden

"Stimulus, supply chains, the virus, China, and perhaps even valuation are coalescing to create a more difficult backdrop for earnings growth and multiple expansion in the months, or at least years ahead."

Last week's remarkable bounce in stocks from Monday's lows which, as a reminder, prompted the first outflow from equities in 2021...

See Chart:

Chart 5: 1^st outflow for Global Equities in ’21 (24.2 Bn)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/global%20outflows%20first%202021_0.jpg?itok=8maH9xKm

Source: BOFA Global Investment Strategy

... has sparked many questions among Wall Street's elite where even some of the biggest bulls are puzzled by the market's violent reversal (which, however, was predicted correctly by flow-tracking quants like Nomura's Charlie McElligott).

And it's not just the market's relentless ability to internalize any adverse market action and come out on top as a wave of BTFDers rushes in: as Goldman's strategist Chris Hussey wrote late on Friday, "one thing that is increasingly drawing our attention and was 'front and center' this week is how the economy, policy, and earnings growth appear to be rapidly transitioning away from the initial post-pandemic explosion of accommodation and activity and towards a slower pace as the brakes are pressed on a variety of key parts of the growth machine."

As Hussey further notes, growth is fine for now and even robust, with Goldman's economists forecasting over 4.5% GDP growth forecast to extend into 2022, but as he cautions "a developed economy like the US cannot grow at a 9% pace for very long --even as it catches up out of a pandemic."

Meanwhile, Goldman focuses on the impact of fading stimulus, supply chains, the virus, China, and even stock valuations which are "coalescing to create a more difficult backdrop for earnings growth and multiple expansion in the months, or at least years ahead."

Here are a few observations on all 5 of these potentially "braking" factors:

1. Stimulus. The FOMC indicated that tapering ‘may soon be warranted’ at this week’s meeting and on the back of the statement, yields on 10-year Treasuries have risen 15 bp to 1.45% while front-end rates have reset notably higher as shown in the chart below.

See Chart:

Chart of the Week

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/front%20end%20reset%20higher.jpg?itok=_6hAwDuR

Interestingly, stocks also rose on the back of the Fed statement, consolidating the rebound from Monday's sell-off. And while the Fed has not done anything yet -- only suggested it is about to -- the wheels do seem to now be in place to wind down the central bank's latest QE program and to eventually start raising rates -- as soon as one year from now. Adding to this point, BofA's Michael Hartnett notes that global tapering has begun (ECB, BoE, BoC, RBA, Fed) which will see a sharp drop in global central liquidity which was $8.5 trillion in 2020, shrinks to $2.1trillion in 2021, and will be just $0.1 in 2022 (putting this in context, since the COVID outbreak central banks have bought $800MM of assets every hour, a number which shrinks to <$100MM in the second half of 2022).

See Chart:

Central Bank Purchases set to decline

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/more-difficult-backdrop-emerging-5-reasons-why-goldman-starting-turn-bearish

And at the same time monetary policy appears to be shifting from the gas pedal to the brakes, fiscal policy may be as well. As we noted last week, Goldman's political economist wrote this week about the growing risks around the next US federal spending program and the debt limit extension in “Collision Course?” and “More Downside Risks from Washington.”

2. Supply Chains. The inability of companies to source parts, people, and commodities has been a major reason why we have warned about the slowing growth momentum we have observed in recent week. While Goldman is confidence that supply chain constraints are mainly a function of too rapid a recovery in demand, and so see it as a temporary problem, but for homebuilders, automobile manufacturers, and truckers it is all a supply problem today that is putting upward pressure on pricing and potentially downward pressure on margins (although margins have held up quite well so far). Case in point, on August 30 we warned that a slew of profit warnings are coming in the coming weeks, and between FedEx, Nike, PPG, and many others that's just what has happened.

Looking at the Homebuilders, Goldman highlights how DRI lowered its November quarter guidance due to an inability to get enough materials and labor while fellow builder LEN is also started fewer communities in the current environment.
In Autos, the bank writes that September car sales are tracking about 25% below year-ago levels - that's versus September 2020 and the heart of the pandemic - as dealer inventories are at historically low levels. The good news for car makers: prices are strong -- although this may not be so good for inflation and Fed policy (see #1 above).
And finally in Transports, FDX missed earnings this week as it is facing a shortage of truckers and shippers .

