JUL 16 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
by Tyler Durden
"Consumers’ complaints about rising prices on homes, vehicles, and household durables has reached an all-time record."
For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations ("Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!") and consumers (""This Is Not Transitory": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that "Inflation Is About To Explode "Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb"") and Bank of America (which "Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's "Transitory" Argument") now openly claiming that the Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as to warn "policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s."
But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well, higher prices.
Presenting Exhibit A: Last month we observed that anticipating an end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.
See Exhibit A
Consumer Spending intentions
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spending%20intentions.jpg?itok=XsDqyv05
The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...
See Chart:
Major Appliances buying intentions Monthly change
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/appliance%20buying%20intentions.jpg?itok=LoNEiOHl
... and homes...
See Chart:
Home buying intentions monthly change
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/home%20buyign%20intentions.jpg?itok=sy_EU0Jf
This confirms what we noted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.
See Chart:
Home builder sentiment vs Home buyer sentiment
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD575_0.jpg?itok=JbX2hGN2
Fast forward to today when we just got Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey. Here things quickly got ugly, because not only did all the sentiment indicators miss across the board...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6073_0.jpg?itok=oPWDp6YZ
… but in a stark reversal of last month's "good news" when inflation expectations dropped slightly, in the preliminary July number, 1 year inflation expectations unexpectedly exploded higher, from 4.3% to 4.8%, surpassing the May high and printing at the highest level since June 2008 (confirming the NY Fed's own survey of consumer expectations that this is anything but transitory), with 5-10 year inflation expectations also rising from 2.8% to 2.9%, pouring cold water on any "transitory" argument.
See Chart:
1-year Inflation expectations: NY Fed Consumer survey & UMisch
Continue reading & see more charts up to this conclusion:
One thing is certain: six months from today - if today's soaring inflation has not faded away - the US economy will be far, far uglier.
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ONE BANK LAYS OUT HOW MARKETS WILL DESCEND INTO A STAGFLATIONARY HELL
by Tyler Durden
This article is so
good for you to read
it's for premium members only.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-bank-lays-out-how-markets-descend-stagflationary-hell
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BIG-TECH BREAKS WEEKLY WIN STREAK, BONDS SHRUG OFF INFLATION-FEST
It was a week of transitory-trampling inflation prints .
It was a week of transitory-trampling inflation prints with CPI, PPI, Import/Export Prices, UMich inflation expectations, and the concomitant 'hangover' as buyers' sentiment (for homes/cars/durables) crashed due to the soaring prices... and stocks did not like it (especially Small Caps). As we noted earlier, there was a big drop in gamma after the open's OPEX which enabled today's pain (the last 3 Fridays have been big up days)... Nasdaq has been up 8 weeks in a row before this week...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-07-16_12-57-08.jpg?itok=XhyyOqii
S&P 500 e-mini futures have printed all-time highs in 13 of the last 16 sessions. This was the first weekly drop in Nasdaq since mid-May, and the worst week for Russell 2000 since Jan 2021... and worst week for Small Caps since Oct 2020.
See Chart:
Small Caps vs Big-Tech continue to track real yields...
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD2E5.jpg?itok=vRuJCdsz
Small Caps rebound back over its 50- and 100-DMA did not hold this week...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-07-16_12-39-07.jpg?itok=7r5H0siR
Breadth refuses to confirm the overall exuberance of this recent run...
See Chart
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2110.jpg?itok=l8D06uWk
Energy stocks are in correction, down almost 14% from their early June highs...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB68E_0.jpg?itok=s9zzjRwj
Notably, the market's largest stocks (the FAAMG complex which now makes up ~23% of the S&P 500's market cap), has not performed well this week, seeing heavy selling pressure hit each bounce
See Chart:
FAAMAG Stocks
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm4C68.jpg?itok=rMFiwaXZ
Banks were mixed after earnings this week with BofA worst and MS best...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmECCD.jpg?itok=rHmEle-p
"Most Shorted" stocks tumbled almost 8% this week, the worst week (or best if you're short) since Oct 2020...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm9D6C.jpg?itok=CsIVx1KD
UST 30Y yields ended with the lowest weekly close since Jan 29th...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm22D6.jpg?itok=cAMi4KpR
10 Years Real yields tumbled to their lowest (most negative) since mid-Feb (suggesting more upside for gold)...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm8AC5.jpg?itok=xE_wxEy4
The dollar ended higher on the week...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmE257_0.jpg?itok=VdfPXRhN
Oil's worst week since March (first 3-week losing streak in over a year) as WTI hit a $70 handle after UAE headlines...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-07-16_11-56-56.jpg?itok=Rm7l0UgN
Finally, as @Not_Jim_Cramer notes, the plunge in the S&P's real dividend yield has not ended well in the past for stocks...
