APR 12- 2021 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
FED'S TAPERING ROADMAP SETS UP A VOLATILE SUMMER
by Tyler Durden
"From a liquidity perspective, the summer could be
a challenging time for markets."
The Fed tipped its hand today, and unveiled its "viral reaction function" revealing the timetable according to which the Fed will start talking about QE tapering.
As discussed previously, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that getting 75% of Americans vaccinated would be a signal that the pandemic was ending, which is a necessary condition for the central bank to consider tapering its bond-buying program. According to our calculations, extrapolating current vaccination rates would mean that - all else equal - we could see the Fed's 75% bogey be hit in just two short months.
See Chart:
Total COVID vaccines administered (% of Pop)
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/vaccination%20tracker_0.jpg?itok=-1h7-Er3
And what's worse, now that the market is aware of the Fed's "viral reaction function", any sharp jump in the vaccination rate will provoke risk off moves as traders start pricing in the inevitable tapering of QE which they now know will be catalyzed by a "normalization" in the pandemic.
Meanwhile, as we also laid out last week in "China Credit Impulse Set To Collapse As Beijing Orders Banks To Curtail Loan Growth For Rest Of 2021", China's stimulus tapering is already under way, with Bloomberg pointing out that "the year-on-year growth of total social financing fell to 12.3% in March, from 13.3% in February and a peak of 13.7% in October. At this rate, the credit impulse, or the change of new credit as a percentage of GDP, could start to shrink by July or August -- just as the Fed may lay the groundwork for its own tapering."
See Chart:
Credit Impulse and Stock Valuation
So, as Bloomberg's Xie concludes, "from a liquidity perspective, the summer could be a challenging time for markets. In the past decade, the slowdown of China’s credit impulse has consistently been accompanied by investors cutting the valuation of the MSCI China Index."
But it's not just Chinese stocks that are subject to the monthly injections and drains of the all-important credit impulse: As a reminder, the credit impulse first reaches assets that are driven primarily by the Chinese economy (Chinese bond yields and industrial metals). Next to be impacted are inflation breakevens and sovereign yields in Western economies. The peak correlation for other growth-sensitive assets such as eurozone banks and AUD/JPY arrives with bigger lag of around 4-5 quarters. This result, while logical, is quite significant, as it gives us a playbook for the ebb and flow in Chinese credit impulse.
SEE MORE CHARTS AT:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-tapering-roadmap-sets-volatile-summer
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WHAT ARE THE NEXT STEPS FOR US FISCAL POLICY: A GOLDMAN Q&A
by Tyler Durden
Here is a handy self-Q&A by Goldman chief political strategist, Alec Phillips, laying out the Next Steps for US Fiscal Policy [ See Chart ]
Two weeks ago, President Biden proposed to spend over $2 trillion over the next decade on an “American Jobs Plan”, a forthcoming “American Families Plan” looks likely to be nearly as large. Goldman expects Congress to pass most of this proposed spending later this year, including nearly all of the “hard infrastructure” spending that President Biden proposes, as well as most of the research, manufacturing, and “green” incentives. It also expects Congress to approve the social benefits the White House proposes but in a scaled-back form. Overall, Goldman's economists expect this would amount to around $3.3 trillion over 10 years (1.1% of GDP on average over that period).
The White House has proposed to offset the cost of most of the “Jobs Plan” with corporate tax increases. Personal tax hikes and capital gains taxes would cover most of the cost of the second package, although in light of the latest woeful budget deficit, where YTD taxes cover only half the government spending, this seems like an overly optimistic assumption.
See Chart:
Cumulative Receipts, Outlays & surplus/Deficit through fiscal year 2021
Receipts by source vs Outlays by Function
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Mmarch%20YTD%202021%20deficit_0.jpg?itok=_Yn2zuZC
In any case, Goldman expects Congress to raise taxes but not as much as Biden proposes: this would include a corporate tax rate in the 25% range and some of the international changes the Treasury proposes. Individual tax rates look likely to rise, but capital gains taxes will stop short of the near-doubling the White House is proposing. Goldman also expects little net increase inindividual taxes, as new revenue is likely to be used for new tax benefits.
Continue reading at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-are-next-steps-us-fiscal-policy-goldman-qa
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JANET YELLEN IS SERIOUS, AND THAT'S REALLY SAD
Yellen believes her boss and his lieutenants in Congress are better at allocating resources than the world’s greatest companies. That’s really sad..
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DAILY BRIEFING: A CHART-FILLED LOOK AT BANKS, INFLATION, AND TREASURY VOLATILITY
Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley prepare viewers for a huge week in markets, giving insight on the series of major investment banks set to…
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
FROM AMERICAN DREAM TO AMERICAN NIGHTMARE
"It's called the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it"
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BIDEN CALLS FOR 'PEACEFUL PROTEST' FOLLOWING POLICE SHOOTING OF BLACK MAN IN MINNEAPOLIS SUBURB
"There is absolutely no justification for looting. No justification for violence"
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Then Biden has to make a DEAL with organizer of PEACEFUL demonstration to ‘avoid looting’ -that usually follow the illegal repression from the Police- and DISARM the police -they by ‘fear’ & psychological bias- will be tempted to use their guns. Instead, we need to convert the Police into ‘friends’ o peaceful demonstration.
HOW TO? No armed police in uniform & will their uniform & without using guns will be in charge of separating ‘armed’ protesters with molotovs, rocks, gasoline-bottles & even revolvers, with the consent of meeting’ organizers.