3. The virus. In addition to supply chain disruptions, Goldman previously cited the Delta variant as a reason for why they were seeing slower 3Q21 GDP growth when they lowered the bank's economic forecast back on Sep 6. Fast forward two weeks, and the summer wave of the virus does appear to have peaked...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/more-difficult-backdrop-emerging-5-reasons-why-goldman-starting-turn-bearish

even in the US South -- as the chart below clearly shows.

See Chart:

US Regions: daily population hospitalized for COVID per Million

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/US%20region%20cases.jpg?itok=w4q5gIg7

Commenting on the chart above, Goldman said that "what we might have learned this summer is that the virus still has the ability to disrupt the pace of growth even among populations with high rates of vaccination. Growth does not appear to have been derailed this summer, but it does appear to be trending slower than most thought it would back on Memorial Day."

4. China. We entered this week with a lot being written about how issues surrounding China's property market are driving a global 'risk-off' sentiment shift. And we exit this week with no resolution to China's property market issues, yet the S&P 500 is UP on the week. But while it turned out that China did not derail the bull market this week, China's property market is still very big (see “The Housing Market Is Almost Frozen" - An Even Bigger Problem Emerges For China"). And uncertainties persist. Perhaps what we continue to discover is that China is no longer the sustained tailwind to global growth that it was back in the years following the Great Financial Crisis when the country was pushing double digit GDP growth rates (see "China Is Responsible For More Than A Third Of World GDP Growth - This Is A Problem".)

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20turbocharge_0.jpg?itok=HddaAFDA

5. Valuation. According to Goldman's Hussey, "stock market valuations rarely break under their own weight" and it typically takes some other more fundamental catalyst to cause earnings to decline and investors to pay less for earnings. But as Goldman's Peter Oppenheimer highlighted in a fresh global strategy note this week, stock market returns are likely to be muted going forward relative to past cycles. Why? We are entering the current cycle with high valuations, ultra-low rates, and corporate margin headwinds from rising wages and regulation and the headwinds from de-globalization. And as the bank's chart of the week below illustrates, historically forward 10-year returns for equities have trended lower when they have started at our current elevated valuation.

Goldman's chart of the week: Valuation is not typically the cause of a bubble bursting and stocks can stay ‘expensive’ for a long time. But over a long time, the returns that you might expect to get from investing in equities tend to be far smaller when you buy stocks at high aluations than when you buy them when they are ‘cheap’.

See Chart:

Correlation between cyclically adjusted P/E and forward returns

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/PE%20correlation%20and%20returns.jpg?itok=lqyxJfg1

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/more-difficult-backdrop-emerging-5-reasons-why-goldman-starting-turn-bearish

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Hedge Fund Net Leverage At All Time Highs As No Dips Are Sold

"It seems that HFs are not that concerned about the broader market. Over the past few months, there’s been limited willingness to sell dips. In line with this, we saw fairly neutral flows [ See Chart ]

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Why Is Gold Not Rising?

Some are even saying gold is dead, a silly and “barbarous” old relic of ancient times, ancient math and ancient common sense... [ See Chart ]

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

Democrats In Congress Try To Abolish Space Force

"...since its creation under the former Trump administration, the Space Force has threatened longstanding peace and flagrantly wasted billions of taxpayer dollars..."

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Judge Denies Police Union's Effort To Delay Vaccine Mandate in Massachusetts

"The public interest is, unquestionably, best served by stopping the spread of the virus...", Judge Jackie Cowin said...

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How Many Containers Of Cargo Are Stuck Off California's Coast?

While the numbers fluctuate from day to day, there were 70 container ships in the queue on Monday with total capacity of 432,909 twenty-foot equivalent units. [ See Map ]

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A Nationally Televised Example Of The Chaos False Positive COVID Tests Create

How often are false positive Covid tests happening, why don't we ever talk about them, and when does it impact daily life enough to be counterintuitive?

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El huelguista Biden tampoco se vacuno de inmediato, dicen las ‘buenas’ lenguas

3,000 NYC Teachers Asked For Vaccination Exemptions, Union Says

"Principals and superintendents have been reaching out consistently to tell us that they are concerned about not having enough staff..."

