MAY 31 2021 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
HERE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN THE BIDEN BUDGET
by Tyler Durden
This is the first time the White House has formally shown the net effect of their proposals over the ten-year period Congress will use when it considers them.
As discussed last week his budget proposal to Congress did reveal what Goldman has called the "most important number" in the budget - it calls for an increase in the deficit of $800BN over 10 years (0.3% of GDP over that period) to accommodate his “American Jobs Plan” (AJP) and “American Families Plan”(AFP). While the amount is not surprising, according to Goldman this is the first time the White House has formally shown the net effect of their proposals over the ten-year period Congress will use when it considers them.
Why is this important?
As Goldman explains, this figure will be relevant to the congressional debate, as Democratic leaders will need to choose a dollar figure to include in a forthcoming budget resolution that directs the committees that will craft the fiscal package.
In either case, once the amount is set, the legislation that follows may not increase the deficit by more than directed. While congressional Democrats are free to choose a different amount, the Biden budget is the first formal indication from any of the key decisionmakers regarding how much they propose to increase the deficit to fund their proposals.
Besides the formalized deficit number, most of the details in the budget were already previewed in White House releases over the last several weeks. The White House already announced the two major proposals, the AJP and AFP (American Jobs and Families Plans), several weeks ago, and there were few other policy proposals in the budget outside of those plans. For the most part, the specific figures in the budget match fairly closely with what the White House had already laid out. These plans are summarized in the table below.
See Chart:
Exhibi1: The American Jobs & Families Plans
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AJFP.jpg?itok=ZVuHeuLe
As for the "6 trillion proposal", Goldman expects Congress to scale back the proposal, "with a risk that it is scaled back more than we have been expecting." Goldman's forecast assumes that Congress enacts a package of slightly more than $3 trillion, with tax increases of around half this much. However, for the first time since the start of the pandemic, the risks to Goldman's fiscal assumptions appear skewed to the downside.
Why? Because if congressional leaders adopt the White House position that the total deficit impact of the forthcoming fiscal package should be kept to around $800bn over ten years (i.e., the "most important number"), this would mean that Congress would need to raise taxes much more than expected (which is unlikely as even centrist democrats have balked), or increase spending far less than expected.
And with regard to taxes, Goldman expects less than half of the Biden proposals to become law:
Specifically, we assume Congress will pass a 25% corporate rate, rather than the 28% the White House proposes, and that congress will substantially scale back the corporate tax increases on international income. We expect the top marginal individual rate to increase as proposed, but the capital gains rate is more likely to settle around 28% and that the increase is unlikely to take effect retroactively, as there appears to be tepid support for a capital gains rate increase among some centrist Democrats and making the tax hike retroactive could reduce support further.
Meanwhile, as noted above, the budget highlights the smaller scale of any additional fiscal boost. The budget proposes to increase the deficit by $118bn (0.5% of GDP) in FY2022, and $224bn (0.9%of GDP) in FY2023. Spending would increase by more than this—$265bn (1.1%) and$530bn (2.2%)—but around half of this would be offset with tax increases.
These are big numbers in a normal policy and economic environment, but this amounts to only a fraction, on an annual basis, of the fiscal support Congress has provided over the last year. The chart below shows the Biden Administration’s estimate of the proposals effect on the budget deficit over the next ten years.
See Chart:
Exhibid 2: A net deficit increase of less than 1% of GDP over the next few years
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/deficit%20increase%20gdp.jpg?itok=2as96Qjy
With a nearly $1.5 trillion gap between the White House’s proposal and the Senate Republican offer, and even less overlap in how to finance the new spending, it is hard to see how a bipartisan agreement will come together. Instead, congressional Democrats are likely to move forward with one large reconciliation bill, requiring only 51 votes in the Senate, that encompasses both of President Biden’s major proposals (the AJP and AFP).
Here, Goldman assumes that the House and Senate Budget Committees will begin to move forward with the irrespective budget resolutions by mid-June, which will lay the procedural groundwork for the reconciliation bill and, as described above, set a limit on the deficit impact. It is possible that the House will begin to pass legislation in committee in June, but full House passage of the actual reconciliation bill will likely take until July. The Senate could start on the bill in July, but passage in September or October looks more likely than July at this point.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/here-most-important-number-biden-budget
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ICECAP ASSET MANAGEMENT: THE STORY OF THE YEAR
by Keirh Dicker of IceCap Asset Management
We acknowledge this whole inflation story is a bit unusual for many investors, yet it is absolutely THE story facing markets today [ Nice Chart ]
The Elephant in the Room
Since we now know the extreme monetary policy implemented by the Americans is actually less extreme when compared to the Japanese, the Europeans, the Chinese, the Canadians and others, then there must be something else happening to create all of this (nonsensical) drama about the US Dollar being on the verge of collapsing.
Monetary theorists have always proclaimed that if you produce excessive stimulus via interest rate cuts, balance sheet expansion and especially when combined with excessive stimulus, then inflation is going to storm back with vengeance.
