Nueva Democracia: Mar 31-Apr 1 2022 SIT ECON y POL

Mar 31-Apr 1 2022 SIT ECON y POL

ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

THE YIELD CURVE INVERTS: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

by Tyler Durden

Nothing good...

Shortly before the close on Thursday, the closely-watched 2s10s yield curve, better known as the recession harbinger, inverted again for the second time in three days, and this time it will likely fail to bounce as the US slides ever closer to its recession D-Day.

See Chart:

Ukraine ‘De-Escalation’

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20-%202022-03-31T210432.578.jpg?itok=iDpB_f3g

To be sure, the Fed and most of permabullish sellside strategists have spent most of their time in recent days to "explain away" why the yield curve doesn't actually matter, with the Fed going so far as penning an absolutely idiotic paper titled "(Don’t Fear) The Yield Curve, Reprise", in which the authors who have never had a real job in their lives reference FDR in making the point that the 2s10s is only notable in that "it can only make things worse if investors not only fear the prospect of a recession, but at the same time, are spooked by that fear itself, which is mirrored in inverted term spreads." Instead of addressing a level of stupidity that once upon a time was prohibited at the Fed, we will merely show a chart comparing the 2s10s and superimpose the Consumer Optimism Gap (as defined by the spread between the Conference Board Expectations and Current situation), to show the clear correlation and that a plunge in the 2s10s coincides with a collapse in optimism... and the start of a recession.

See Chart:

2s10s vs Consumer optimism gap

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/consumer%20optimism%20gap.jpg?itok=JbapiE3S

Not convinced? That's ok, because thanks to DB's Jim Reid we have a full presentation (available to professional subs) which shows exactly what happens after every single inversion. Below we excerpt some of the key findings:

1. Every recession in the last 70 years has only happened AFTER the 2s10s has inverted. We have now seen an inversion on March 29th intra-day and again on March 31. History would say US recession risks now elevated 12-24 months out.

See chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/from%20inversion%20to%20recession.jpg?itok=Xa04lnLa

Continue reading at:

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-inverts-what-happens-next

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BIDEN'S MASSIVE SPR RELEASE "DOES NOT RESOLVE" UPSIDE RISKS, GOLDMAN WARNS AS IT HIKES 2023 OIL PRICE TARGET TO $115

by Tyler Durden

"...insanity is doing the same thing over and over again

and expecting different results."

The Biden administration confirmed a record large Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of 180 mb over the next six months to fight the "Putin price hike at the pump", with the potential for other countries to release 30 to 50 mb.

As noted earlier, while such a release will help trim prices in the short-term, increasing supply and commensurately reducing the amount of necessary price-induced demand destruction - the sole oil rebalancing mechanism currently available in a world devoid of inventory buffers and supply elasticity - it will lead to higher prices over the longer-term as the government's panicked, political intervention in the energy market which is obviously meant to avoid a Democrat wipeout in the midterms will discourage any rational investing in supply by US majors. Furthermore, a release of inventories is, only a temporary source of supply and in fact, as Goldman notes, lower prices in 2022 support oil demand while slowing the acceleration in shale production, leaving for now a deficit in 2023 with an eventual need to refill the SPR.

As a result, in a note published late on Thursday, Goldman updates its oil supply, demand and price forecasts accordingly, in which the bank is increasing its already expected SPR release to match today’s announcement of 1.2 mb/d over six months, while delaying an expected ramp-up in Iran exports to 3Q22 given delays coming to an agreement and the lag in the required certification for exports to resume.

Separately, Goldman's expectations of a 1 mb/d hit to Chinese demand due to lockdowns in 2Q remains unchanged, with OPEC+ expected to stick to its scheduled quota increases through 3Q22 consistent with today’s decision. Finally, the bank is also increasing the probability of a Moderate Russian export disruption scenario (to 50%), implying a slightly larger loss of supply in our weighted mean outcome.

