MAR 30-31 2021 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
CME TO LAUNCH MICRO-BITCOIN FUTURES; OPTIONS TRADERS BETTING ON $80K BY END-APRIL
by Tyler Durden
Good Article but:
TD Still refusing to share Info: using very tiny letters in key-Chart
...around $330 mm notional of contracts
are outstanding in $80,000 strike April Calls.
While chaos reigns in various parts of the US equity and bond markets, BITCOIN has been quietly surging higher in the last few days.
In fact, US rate forecast volatility is now higher than bitcoin's realized risk...
See Chart
Interest rate implied volatility vs Bitcoin Realized Volatility
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmEF25.jpg?itok=yOXzYJB2
Ahead of President Biden's pitch tomorrow for another $3 trillion in spending, the crypto patch has been bid and helped today by the news that PayPal will launch "Checkout With Crypto" - a cryptocurrency service for merchants across the US.
"This is the first time you can seamlessly use cryptocurrencies in the same way as a credit card or a debit card inside your PayPal wallet,” PayPal CEO Dan Schulman told Reuters.
Checkout With Crypto service will enable those holding cryptocurrencies on the platform to spend it with all of PayPal's merchants. Supported cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Litecoin; the payments company will, however, convert the cryptocurrency to fiat money for the actual payment.
Ahead of President Biden's pitch tomorrow for another $3 trillion in spending, the crypto patch has been bid and helped today by the news that PayPal will launch "Checkout With Crypto" - a cryptocurrency service for merchants across the US.
"This is the first time you can seamlessly use cryptocurrencies in the same way as a credit card or a debit card inside your PayPal wallet,” PayPal CEO Dan Schulman told Reuters.
Checkout With Crypto service will enable those holding cryptocurrencies on the platform to spend it with all of PayPal's merchants. Supported cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Litecoin; the payments company will, however, convert the cryptocurrency to fiat money for the actual payment.
“We think it is a transitional point where cryptocurrencies move from being predominantly an asset class that you buy, hold and or sell to now becoming a legitimate funding source to make transactions in the real world at millions of merchants,” Schulman added.
Also buoying bitcoin prices is the news that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has unveiled plans to launch a new Bitcoin derivatives product that will enable traders to speculate on fractional units of the flagship digital currency.
Tim McCourt, CME Group’s global head of equity index and alternative investment products, explaine:
“The introduction of Micro Bitcoin futures responds directly to demand for smaller-sized contracts from a broad array of clients and will offer even more choice and precision in how participants can trade regulated Bitcoin futures in a transparent and efficient manner at CME Group.”
CME launched its Bitcoin futures contract in December 2017. The Chicago Board Options Exchange, Its larger crosstown rival, was the first to introduce the derivatives contract during the same month but has since abandoned Bitcoin futures altogether.
CME has noted a steady uptick in crypto derivatives trading since the first Bitcoin futures contract launched more than three years ago.
Perhaps that is one reason why bitcoin options traders have started to build a sizable position in call options (levered bets on higher prices), betting on prices above $80,000 by the end of April.
See Key Chart
BTC Options open Interest by Strike Price. See Current Price
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-03-30_8-13-08.jpg?itok=VcuQuG29
According to the latest data, 5,580 bitcoin (around $330 mm notional) of contracts are outstanding in $80,000 strike April Calls.
Notably, as CoinMinks reports, significant volume has also accumulated around contracts with a strike price of $120,000.
This means that some traders believe the bitcoin price will more than double in the next five weeks.
According to data aggregator Skew, probability estimates based on market data for the April 30 contract suggest that options traders may be a bit too optimistic. The analytics platform gives it a probability of just 6.19% that bitcoin will top $80,000 (and only a 2.15% chance that the bitcoin price will even reach $100,000 by the April 30 expiration date).
The upcoming Coinbase IPO may also be a catalyst for the upside call-buying.