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Yo si caí en ’la trampa miedo’ que siembran los benefactores del CV-vax. Dos veces tuve que hacer una larga cola. Mi esposa rehusó y vive feliz con su immune system bien cuidado. Se volvió vegetariana (solo salmón con vino tinto que compartimos) y con vitamina D3 y E, todos los días. Al diablo con la vacuna, que los pinchen a los idiotas -dijo un dia- y no lo tome como insulto, dijo una verdad, pero también es verdad que yo viajo en avión y ella no tiene que hacerlo, no tiene que mostrar su papelito de ‘idiota’. Yo si estoy obligado a eso.

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El hotel “Fedifornia” se parece a la vacuna:

Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave

Central bank digital currencies are on the way. The German Central Bank just embraced a digital euro. Let's discuss the risks...

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No que otra: a fediforniar.. a fedifornias.. que el mundo se va a acabar:WW3

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

NO A LA IDIOTEZ, dicen los Nowegians

Norwegian Government Announces Lifting Of Final COVID-19 Measures

"Now we can live almost as we did before the pandemic hit us..."

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Ni los canarios pueden cantarle a la LIBERTAD:

Canary Islands Volcano Enters 'New Explosive Phase', Suspending All Flights

"La Palma airport is inoperative due to ash accumulation."

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El terrorismo vaccine se apodero de uno de los países mas lindos de Europa

Italy Orders Companies Not To Pay Unvaccinated Workers

Unjabbed employees face large fines if they show up to work...

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QUE VERGUENZA!.. aplastar derechos humanos para favorecer criminales del CV…. Jamas se vio esto en ITALIA

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NO TO VACCINATION: "Just Say No to Drugs"

"Immunity As A Service" - The Snake-Oil Salesmen & The COVID-Zero Con

One of the most common reasons given for mass COVID vaccinations is the idea that if we reach herd immunity through vaccination, we can starve the virus out of existence and get our lives back. It's the COVID-Zero strategy or some variant of it.

By now it is abundantly clear from the epidemiological data that the vaccinated are able to both catch and spread the disease.

Clearly vaccination isn't going to make this virus disappear. Only a mind that has lost its grasp on reality can fail to see how ridiculous all this has become.

But a tour through pre-COVID science demonstrates that, from day one, long before you and I had even heard of this virus, it was 100% inevitable and 100% predictable that these vaccines would never be capable of eradicating this coronavirus and would never lead to any kind of lasting herd immunity.

Even worse, lockdowns and mass vaccination have created a dangerous set of circumstances that interferes with our immune system's ability to protect us against other respiratory viruses. They also risk driving the evolution of this virus towards mutations that are more dangerous to both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated alike. Lockdowns, mass vaccinations, and mass booster shots were never capable of delivering on any of the promises that were made to the public.

And yet, vaccination has been successfully used to control measles and even to eradicate smallpox. So, why not COVID? Immunity is immunity, and a virus is a virus is a virus, right? Wrong! Reality is far more complicated... and more interesting.

This Deep Dive exposes why, from day one, the promise of COVID-Zero can only ever have been a deliberately dishonest shell game designed to prey on a lack of public understanding of how our immune systems work and on how most respiratory viruses differ from other viruses that we routinely vaccinate against. We have been sold a fantasy designed to rope us into a pharmaceutical dependency as a deceitful trade-off for access to our lives. Variant by variant. For as long as the public is willing to go along for the ride.

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/immunity-service-snake-oil-salesmen-covid-zero-con

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Huawei CFO Gets Hero's Welcome In China While Canadians Land Quietly After Biden Acquiesced To 'Hostage Diplomacy'

A teary-eyed Meng told the crowd, "I am finally home after over 1,000 days of suffering."

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Old customs are no abolished by decree. Las viejas costumbres no acaban por decreto

Taliban Hangs 4 Bodies In Public Square - Says Will Resume "Cutting Off Of Hands"

"Cutting off of hands is very necessary for security," a Taliban official said.

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Los que tienen miedo al socialismo deben irse y jamás regresar

Wealthy Germans Fearing Leftist Victory In Sunday's Vote Scramble To Move Fortunes To Switzerland

"I know a number of German entrepreneurs who want to have a foothold outside Germany if things get too red there".