And since it has been over 40 years since inflation was a problem for the developed world, most have become either dismissive about the potential for inflation, or have simply become ignorant towards this monetary demon.
Here is the long-term showing core inflation in the USA.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/US%20LT%20inflation.jpg?itok=kB6wh8-K
A casual view of this US inflation chart clearly shows how from the late 1980s to present day, inflation has never been a challenge. And perhaps more importantly (or embarrassing for the inflation purists), inflation has not once jumped out from around any corner: simply by the explosion of the global economy.
Yes, the great equalizer to any inflation concerns was globalization. The inclusion of increasing more emerging market economies into the manufacturing supply chains of the developed world did wonders for keeping prices lower.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/price%20cahnges%20icecap.jpg?itok=lPPMVBBD
Inflation can be complicated.
The vast majority of people fall asleep at the mere mention of the word.
Put another way – there are two very large and vitally important economic services structured to GENERATE strong inflation. Price increases in these sectors have little to do with low interest rates and quantitative easing. The remaining items in the chart clearly show a lack of inflation over time. While computer costs have mostly remained the same over the years, and this would be thought of as a positive contributor to inflation, the productivity powers within these computers have expanded exponentially. In other words, consumers are absolutely getting more bangs for their bucks
This is also true for many other items within our shopping baskets.
At the same time, we are not oblivious to
the obvious concerns with the exclusion of house prices
from most inflation calculations.
For those who are not aware, the rapidly rising price of homes in your
neighbourhood is excluded from inflation calculations.
Yes, you heard us right.
The other interesting thing about our central bank power brokers, none of them can answer why inflation hasn’t been booming over the last 20 years.
Central banks have failed.
We’ve lived through nearly 15 out of 20 years with interest rates near 0%, while also having central banks implementing quantitative easing.
Yes, during these same 20 years, core inflation has been greater than the magical 2% target rate a grand total of 3 years.
· Alan Greenspan failed.
· Ben Bernanke failed.
· Janet Yellen failed.
· Wim Duisenberg failed.
· Jean-Claude Trichet failed.
· Mario Draghi failed.
· David Dodge failed.
· Mark Carney failed (twice).
· Yasuo Matsushita failed.
· Masaru Hayami failed.
· Toshihiko Fukui failed.
· Masaaki Shirakawa failed.
· Sir Mervyn King failed.
· Mark Carney (again) failed.
Yes, all of these highly respected leaders of the central banks for USA, Japan, Eurozone, Canada, and Britain all failed to produce the 2% target rate of inflation.
CONTINUE READING AT:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/icecap-asset-management-story-year
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
WILL ELIMINATING STANDARD TESTS REALLY REDUCE RACIAL DISPARITIES IN EDUCATION?
Eliminating standardized scores will not erase true racial disparities in our educational system. Indeed, it may only exacerbate them.
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Educ is a system with 4 components: 1-teacher exper, 2-student-family backgr (human capital) , 3-content that has to be learned & 4- the context (setting in which d learning process occur inside School). All of them interplay to produce the output known as TEST & SAT + other academic tests. Racial-disparity is part of the Context-4- IF exist. Context include relat bet studts & bet teacher-stud. The context also include facilities for learn-process: computer+ labs & books, sport field, & lunch-meal facilit. Poverty & color students don’t define ‘racial disparities’ nor aggravated IF exist inside schools. Schools are the place F social integration and National Integration. Nothing to do with ‘racial disparities’.
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MEMORIAL DAY: REMEMBER POLITICAL LIES THAT CAUSED SOLDIERS TO DIE
On Memorial Day, the media do their usual sacralizing of war. Instead, it should be a day for the ritualized scourging of politicians...
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READ the pancart: NO MORE LIES
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MICHAEL FLYNN SAYS MYANMAR-STYLE MILITARY COUP 'SHOULD HAPPEN' IN UNITED STATES
Don't all honest democracies fight election audits?
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
RUSSIA MONITORING BIDEN'S "PERSECUTION" OF CAPITOL HILL RIOTERS & THEIR "OPPOSITION RIGHTS"
by Tyler Durden
Biting & hilariously sarcastic Kremlin statement comes after Biden vowed to confront Putin on egregious human rights abuses when they meet in person...
Both Putin and Biden look ahead to their in-person summit set for June 16 in Geneva. Warning of "uncomfortable" signals to come, the Kremlin indicated that high on the agenda would be a range of human rights and free speech issues in the United States, particularly the "persecution" of those behind the January 6 Capitol riot by the Biden administration.
Read THE ENTIRE article at:
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IRAN WARNS AGAINST "MISCALCULATIONS" AS US MILITARY MONITORS PAIR OF VENEZUELA-BOUND WARSHIPS
US officials believe they are headed for Latin America & earlier warned Maduro not to receive them.
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"On their days off, in front of their families..."