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NOTE: Sorry it was my fault.. my glasses. I have to change it
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Exelent article below:
HERE COME THE MOST STUNNING BASE-EFFECT CHARTS SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION
by Tyler Durden
"We have liftoff."
In just a few days, US high frequency economic data will lap March 2020 when the US economy literally shut down and sent all economic indicators in freefall to a degree not seen since the Great Depression (and in many cases, more).
When that happens, while March/April economic data will rise only modestly compared to the previous month, it will be a veritable explosion compared to the shutdown a year ago. This is the so-called "base effect" and while many economists will ignore it, especially when it comes to inflation data, the impact for many will be jarring especially when investors see charts that have gone, for lack of a better word, vertical.
To preview the annual change base effect that is coming in everything from retail sales, to income and spending, to housing data, to jobs and unemployment, we have pulled some of the most representative real-time indicators available from JPMorgan and Bank of America, starting with what is perhaps the most illustrative chart of all: JPM's spending tracker on the bank's own consumer (debit and credit) cards.
See Chart:
Chase Consumer Card Spending Tracker
Here the 65% surge in spending is not because of an actual surge in spending March, but because spending last March imploded. Which is why to normalize for the post-March 2020 shock, banks will likely show not just the Y/Y chart, but also a chart comparing to 2-year ago or, better yet, a pre-covid blended trend as JPM has done in the chart above.
Bank of America published a similar chart, showing a huge jump in Y/Y card spending, especially among households who received stimulus payments - and this time on both a 1 and 2 year basis - while household that did not receive stimulus saw a roughly 30% jump in Y/Y spending due to the base effect, and only a modest increase in 2Y spending.
See Chart:
Total Card Spending
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spending%20bofa%202_0.jpg?itok=GMfWuGjn
Here are some other charts showing how the 1-Year, but not 2-Year change, has gone vertical:
See Charts:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bofa%20spending%20yoy%203.jpg?itok=u6lRD965
But nowhere is the base effect more visible than in the 1-year spending on airlines, where we see a very clear "lift off" formation in progress.
See Chart:
Spending on airlines, based on BAC aggregated Card data
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/base%20effect%20explosion.jpg?itok=uzEjTeVb
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-come-most-stunning-base-effect-charts-great-depression
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by Tyler Durden
Is the 10Y Treasury yield about to blow out above 2%, the level most on Wall Street believe will crash stocks?
Treasury yields blew out overnight (with the belly in particular feeling the heat: 5s +5.5bps, 10s +6.0bps) during the Asian session in continuation of yesterday's move higher, as the usual suspects - Japanese commercial banks - resumed selling in droves (see "Morgan Stanley Identifies The Source Of Massive Treasury Selling"), although it wasn't clear what if any catalyst sparked the selling.
See Chart:
5, 10Y TSY Yields
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/5-10%20yields.jpg?itok=HWqeN_is
Trying to make some sense of the latest move in yields Nomura's Charlie McElligott offered three reasons for the return of the reflation theme:
- vaccine renormalization
- fiscal stimulus now circulating into the “real economy”, and
- the expected large upside surprise in Friday’s NFP data now increasingly being priced-in, whose release McElligott notes "comes dangerously on the illiquid ‘Good Friday’ holiday-shortened session, risking a disorderly move"
We won't focus much on topics 1 and 2 which we have covered extenisvely elsewhere on multiple occasions, but instead we will preview what may be a truly blockbuster payrolls report on Friday, coming right at a time when stocks are closed and when bonds are open only until noon.
So why focus on Friday's jobs report? Because one month after the February Payrolls printed at 379K, nearly double the consensus estimate of 198K, Wall Street expects the labor market to resume its torrid upward trajectory with a whopping 650K print.