This leads Goldman to cut its 2H22 Brent price forecast from $135 to $125/bbl while also raising the 2023 Brent forecast from $110 to $115/bbl. In particular, the bank says it doesn't see "today’s decision as resolving oil’s structural deficit, now years in the making." This is consistent with the resilience in long-dated prices today, with Dec-23 Brent remaining the bank's preferred long-term bullish oil trade (with EU Gasoil cracks the preferred short-term oil trade).

Worse, according to Goldman's commodity team, "upsides risks have not been resolved with today’s release" because:

1. Potential logistical bottlenecks to such an unprecedentedly large and long US SPR discharge could reduce its flow rate, with potential congestion on the Gulf Coast in getting to refiners or export terminals.

2. We see risks of a slower shale growth than the 1.1 mb/d we are expecting in 2023, due to the combined effects of rising cost inflation and binding service bottlenecks.

3. The US policy use of an SPR release, a potential deal with Iran, extreme price volatility and the growing risk of a recession next year, are all exacerbating the uncertainty faced by producers, reducing their incentive to invest more.

The bank concludes that since fundamental uncertainty is set to remain extremely high in coming weeks and months despite Biden's action, Goldman reiterates "our conviction for higher oil prices." (full note available to pro subs in the usual place)

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Watch the President deliver remarks on "responding to Putin's Price Hike" at 1330ET:

Open Video at: https://youtu.be/8I7u0bz3YWY

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Update: (1100ET): The White House has released its fact sheet on how the Biden administration will respond to what they are calling "Putin's Price Hike" by releasing 1 million barrels/day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve...

After consultation with allies and partners, the President will announce the largest release of oil reserves in history, putting one million additional barrels on the market per day on average – every day – for the next six months. The scale of this release is unprecedented: the world has never had a release of oil reserves at this 1 million per day rate for this length of time.

This record release will provide a historic amount of supply to serve as bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up.

Which just happens to be when the midterms are held.

This move will reduce the SPR to its lowest absolute level; in 40 years and its lowest level all-time in terms of days-supply...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-30_17-36-22.jpg?itok=49uXdDpM

The goal of Biden’s plan is to create a bridge for U.S. supply until the fall, when domestic production is anticipated to increase, the people said. But OPEC+’s refusal to increase its own production may dampen any effect of the U.S. release.

“It is hard to overstate the scale of this intervention if it bears out,” Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said in a research note.

“It would be the largest draw-down volume announced in the 45-year history of the SPR by a factor of 3.6x.”

But, as Goldman warned below, such a release would therefore not resolve the structural supply deficit, years in the making... and the need for restocking will be a big demand pressure on prices

A large release from America “would reduce the amount of necessary price-induced demand destruction,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Damien Courvalin wrote in a note to clients.

“This would remain, however, a release of oil inventories, not a persistent source of supply for coming years.”

Additionally, Saad Rahim, Trafigura Group's Chief Economist told Bloomberg TV, that the potential SPR release will actually discourage future oil output and could drive forward prices higher, and added that the US is only capable of delivering 400,000 to 500,000 barrels a day of oil from the strategic reserve.

And the modest drop in WTI prices tells you all you need to know about the market's expectations of the success of this intervention...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-31_08-03-00.jpg?itok=vGOV_wB5

Continue reading at:

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/oil-slides-biden-admin-mulls-huge-spr-release-again

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"THEY'RE IN DESPERATE NEED OF CAPITAL" - SOFTBANK HALTS INVESTMENTS AS IT SCRAMBLES TO RAISE CASH

"We don’t expect a turnround anytime soon..."

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FACT: USD is falling down in the global market faster than others. See Ray Dalio ..

DEATH OF DENIAL: PART 1 (WITH APOLOGIES TO AGATHA CHRISTIE)

With equities rallying despite soaring commodities and rising bond yields, we can eliminate one more suspect for the continuing equity rally and US dollar strength.

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Ray Dalio in his book “The changing World Order” p.496, he made it clear the US is Economic decline even when still lead in innovation-technology.

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

IS RUSSIA THE REAL TARGET OF WESTERN SANCTIONS?

Soaring oil prices, energy and food crises on the horizon...is it possible the REAL target of this economic war is us?