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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

-- 'Things Happen': Trump Says 'Bad Call' From Doctor Would Possibly Prevent 2024 Election Run

- Video: Amtrak Cross-Country Train Derails in Montana, One Passenger Reportedly Dead

- Venezuelan Government Delegation Arrives in Mexico For Talks With Opposition - Maduro

- Lavrov Says Borrell Told Russia to Get Out of Africa

- Four Teens Charged With Plotting School Attack on 25th Anniversary of Columbine Shooting

- Germany Election: Merkel Warns Country's ‘Future’ at Stake Over Possible Left Swing

- North Korea Ready for Talks With South on Ending 71-Year State of War

- Texas Democrat Not Ridin' With Biden on 'Trump'-Style Deportations to Haiti

- French Capital Sees 11th Weekend of Protests Against COVID-19 Passes

- Lancet Task Force Probing COVID Origins Disbanded 'in Favour of Wider Biosafety Research'

-K Harris Hires Jen Psaki’s Brother-in-Law as Her Ratings Hit Bottom Amid Border Crisis

-Western Attempts to Prop Up Order Based on Its Rules Threatens to Revive Bloc-Mentality, Lavrov Says

-'Absolute Catastrophe': Senator Cruz Grills Biden Over Haiti Migrant Surge

-Iran, Venezuela Reportedly Reach Deal to Swap Oil for Condensate in Circumvention of US Sanctions

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SET 25 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++

REBELION

Noam Chomsky: Qué futuro tiene la paz en el mundo

CELAC : La delicada integración latinoamericana H López

Perú Unidos contra el terrorismo Raúl Allain

ARG-PASO: Barajar… ¿y dar de nuevo? Alberto Nadra

BRA- PSOL Siete notas sobre el congreso del PSOL V Arcary

FEM: La víctima de ‘La Manada’ Vanesa Lozano

COL: Visita de jefe del Comando Sur de US preocupa

Cuba: Criptomonedas ¿cómo se regularán en Cuba?

Cuba: Educ sexual: campo de fuerzas en tensión K R

España: Constitución y correlaciones de fuerzas M Ruiz

Israel Boicotea reunión sobre racismo en la ONU

Afgan: La derrota de US y “la amenaza china” Javier C

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

Volcán La Palma sufre rotura parcial al no poder soportar su propio peso https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405116-video-cono-principal-volcan-palma-sufre-rotura

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US detiene a 14 militar MX y incautan armas por cruzar la frontera entre ambos países https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405119-detienen-7-militares-mexico-cruzaron

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Ante los desafíos globales, el mundo necesita unidad: dice Lavrov en la ONU https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405086-serguei-lavrov-pronunciar-discurso-onu

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3 muertos y 50 heridos al descarrilar un tren con 147 personas a bordo en Montana https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405128-3-personas-mueren-descarrilar-tren

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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/

Sputnik Orbiting the World

Germany post-Merkel and Britain post-riots (E403)

Merkel has stabilized Germany, largely keeping out of international confrontations, welcoming a huge flow of refugees, and has kept the country as the economic powerhouse within the EU. So, what next for Germany and for the woman they call Mutti?

SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/sputnik/535744-germany-chancellor-merkel-era-end/

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Keiser Report

Privacy in the age of surveillance

Max and Stacy look at the growing demands in the US for a Chinese-style social credit system, whereby the tech giants permanently ‘disappear’ certain deplorables and undesirables from the internet. In the second half, Max interviews Harry Halpin, of Nym Technologies, about privacy in an age of surveillance

SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/535733-chinese-style-social-credit-system/

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GLOBAL RESEARCH

Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies

- “US Sovereignty”: NATO Takes over Norfolk Naval Base By Renee Parsons,

- Wanted: A Palestinian Front for All Seasons By Rima Najjar,

- China in Action: Carbon Neutral by 2050 By Peter Koenig

- US-led Coalition Denies Responsibility for Drone Strikes against Syria By South Front,

- The 2020-21 Worldwide Corona Crisis: Destroying Civil Society, Engineered Economic Depression, Global Coup d’État and the “Great Reset” By Prof Michel Chossudovsky

- Covid-19, “What are They Doing to These Patients”. Dr. Bryan Ardis, Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, Dr. Reiner Fuellmich By Dr. Bryan Ardis, Reiner Fuellmich