While on the surface this will likely send yields sharply higher as it provides fresh fuel to the reflation narrative, a chart published today by JPMorgan took our breath away. In the bank's latest "quant and econ dashboard report", JPMorgan compares the BLS payrolls series with its own alternative data-based tracker of jobs data. Remarkably, it found that after a period of almost uniform convergence between the two series, the March "alternative data" print was a whopper, one which implies the matched BLS print will be around 1.8 million jobs!
See Chart:
Job tracker based on alternative data: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/BLS%20forecast%20JPM.jpg?itok=oiGlYwMw
To be sure there are several other reflationary considerations laid out by McElligott, which we note below...
- With the market sniffing the pull-forward of US QE taper in addition to then likelihood of “front-loaded” Fed hikes, 5s are in a really tricky spot, and this is why 5s30s—which was really the “reflation steepener” of choice for so long last year—has now actually stalled-out, sitting around this 1.50 level for approximately two months now
- The better the reopening data gets, the more likely it is that we more of this inflection from phase 1 steepening “reflation feel-good” as the long-end reflects higher growth- and inflation- expectations, to the phase 2 flattening “Fed tightening” stage, where the front-end / belly leading the repricing ahead of Fed policy adjustment—with the potential for this to begin evidencing itself to markets by the time of the next Fed SEP in June potentially needing to reflect an improved forecast
In this context, imagine what happens to the 10Y - and certainly the belly and the 5Y - if we do get a 1.8MM print (which has quickly emerged as the whisper number for Friday), smashing expectations by 3x, and unleashing a volley of TSY selling as the herd panics and dumps Treasurys faster than you can say a "failed 7Y auction." Perhaps the only question in this "blowout payrolls" scenario is whether the 10Y - which today rose as high as 1.78% will find support at 2.00% or will it blow out above the level most on Wall Street (according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey)...
See Chart:
2.0% on the 10-year treasury could be the level of reckoning for stocks
... agrees is the trigger for chaos not just in the bond but also stock market.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/18-million-jobs-friday
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A "VERY SURPRISED" JPMORGAN CALCULATES THE DAMAGE FROM THE ARCHEGOS COLLAPSE
"In normal circumstances... we would have suspected industry losses of $2.5-5bn. We now suspect losses in the range of $5-10bn."
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STOCKS SINK AS FED'S KAPLAN ADMITS "CHALLENGES" DUE TO "EXCESS RISK-TAKING"
"There’s no question that financial assets, broadly, are at elevated valuation levels...that could ultimately create challenges..."
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"MISSING PRICES": HALF THE ENTIRE US CPI IS BASED ON ESTIMATES
"missing prices" make inflation-targeting a meaningless policy tool.
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Xenophobia is rooted deep in the mind of delinquents with uniform
ELDERLY ASIAN WOMAN ATTACKED ON NEW YORK STREET... SECURITY GUARD RESPONDS BY CLOSING DOOR
“F**k you, you don’t belong here...”
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Delinquents like you don’t belong to America too. You deserve be in jail
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Before covid-19 we used chemical weapons since VietNam war. Penta-lab req investig
WASHINGTON SLAMS BEIJING FOR OBSTRUCTING WHO PROBE INTO COVID ORIGINS
"Although the team has concluded that a laboratory leak is the least likely hypothesis, this requires further investigation..."
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It would be idiotic also no t consider polit-uses (fascist cotrol of freedom) with vac-pas
"Our government, our sports teams, our concert promoters damned well better put together something where you can show your vaccine receipt..."
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A girl of 18 is still under control of parents: that is a family rule. If State rule over=extor
The investigation was reportedly opened during the final months of the Trump Administration...
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SCHOOLS GONE WOKE: ONE AMERICA EDUCATOR SPEAKS OUT
"The pendulum will not swing back because the woke movement is not a pendulum; it is a steamroller..."
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Nice Article: Must read!
