Nueva Democracia: JUN 21 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1

JUN 21 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1

ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

FORGET EVERYTHING YOU KNOW: MORGAN STANLEY REVEALS THE ONLY METRIC THAT DETERMINES WHAT THE MARKET WILL DO NEXT

by Tyler Durden

"The primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth. While this is likely to be a controversial statement, we think it's absolutely the case and financial

Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that "Tapering is Tightening"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.

Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)- writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to "begin" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, "fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year."

Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham, "it's all downhill from here"... and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system "the transition is incomplete."

* * *

Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious: "we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle."

Furthermore, having repeatedly warned that the US is now mid-cycle...

See Chart:

Mid Cycle Shifts

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/mid%20cycle%20shifts_2.jpg?itok=nZb0b7od

... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is "classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening."

While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, "this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer."

See Chart:

We Are past “Peak Fed” for the cycle and the Market know it

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/peak%20fed.jpg?itok=mpeo6FHJ

When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).

And visually:

Riskier Assets are very sensitive to Fed Balance Sheet (M1) growth

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/riskier%20assets.jpg?itok=ubewL48B

Taking Wilson's argument a step further, M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy and markets. On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a more "normal" level of annual growth — i.e., 7-8%

See Chart:

US Money supply growth is slowing

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/M2%20money%20supply%20MS.jpg?itok=KuQBcIkj

More ominously, this also suggests liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.

Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/M2%20Global.jpg?itok=W6LlxzGk

Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's "shock" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.

This to Wilson "looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets" and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).

Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that "tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that the market already knows it. The bad news is that a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's "surprise" announcement this past week. This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks."

Continue reading at:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

THE BIDEN 'NO-GO' ZONES

The DEMOCRATIC PARTY WON THE LONG MARCH THROUGH JOURNALISM, but this Pyrrhic victory has meant the DESTRUCTION OF EVERY PRINCIPLE OF JOURNALISTIC INTEGRITY liberals ever claimed to champion.

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With this view of ‘radical left” even Hitler fits under this umbrella

ALAN DERSHOWITZ: "RADICAL LEFT" CAMPAIGN TO GET JUSTICE BREYER TO RETIRE WILL "BACKFIRE"

Breyer himself in April spoke out about “packing” the court during a speech at Harvard, suggesting that such a measure would backfire and create an impression that the institution is politicized

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Assuming people consent to be watched mean that ‘we’re’ under nazi-fascist regime

THE STATE CONVINCED PEOPLE IT WAS DANGEROUS FOR THEM NOT TO BE WATCHED, NOW MANY BELIEVE SURVEILLANCE TECH IS "FOR OUR OWN GOOD"

Public health is the perfect guise for tyranny... It’s based on fear, and fear is a potent motivator...

….

This stupid distortion means that nazi-fascist regime see citizens as baby dogs

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Vaccine is a profitable business to recreate virus that kill many people. Delta will do it

VACCINES EXHIBIT "REDUCED EFFICACY" AGAINST "DELTA" VARIANT, WHO DOCTOR WARNS

What's more, "there may be a time where we have a constellation of mutations that arise in a variant" that will cause vaccines to lose potency entirely.

….

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

Se desarma el imperio por todos lados: que falta para el derrumbe final?

PAKISTAN PM SLAMS DOOR ON ALLOWING CIA BASES FOR AFGHAN OPERATIONS

As US intelligence scrambles to keep regional presence,

Khan says "ABSOLUTELY NOT"...

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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

-Russia Sends Series of Proposals to US on How to Stabilise Relations, Amb Says

- COVID-19 Live Updates: Delta Variant Now Dominant in Over 300 Areas of England