Nueva Democracia: SEP 22 2021 ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2

SEP 22 2021 ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2

ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Three Key Takeaways From The Fed Meeting

by Tyler Durden

The taper will start in November, but the market has serious doubt about the Fed's forecasts for 2022 and onward...

Confirming what we said in "It's Official: Tapering To Begin In November, End In July", the FOMC today paved the way for a taper start in two months when it said "the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted." Furthermore, the projected path for the policy rate in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed an even split among FOMC members between zero and one hike in 2022, slightly above the OIS implied rate

See Chart:

Implied Fed funds target rate

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/implied%20fed%20funds%20sept%202021.jpg?itok=7dqlzPvI

Curiously, in its commentary on the FOMC, Goldman appears to be hinting at a bit of a mutiny inside the Fed: according to Goldman's Jan Hatzius "our best guess is that Chair Powell did not project a hike in 2022." Is Powell about to cede control to the far more hawkish regional Feds?

In its post-mortem of the FOMC, BofA chief economist Michelle Meyer said that on the whole, the Fed meeting was another move in the "more hawkish direction." even if the bank clarified that "this is still a very dovish Fed that is highly committed to achieving higher inflation and a hot economy. But in the face of supply side constraints and growing signs of persistent inflation, it appears that those objectives could be met earlier."

This may explain why Goldman was wildly off in its forecast: as Hatzius notes, "the median dot implied three additional hikes in 2023 and three more in 2024, implying three and half total hikes through end-2023 (vs two in June; we expected two at this meeting) and six and half hikes through end-2024 (not reported in June; we expected five at this meeting)."

There were three key takeaways from the meeting:

1. As noted above, taper on track to be announced in November and be completed by mid-year. While the taper signal in the statement was vague – “may soon be warranted” – Chair Powell clarified in the press conference that they could be ready in the upcoming meeting (in November). Hence absent a significant disappointment in the employment data or financial market disruption, this confirms what we said two weeks ago, that tapering will begin in November and end in July.

See Chart:

Monthly QE (SBN) … Tapering

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/tapering%20nov%202011_4.jpg?itok=2iapfhGt

2. Committee members are edging toward higher rates: As the Fed's updated dot plot showed, the Committee is now evenly split between the first hike in 2022 or 2023, which brought the median up to 0.25%. The consensus is now for 3 hikes in both 2023 and 2024, leaving rates at the end of the forecast horizon at 1.75%. As Chair Powell noted, this is still decently below the long-run funds rate of 2.5%, which means policy is still accommodative; meanwhile with 2024 OIS still pegged at 1% the market's verdict is no way the Fed can achieve this.

See Charts:

June “dots and September “dots’

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/dots.jpg?itok=swUox_x-

3. The case of higher inflation is building due to greater supply side constraints: Forecasts were boosted for core inflation modestly and Powell noted that the supply side is constrained and creating challenges for inflation. As BofA notes, "the Fed has become more concerned about persistent price pressures, although the critical test will be long-run inflation expectations, which remain well anchored’. Monitoring the supply side developments will be critical:; the supply side remains constrained for both goods and labor.

See Chart:Economic projections of FED Res Board Members vs Fed Reserve Bank Presidents https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-09-22%20%285%29_0.png?itok=8HLkkedJ

Continue reading & see more charts by checking these subtitles:

Market reaction

On the November Taper

Hiking is (not) tapering

Transitory inflation is (not) permanent

Rate market interpretation

Conclusion:

Finally, on a day when the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility hit an all time high of just under $1.3 trillion, the Fed announced an increase in their overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) per counterparty cap from $80bn to $160bn. We flagged this possibility in August due to increased money fund utilization of ON RRP, and the increase can be interpreted as a preemptive measure by the Fed to ensure abundant money fund & GSE access to the Fed at September quarter end and in case there is a substantial flight to quality due to debt limit concerns.

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-key-takeaways-fed-meeting

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Taper Tantrum 2.0?

by Tyler Durden

...the yield curve tumbled to its flattest since June 2020...

Stocks did what stocks do ahead of The Fed - drifted higher - and then markets all roared higher after The Fed statement (which was undoubtedly hawkish on both the taper and rate liftoff) but it was not until Powell said the taper would be over by mid-2022 that everything reversed (dollar higher; gold, bonds, and stocks lower). But by the close, gold was lower (well why not) and so were stocks while the dollar and bonds held post-FOMC gains...

See Chart:

Dollar, Bonds, S&P and Gold

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-09-22_12-56-11.jpg?itok=nWg_Ed2O

On a volatility-basis, today was mini-taper-tantrummy, but stocks only cared that Evergrande was 'saved' (it wasn't) and The Fed won't stop the flow of free money until at least December...Small Caps liftathon all day as short-squeezers were in play

See Chart:

Evergrande

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-09-22_12-59-45.jpg?itok=z_GtBWHh

Stocks remain down on the week still however (although Small Caps managed to get green briefly)...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-09-22_12-55-40.jpg?itok=huMhGVIy

All sectors ended the day green with Energy leading but it was the Evergrande pump open that dominated...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6381.jpg?itok=LTunTUt9

The 30Y Yield fell to its lowest since early August...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6669.jpg?itok=PrFv5Jkm

10Y Yields ended marginally lower but chopped around in the last few days range...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm377C.jpg?itok=0EWZyKwZ

The yield curve flattened dramatically, with 5s30s back at its flattest since June 2020...