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What is he point of vaccination (don’t prevent CV but kill people) must be main point
JAPAN ASKS OLYMPICS FANS FOR COVID TESTS; NO EATING, DRINKING, CHEERING AT GAMES
"If you can't eat, cheer, or do high-fives, what's the point in paying for a ticket and an expensive test?"
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Ridiculous question
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SPUTNIK : https://sputniknews.com/
- Celebrities, Politicians Flock to Social Media to Honour Memorial Day
- Candles Light Up Streets of Greenwood in Honour of Tulsa Race Massacre Victims
- Xi Jinping: China to Render All Possible Assistance to Syria in Restoring Economy
- Trump Supporters Mark Memorial Day With ‘Boat Parade’ In Florida
- Matt Gaetz Retweets Lee Harvey Oswald Picture on Memorial Day
- Syria's Idlib De-escalation Zone Shelled 46 Times in Past Day
- Michael Flynn Says Myanmar-Like Coup 'Should Happen' in US
- Ted Cruz’ Home 'Bombed by Terrorists' as He Travels Israel
- India Bans Import of 108 Defence Items
- Russian National Ice Hockey Team Secures World Championship Playoffs
- Trump Honours Legacy of US Veterans on Memorial Day
- Is the Critical Race Theory Instigating Racism in America?
- Russian Su-27 Scrambled to Escort US B-52H Bomber Over Baltic Sea
- US 'Imported' Over 1Mln Barrels of Iranian Crude Oil After Ship's Seizure
- IAEA: Iran Exceeded Nuclear Deal Uranium Enrich Limit Stockpile by 16 Times
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MAY 31- 2021 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
US: Seis mil millones de dólares para “recuperar la hegemonía” A A
COL: CON MILITARES Y VIOLENCIA EL GOB BLOQUEA LA NEGOCIACIÓ
PAL: A pesar de sus pérdidas, palestinos alteraron el curso de la histo
COL: EL SALTO DE LAS RATAS Alberto Pinzón
UE: Estrecha salida del laberinto pandémico europeo Sergio Ferrari
CV: LA PANDEMIA Y LA CRISIS DEL SISTEMA Alfredo Apilánez
PAL: El mundo apoya a Palestina https://youtu.be/tFzRpVItZfE
Perú: ¿Cómo van las fuerzas? ¿Quién tiene más poder? C Aguilar
ALC- Salvador Segundo año de Bukele: lo bueno, lo malo y lo feo
ARG: Qué hay detrás de la disputa por el pago de la deuda ARG?
Perú: Sembrar agua con técnicas ancestrales en alturas de Lima
BRA : La avalancha democrática en las calles de Brasil J Miola
Opin: Cuando el feminismo pacifista intentó parar la Guerra Civil
Chile: LA ELOCUENCIA DEL SILENCIO Manuel Acuña
Chile: HACIA DESCOLONIZACIÓN CONSTITUCIONAL? Andrés Kogan
Opin: ¿DE ESAS LLUVIAS ESTOS LODOS? Santiago González
Opin: Medios de comunicación al servicio de Calígula M Suárez
Opin: MOVIMIENTO SOCIALISTA: DESAFÍOS HISTÓRICOS John B
Opin: Diez años del 15M, EBC y el mundo Por-venir Fdo Moreno
Cuba: Manuel Piñeiro Losada: el arte de la conspirac revolucionaria
España: HIMNO, BANDERA Y RETRATO Antonio Rubio
España: LAS DOS ALMAS DEL PSOE Antonio Campuzano
USA: EL ESPEJO DE BALTIMORE Higinio Polo
MX: El saber, el poder y la verdad: cientificismo y extrema derecha
África - Mozambique DOS MESES DE LOS ATAQUES EN PALMA GA
Siria : ELECCIONES BAJO AGRESIÓN Pablo Jofré Leal
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- “All Roads Lead to the Vaccine”: Full Interview with Dr. Peter McCullough
- Comparison of Human Rights Values Between the East and the West By J Cl,
- Germany’s Green Party Is Advocating Arming Ukraine against Russia By GFP
- Why We Must Prevent the U.S. from Launching a Hybrid War Against China
- Nicaragua – A Revolution Worth Defending By Jorge C and S S
- The Horrible History of Big Pharma By Dr. James Angel and Nick Dearden
- Many Ways in Which COVID Vaccines May Harm Your Health By Dr. J M
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
THE INFLATION MINDSET IS HERE (E1704)
Max and Stacy look at the inflation mindset ready, willing and able to take higher prices thus allowing prices to continue rising. In the second half Max continues his conversation with Michael Pento about price signals and capital allocation.
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/525279-inflation-mindset-prices-rising/
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- “Exterminate All the Brutes”: Filmmaker Raoul Peck Explores Colonialism & Origins of White Supremacy
- Richard Wright’s Novel About Racist Police Violence Was Rejected in 1941; It Has Just Been Published
- U.S. Marks 100th Anniversary of Tulsa Race Massacre, When White Mob Destroyed “Black Wall Street”
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