See Chart:
S&P 500 Index Real Dividend Yield
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/E6YcdsoVcAAcVYc.jpg?itok=OLE8oZ0Z
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-breaks-weekly-win-streak-bonds-shrug-inflation-fest
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
Nuke missiles are already there. We are copping the shameless story of 1961
DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS UNITE TO DEMAND US INVASION OF CUBA
"We should’ve been in Cuba many many years ago… just like we went in and liberated Kuwait."
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Cuban REV is not for sale. PATRIA o MUERTE: VENCEREMOS! Dice el pueblo. The real news is that is coming more nuke-M from RU-China. It was predictable.
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China will take care of replacing WIFI that Biden is cutting in Cuba. It is blackmail
BIDEN MULLS INTERVENTION IN CUBA TO PROVIDE WIFI REMOTELY
"They have cut off access to the internet. We are considering whether we have the technological ability to reinstate that access."
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Given what they say every day, how would you tell the difference between SOLEMN OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS AND MISCHIEVOUS SATIRE?
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TAIBBI: THE MYTH OF THE WINNABLE CULTURE WAR
"Rhetorical coercion TENDS TO BACKFIRE..."
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'DEFUND THE POLICE' ADVOCATE REP. CORI BUSH SPENT $54,000 ON PRIVATE SECURITY COMPANY: FEC
Awkward...
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What Happens When The Chickens Come Home To Roost?
... the Fed and the Treasury are locked in. They cannot reverse course without causing a major upset...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialism, D rest in limbo
BETTING ON THE EVERYTHING BUBBLE: GOVERNMENTS WORLDWIDE ARE TESTING THE NEW LIMITS OF DEBT
Those advocating for the debt say it could usher in global growth. Those opposing it make the obvious case that eventually the laws of economics will get the best of things and we'll have to 'pay the piper'.
See Chart: https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/debt%201_1.png?itok=3D9mqwIa
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Sabotaging Olympics in JA with the profitable terrorist game of Covid-19
OLYMPIC STAFFER HOSPITALIZED IN FIRST SERIOUS COVID CASE TIED TO SUMMER GAMES
Despite all the precautions, the Olympics seems almost predestined to be labeled a "super spreader event"...
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IS Japan an easy puppet to be manipulate & defeated? Big Sport Games in US has not been suspended. Why Japan?. Are they afraid of WW3? IF this happens America will be demolished and US Nation will be divided. This thread is only a terrorist-profitable business with no chances of real event. What JA should do is vaccinate their population and untied their nexus with Penta-Nato affaires. JA has the right to declare NEUTRALITY in all events related to WW3. WW3 is only a US BLACKMAIL that bring money to big corp in USA. I repeat: if WW3 happens the US will be demolished and we will se here many Hiroshima-Nagazki explosions. We are not ready for that and IF ww3 REV WILL HAPPEN: all major industrial business will be transfer to workers Coops & local Govermts. The rich will be expropriated as the NEW DEAL OF FDR did it in 1935.
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- No Logic, Just Confusion: Travel Industry Fumes Over UK Gov't U-Turn on France Quarantine Rules
- Over 90 People Killed, 618 Injured in Floods in Germany's Ahrweiler District
- First Case of COVID-19 Reportedly Detected in Olympic Village in Tokyo
- Facebook Board Member Says Free Speech is No 'Absolute Human Right'
- Thirty-Three Suspects Arrested in European Clampdown on Child Trafficking
- Convicted Fraudster Claims Jeffrey Epstein Linked to Israeli Intelligence
- Rare Case of Person Infected With Monkeypox Virus Detected in Texas
- Wall Street Hits Brakes on 3 Weeks of Gains as Tech Stocks Crumble
- US Activists Urge Biden to Lift Sanctions Fueling Cuba’s Economic Crisis
- Facebook Slams Biden Over ‘Killing People’ Remark, Says Platform is ‘Saving Lives’
- Arizona Report Find Only 182 Cases of Potential Voter Fraud Out of 3.4 Mill Ballots
-John Bolton Says Trump Would Not Have Done Coup Due to Lack of ‘Advance Thinking’
-Ivanka Reportedly Spent ‘Several Hours’ Urging Trump to Dissuade Capitol Rioters
-US Seeks to Flex Regional Readiness in Pacific Deployment of Dozens of F-22 Raptors
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