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SPUTNIK : https://sputniknews.com/
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Putin Tells Merkel, Macron Russia Ready to Restore Interaction With EU, If Sees Interest Dicen que el gallo Viejo con el ala mata y creo que es cierto con Putin
- US Dept of Educ Sued by 33 Students Over LGBTQ Discriminat at Religious Colleges
- US-Mex Disclosure Policy Disagree Hindering Anti-Cartel Efforts Amid Migrant Surge
- Oops, I Did It Again: Biden’s Pup Major Involved in Second Biting Incident
- China Praises Work of WHO Experts on COVID Origin After Visit to Wuhan
- Venezuela Receives Batch of Russia's EpiVacCorona Vaccine for Study
- UN Probe Finds French Airstrike in Mali Killed 19 Civilians in January
- Honduran Prest’s Brother Sentenced to Life in Prison Over Massive Drug Traffick
- US Leaving Afghanistan by May 1 Deadline ‘Dangerous’
- WHO CV-19 Origins Report Finds Wuhan Lab Theory ‘Extremely Unlikely’
- One Person Killed, Seven More Injured as Blast Occurs in Syria's Damascus
- ‘Crimes Against Wildlife’: Nearly 200 Baby Tortoises Wrapped in Plastic Seized at Galápagos Airport In Ecuador
- Chief in Pentagon 'Reassigned' Amid Probe for Meme Comparing Trump to Hitler
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MAR 30 -31 2021 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
FEM: Lo antipatriarcal: importancia en construc de proy revol RAH
COL: FALLO HISTÓR CONTRA OFICIAL DEL ESMAD
ALC: LA CONFUSIÓN DESINTEGRADORA Facundo Di Vincenzo
COL: ExxonMobil, la nueva empresa criminal hace fracking en COL
Cuba: Las vacunas cubanas anti-Covid-19 Soberana 02 y Abdala
Ecuador: Lenín Moreno y la CIA contra Andrés Arauz Katu A
US: VOTO POR VOTO David Brooks
China : Uso de la expresión “destino común de la humanidad” M H
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
"RU retoma su papel de potencia mundial": Maduro aboga por "mundo pluripolar" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/388014-maduro-relaciones-venezuela-rusia
Revelan imágenes de minut previos al crimen de salvadoreña Victoria Salazar en MX https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/387984-revelan-imagenes-previas-victoria-salazar-mexico
Cae la cúpula de las Fuerzas Armadas en Brasil por primera vez desde el restablec d dem https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/387978-jefes-fuerzas-armadas-brasil-sustituidos
Bolsonaro esta fuera de carrera política, solo lo salva el fraude. Si ocurre hay REV
Putin, Merkel y Macron conversan sobre "registro y produc conjunta de Sputnik V en UE" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/388005-putin-merkel-macron-conversar-sputnik-ue
Esto es un baldazo de agua helada para NATO que aun tiene base en Alemania
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
No Hay noticia nueva
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
Video: No Time for Israel to Celebrate Election “Victory” By South F
Stand Up to Tyranny: How to Respond to Evils of Our Age By J-N W
Hidden Danger: Digitalisation and Mind Control. “The Prerequisites For Total Dictatorship” By Dr. Rudolf Hänsel,
Can We Trust US’s CV-19 Vaccine Injury Statistics? By RG and GN
Building Worldwide Nonviolent Resistance to Great Reset By A M
Why Is Everyone in Texas Not Dying? By Jeffrey A. Tucker
Deadly Blood Clots Caused by CV-19 Vaccine By Dr. Joseph Mercola,
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Germany’s foreign minister has signaled that he would like to see a thaw in NATO-Russia relations. But he added that “the ball is in Russia’s court.” Really? Also, as tensions over Taiwan increase
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/519438-nato-russia-taiwan-tensions/
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- 9 Minutes, 29 Seconds: Derek Chauvin Trial Opens with Full Video of George Floyd’s Killing
- Derek Chauvin Defense Blames “George Floyd Himself for His Own Death,” Not the Police “Blood Choke”
- “Crisis of Capitalism”: Roberto Lovato on How U.S. Policies Fuel Migration & Instability
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