KEEP YOUR EYES ON SAUDI ARABIA
by on October
23, 2013
http://ftmdaily.com/daily-briefing/keep-your-eyes-on-the-saudis/
Saudi
Arabia provides the U.S. with oil and props up our dollar in exchange for
weapons and occasional military support. If the U.S. decides that this
arrangement is no longer beneficial, there are likely many other emerging
nations who would love to take their place.
by Jerry Robinson, FTMDaily.com Editor-in-Chief
In case you haven’t heard by now,
tensions are intensifying between the world’s largest net oil exporter, Saudi
Arabia, and the world’s lone superpower, the United States.
In a series of unprecedented moves
designed to provoke attention from the West, the Saudis:
1) Abruptly chose not to deliver a scheduled address at the United Nations General
Assembly.
2) Refused a coveted seat on the United Nations Security
Council, after aggressively campaigning for the position for at least a year.
But it was the recent decision by
Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan Al Saud, to “scale
back cooperation” with the U.S. on Syria, that firmly established a downward
spiral in U.S.-Saudi relations.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal:
“Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief
told European diplomats this weekend that he plans to scale back cooperating
with the U.S. to arm and train Syrian rebels in protest of Washington’s policy
in the region.”
Bandar added that the oil-rich kingdom’s
decision to refuse a seat on the UN Security Council was “a message for the US,
not the UN.”
If you are familiar with the petrodollar
arrangement that exists between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the news of
a potential fallout in U.S.-Saudi relations should be cause for concern. (If
you are not familiar with the petrodollar system and how it underpins the U.S.
dollar, you should start here.)
WHY
ARE THE SAUDIS SO ANGRY?
The tensions between the U.S. and
Saudi Arabia (perhaps the world’s oddest couple) come after several disputes
over Washington’s policy decisions within the Middle East.
Let’s briefly examine these points of tensions between the
two allies.
IRAN
Iran is Saudi Arabia’s mortal enemy.
The two nations have very different interpretations of Islam, and their
political philosophies and views on how to govern the Middle East could not be
more different. The Iranians believe that the Saudis have perverted Islam by
embracing materialism and befriending the West (i.e. infidels). The Iranians,
who are predominantly Shi’ite, openly long for a restoration of an Islamic
Caliphate. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caliphate
)
To this end, the Saudis have long
accused the Iranians of exploiting the Shi’ite populations within Arab
countries in order to overthrow the Sunni-controlled monarchies. Since the
Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has been cut off from the West and viewed as
an enemy. However, recent nuclear talks between the Obama administration and
Iran’s new leadership, under President Hassan Rouhani, have the Saudi Royal
Family deeply concerned that current sanctions against Iran may be lifted. Even
worse, the Saudis fear that Iran could once again gain international
legitimacy. So far, the peace talks between Iran and the West have been
productive, with another round of talks scheduled for November. The Saudis
remain livid. (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israel-pm-partial-deal-nuclear-iran-20655881
)
SYRIA
As the primary supporter (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/13/world/middleeast/syrian-rebels-say-saudi-arabia-is-stepping-up-weapons-deliveries.html?_r=0
) of the Syrian “rebels,” the Saudis
were greatly invested in a U.S. decision to launch airstrikes against the Assad
regime back in August. In the weeks leading up to the planned airstrikes, Saudi
leaders requested detailed U.S. plans to protect Saudi’s vast oil fields in the
Eastern Province from potential blowback or sabotage. Tensions began to flare
when the Saudis were informed that U.S. military forces had no plans to protect
the entire region. The Saudis angrily responded with a warning that the kingdom
would seek other defense partners who placed a greater value on Saudi’s oil
supplies.
Then, the dispute grew even deeper
when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad suddenly agreed to a peace deal, brokered
by Russia, that included a plan to disarm the country’s arsenal of chemical
weapons. The Saudis were outraged when President Obama embraced the peace deal
and made the decision to scrap plans to bomb Syria.
In an official statement, one Saudi official stated:
“Allowing the ruling regime in Syria
to kill its people and burn them with chemical weapons in front of the entire
world and without any deterrent or punishment is clear proof and evidence of
the U.N. Security Council’s inability to perform its duties and shoulder its
responsibilities.”
U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, recently responded to
these Saudi concerns:
“We know that the Saudis were
obviously disappointed that the (Syrian) strike didn’t take place and had
questions about some of the other things that may be happening in the region… I am convinced we are on the same page as
we are proceeding forward and I look forward to working very closely with our
Saudi friends and allies”.
Because the Saudis remain intent on removing Assad from power, their response
was to decrease military cooperation with the U.S. while increasing their
alliance with other partners, including Jordan and France.