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Sanctions is the language for WW3 and we already loss the war in Ukraine

RUSSIAN PALLADIUM AND PLATINUM – TOO IMPORTANT TO SANCTION

If Russian palladium stopped flowing to market, there would be serious problems, especially for the global auto and computer chip industries. And the same, to a lesser extent, goes for Russian platinum supplies.

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RU will punish European Banks & if we do it ‘RU are coming’ will be real

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US-WORLD ISSUES

(Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

GERMAN CHEMICAL GIANT WARNS OF "TOTAL COLLAPSE" IF RUSSIAN GAS SUPPLY CUT

"A delivery stop for a short time would perhaps open the eyes of many - on both sides. It would make clear the magnitude of the consequences," BASF's CEO said.

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US & EU left RU without other choice than get rubles for RU oil, otherwise they collapse

PUTIN SIGNS DECREE ORDERING GAS EXPORTS TO BE HALTED IF BUYERS DON'T PAY IN RUBLES

Looks like Putin wasn't bluffing.

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Previous CH cooperat with the World end up in vaccine that made rich big US Corp

NIH DELETED INFO FROM WUHAN LAB ON COVID-19 GENETIC SEQUENCING, WATCHDOG FOIA FINDS

"It would undermine the official Chinese government claim"

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Perhaps now we have to buy the vaccines from China.So we need a dial w CH

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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

- Swedish Basket Star Suspended From National Team for Joining Russian Club

- Denmark's Combat Vehicles So Worn-Out They Must Be Driven by Truck

- Ukrainian Forces Continue to Shell Donbass - DPR

- Political Dialogue Between Russia, NATO Impossible in Current Conditions

- Russian Presidential Decree on Ruble Payments for Gas Goes Into Effect on Friday

- 'Nazism is Disease': Texan Came to Donbass to Protect People

- Two Ukrainian Military Helicopters Attacked Oil Depot in Belgorod, RU Gvt says

- Texas Man Arrested After Leaving Son’s Corpse Inside His Kitchen for 4 years

- Moscow Will Not Leave Hostile EU Actions Unanswered

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March 31-APR 1 2022: SIT EC y POL in SPANISH

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REBELION

UKR: Bajo el disfraz de colabor biológica entre Ucrania y US Elson C

Econ: DANZA ACIAGA PARA EL DÓLAR Hedelberto López

Ucrania, BIDEN PIDE MÁS GUERRA Fabrizio Casari

COL-Putumayo: SIGUEN VIGENTES LOS FALSOS POSITIVOS H Duque

ALC: AMNISTÍA, JUSTICIA Y RECONCILIACIÓN Giorgio Trucchi

Video R: Mirada Nativa, la plataforma alternativa de cinema indígena

El Salvad Bukele: negociaciones secretas, asesinatos y estado de sitio V K

ALC: LA VERDAD EN PELIGRO DE EXTINCIÓN Marcel Lhermitte

BOL: Los medios de comunic operan como actores políticos Claudia Espinoza

Armas: «ES UN ESCÁNDALO POLÍTICO Y DEMOCRÁTICO»

Chile: La semana de violencia: urge nuevo paradigma en seguridad Pablo A

Cuba PERFILA ACCIONES EN SU PROGRAMA CONTRA LA DISCRIMINACIÓN

US: Daily Mail y Fox News exhuman los biolabs de Hunter Biden en Ucrania

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

- Austria se opone a la prohibición de las importaciones del gas y petróleo ruso https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/425673-austria-oponerse-prohibicion-gas-petroleo-ruso

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Cómo se efectuarán los pagos en rublos por el gas ruso a partir de este 1 de abril? https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/425677-efectuar-viernes-pagos-rublos-gas-ruso

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Ataque a RU: con helicópteros desde Ukrania: incendian deposito de petróleo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/425701-incendio-deposito-petroleo-rusia-bombardeo-ucraniaun

Este es ataque del US y NATO y la pregunta es como va a responder RU. No puede atacar el US, pero quizá puede bombardear POLAND que es adonde llegan los mercenarios del US

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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/