See Chart:

Market Matrix: US sell 5 Year & Buy 30 Year Bond Yield Spread

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm71A1.jpg?itok=ehqQwXkh

Before we leave rates-land, it's worth a look at the anxiety being priced into the short-dated T-Bill market - the market just ain't buying what the Democrats are selling on any deal getting done...

See Chart:

Debt Ceiling Anxiety Proxi

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB87E.jpg?itok=FXc-j5bb

The dollar roller-coastered notably today - lunging down on the FOMC statement then spiking higher on Powell's taper comments...

See Chart:

Bloomberg dollar spot

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6494.jpg?itok=xG9zDlaV

Evergrande dominated commodity-land overnight and then The fed dominated this afternoon...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6EF2.jpg?itok=FYTURIbf

Gold mirrored the dollar with an initial spike followed by a tumble..

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-09-22_12-07-22.jpg?itok=zN1stPnu

Finally, why does everyone care so much about the Fed's taper? Simple, stupid! It's all that matters... it's the only thing!!!

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm4E9B.jpg?itok=cCURQP6G

How long before the market demands 'more'?

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/taper-tantrum-20

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

Jail was not the dreams of Haitians. They were inspired by Am-dream that is death

Biden To Stick Haitian Immigrants In Gitmo, Seeks Contractor With 'Creole-Speaking Guards'

Kids in barbed-wire cages?

….

This inhumane behavior happens with blacks we imported from Africa as slaves. Now it happens to Haitian blacks. They will receive pay for their work but worse than minimum salary in US. Slave & racism wk hand on hand now. El sueño ameircano ya no existe ni para los pobres de America: devino utopía.

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FDA Agrees Awith Advisors, Limits Booster Jabs To Older & Immuno-compromised Americans

So much for President Biden's nationwide booster jab rollout..

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Biden's Debt Limit Game Of Chicken

If they have the stomach for it, Republicans can win this game and force the Democrats to “own” their spending spree.

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

US & Israel Restart Secret 'Plan B' Talks On Iran As Alternative To Nuke Deal

Working group likely focused on plotting covert espionage & counter-Iran pressure campaign...

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Los creyentes en los ‘milagros’ del CV-vaccine se volvieron ateos como Bolsonaro

De Blasio Whines As Brazil's Bolsonaro Brazenly Defies UN's Vaccine "Mandate"

by Tyler Durden

Bolsonaro also turned down a personal offer from British PM Boris Johnson to receive a dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

It looks extremely likely that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro violated the UN's vaccination mandate - which is being enforced via the "honor system" - when he spoke at the General Assembly on Tuesday.

Bolsonaro has been accused of being "anti-vaxx", and has refused to get vaccinated because he recovered from a mild case of COVID last year. Bolsonaro said during his opening address that while his administration supports vaccination efforts, he doesn't support health passports or vaccine mandates. He also mentioned that 90% of the country's adult population had received at least one dose.

….

Como se explica el ateismo de Bolsonaro?: El fue afectado por la vacuna. Esto no habría ocurrido si él hubiese cuidado su immune system. Creer que la vacuna previene la pandemia es un cuento para idiotas. Lo dicen asi los Miles de muertos en el mundo.

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Un ateo de peso en el US:

Sen. Johnson: Health Agencies Are "Ignoring Natural Immunity"

“We’re ignoring natural immunity, even though the Israeli study now shows it’s 27 times more effective,”

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No dicen como fortalecer el immune system y es simple: cambiar la dieta alimentaria hacia las verduras y raíces (beets++), eliminar el pork y otras carnes e incorporar el salmon chileno 2 o 3 veces por semana con medio vasito de vino merlot + dos o mas vitaminas (D3-E) plus media pastilla de otras vitaminas (zink ++). Hay que practicar esta nueva religión todos los días durante la cena y luego mirar TV y a dormir. Quienes practicamos esto nos va muy bien.

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Explosive inequality Will kill us before the WW3, if happens.

America 2021: Inequality Is Now Baked In

This complete capture of all avenues of regulation and governance can only end one way, a kind of hyper-stagflation...

….

El Sistema neoliberal ha creado desigualdad explosiva a nivel mundial. Solo los millonarios viven bien y los pobres empiezan a estallar en las calles del mundo. Se les responde con balas y pronto tendremos rebeldes armados destruyendo bancos y casas de millonarios si no pagan el ramson. Las contradicciones internas entre los ricos están destruyendo el imperio y como ayer tendrán que ceder su paso a nuevos sistemas donde se respeto el PUBLIC NEED (igualdad de derechos civiles (buena salud, educación, casa y salario para todos) y se limite y se controle (tobin tax) el PRIVATE GREED. A esto apuntan los rebeldes del mundo y esta lucha no tiene pierde. VENCEREMOS!

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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

- European Commission Yet Undecided on AUKUS Deal Response

- Int'l Support Group for Lebanon Urges Government to Take Active Measures to Ease Crisis

- The Cypriot Caveat: Why Erdogan Shouldn't Call Russia Out on Crimea?

- Einstein’s 'Most Valuable Manuscript Ever' on Theory of Relativity May Fetch up to $4 Mlm at Auction Yo lo vendo por 4mil USD

- United Nations General Assembly 76th Session: Day Two

- Moscow: Washington Manipulates Visas to Put Pressure on Other Countries

- Xi Jinping Vows China Will Never ‘Invade or Bully’ States, Calls to Reject ‘Zero-Sum Games’

- Nuclear Power, Food and Other Industries Affected by UK CO2 Shortage, Which is Spilling into Europe

- German Energy Ministry Believes Russia Fulfilling Gas Supplies Obligations

- US House Passes Bill Compensating 'Victims' of Enigmatic 'Havana Syndrome'