EGYPT
Last July, the U.S.-Saudi relations
were strained when the Saudis backed the Egyptian military’s overthrow of the
country’s democratically elected president, Mohammad Morsi. The U.S., on the
other hand, provided support to President Morsi and opposed the Saudi-backed
coup. In the wake of the coup, the U.S. declared it would cut foreign aid money
to Egypt. The Saudis responded with an announcement that they would replace any
foreign aid to Egypt lost as a result of the coup.
BAHRAIN
Back in 2011, U.S.-Saudi relations
came under pressure when Washington failed to back the Saudis in condemning the
Shi’ite uprising in Bahrain. Bahrain, which has a Sunni-ruled government but a
Shi’ite majority population, is an important ally to the Saudis. The Saudis
feared that the Shi’ite uprising in Bahrain could spill over into the rest of
the Arabian peninsula. The loyalties of the U.S., however, were divided over
Bahrain as the country’s strategic location on the Persian Gulf serves as the
headquarters for the Fifth Fleet of the U.S. Navy. Since 1944, the U.S. Fifth
Fleet has safeguarded the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s
total oil supply passes each day. Considering that the U.S. has spent $8 trillion (http://oilchangeproject.nationalsecurityzone.org/choke-points/
) securing the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. was unlikely to rock the boat with
Bahrain’s government. Regardless, the Saudis were angered at America’s failure
to provide support.
ISRAEL/PALESTINE
The Saudis have complained that the
West has failed to deliver a long-awaited peace to the Israeli-Palestinian
issue. The Saudis, who clearly side with the Palestinians, have become
impatient towards what they view as incompetence on the part of the UN in
resolving the issue. While it seems that the elusive peace between Israel and
the Palestinian people may be closer
than ever before, (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.553732
) it is doubtful that the Saudis will be
happy with the final outcome.
SO, WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Despite the sharp escalation of
tensions between the U.S. and the Saudis,
both countries continue
to share many similar goals, and their strengths complement each other. The
U.S. possesses immense military might while Saudi Arabia boasts unrivaled
intelligence sources within the region. This is a potent combination amid
constant instability in the Middle East, so cooperation between the two
countries is likely to continue. The two countries openly share intelligence in an effort to counter
“terrorism,” in
such places as Afghanistan and Yemen. For example, in 2011, the Saudis permitted
the U.S. to build a secret drone base in order to launch attacks against
radical elements within Yemen.
But the original “oil-for-dollars” arrangement
( http://ftmdaily.com/preparing-for-the-collapse-of-the-petrodollar-system/
) that was set up back in the 1970s is certainly becoming more brittle as the
U.S. has become less dependent upon Middle East oil and as other oil-thirsty
nations seek to replace the U.S. China,
for example, is now the world’s largest net oil importer and much of those
imports are coming from Saudi Arabia.
------------------------- See Figure
SAUDI CRUDE OIL EXPORT BY DESTINATION (2012)
Fart East 54%
Mediterranean 16%
Europe 15%
US 15%
Source: EIA US
Energy Information Administration, APEX
--------------------------------------------------
But remember, despite Saudi differences with the U.S., the monarchy is even more at
odds with China and Russia, as they have strongly opposed intervention in Syria.
In addition, they, along with all of the BRICS nations, are strongly allied
with Iran, whose Hezbollah militias are supporting Assad’s regime against the
Saudi-backed Syrian rebels.
Of course, another possibility is
that the recent moves by Saudi Arabia may represent deep fractures within the
kingdom itself. For example, during a recent meeting in Paris between U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal,
there was reportedly no mention of Prince Bandar’s concerns or comments about
“pulling away” from the U.S. This could suggest internal debate within the
kingdom itself on how to best handle recent policy decisions made by the U.S.
In the final analysis, it seems that
U.S.-Saudi relations have become less relevant in recent years as their
interests appear to be diverging. After all, Saudi Arabia remains the world’s
#1 exporter of Wahabi extremist jihadi Islamic terrorism, even as the U.S.
claims to be fighting such terrorism. For decades, the Saudis have relied upon
the U.S. to act as their mercenary in the Middle East. In exchange, the Saudis
have agreed 1) to accept only U.S. dollars for their oil and 2) to hold most of
their foreign assets, estimated at nearly $700 billion, in U.S. dollars.
In essence, the Saudis provide us
with oil and prop up our dollar in exchange for weapons and occasional military
support. If the U.S. decides that this arrangement is no longer beneficial,
there are likely many other emerging nations who would love to take their
place.
===============
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===============
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