The police in Uniform will protect a peaceful Street meetings with teaser guns & lachrymogenous-bombs to dissolve anti-protesters from rightist parties. They must go at front & behind the protesters + the flanks, to avoid they will be attacked from rival parties.
IT happen in Chile when Allende win elections & fascist parties tried to dissolve the pro-Allende meeting. The police also defend anti-Allende meeting from the leftist.
This NEUTRAL police position also happens in Peru & VEN. NO need to use real gun-weapons to favor PEACE. The POLICE in Chile won the NATION support that finished when US-PLAN CONDOR implemented terrorism to support their anti-democratic plan.
In ARG the plan CONDOR win support from the current Pope. In other countries the Christian left was against Plan CONDO. Obeispo Romero in El Salvador was one of them but he was assassinated. In Peru the Plan Condor failed: they try to intimidate the ‘quechua rebels’ by bombing Ayacucho with NAPALN. The TIT for TAT from the left was very violent: They Bombed the US Embassy & the Hotel TARATA where 22 top military from PLAN CONDOR were incinerated with ‘morteros’.
The PLAN CONDOR quit from Peru, and from the rest of countries invaded. They concentrated in CHILE and nazi-fscism win there. The lesson was clear: IF FASCISTS use terrorism, they have to be responded with terrorism too. Both SunTzu & Von Clausewitz -key writers on WAR- coincided in that Tactic.
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THEY'LL "GET WHAT THEY DESERVE" - TRUMP BLASTS "PATHETIC" SUPREMES AS BIDEN COURT-PACKING LOOMS
In what is likely to go down as one of his greatest rants yet (and longest run-on sentences), former President Trump weighed in tonight on President Biden's court-packing commission - and in the process took a jab at the
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BIG GOVERNMENT RIDES TO THE RESCUE OF LABOR UNIONS
The US House of Representatives has passed a bill called the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act. If the Senate passes the bill and the President signs it, this would usher in a union labor coup.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
CHINA'S HUAWEI BLAMES US FOR GLOBAL CHIP SHORTAGE
"Because of the U.S. sanctions against Huawei, we have seen panic stockpiling among global companies, especially the Chinese ones."
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USA created this problem & JAPAN should up send there.
Scientists once again prove that they have far fewer redeeming qualities than common whores.
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Infesting the PACIFIC Ocean is a crime against Humanity: we eat fish from there. And trying to create WW3 is even worse: it is a war crime
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CHINA'S CREDIT GROWTH MODERATES IN APRIL, PUTTING CREDIT IMPULSE IN JEOPARDY
If the world is hit by the double whammy of continued deleveraging in China which pushes the credit impulse into contraction, coupled with Fed "thinking about thinking about tapering" sometime in late 2021, then all bets are off.
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SPUTNIK: https://sputniknews.com/
- New Centrifuges 'With More Capacity' Already Replacing Damaged Ones at Iran's Natanz, Diplomat Says
- Brooklyn Center Mayor Fires City Manager After Fatal Shooting of Daunte Wright
- S Korea Says Japan's Decision to Release Fukushima NPP Water Into Sea Unacceptable
- Domino's Pizza Testing Driverless Autonomous Car for Deliveries in Houston
- Medical Experts Confirm Daunte Wright Died of Gunshot Wound During Police Incid
- Tennessee High School Shooting: What Is Known So Far
- Ex-Police Chief Sentenced After Rigging Police Exam, Lying to US Auth
- Yogurt Molecules ‘Cure’ Mice of Inflammation Linked to COVID-19
- 'Is He Really in Charge?': GOP Sen Cornyn Criticizes Biden's Lack of Media Presence
- Biden Plans to Keep Trump's Ambassador to Russia Pick,
- One Dead, Man Detained After Officer-Involv Shooting at Knoxville High School
- Petition to Stop Japan From Dumping Contaminated Fukushima Water Into Ocean Gains Massive Support
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APR 12 2021 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
Ecuad: R Correa a Guillermo Lasso vía Lenín Moreno Eric Toussaint
CV: Pandemia, espejo de crisis profunda del sistema Sergio Ferrari
Biden acaba con anarcoliberalismo y tiene buena razón para hacerlo
Ecuad: GANA LASSO EL BALOTAJE EN ECUADOR Silvia Arana
Sahára Occ Ofensiva diplomática marroquí contra Alemania KM-FA
Perú INDEPENDENCIA Y SOBERANÍA Gustavo Espinoza
Libro «CUBA, VERDADES Y MENTIRAS» (Bizkaia)
Costa Rica: Mueren 250 mil abejas al día por intoxic con agrotóxicos
Vacunac e inmunizac NADIE SE SALVA SOLO Federico Kukso
CV “Las escuelas no peben convertirse en casa velatoria” Mario H
ECOL-S: PUEBLOS INDÍGENAS, «GUARDIANES DE LOS BOSQUES»
BOL: Opciones políticas de los obispos de la Iglesia católica E P R
US: PLAN DE RESCATE US COMO TEORÍA ECONÓMICA J. W. Mason
BRA: BOLSONARO, UN NEONAZI EN CRISIS TERMINAL Sergio Ortiz
Chile: “un país abusivo que no le da garantías a los individ” I P V
Capital extranj y agotam relativo del capital neoliberal Orl Caputo
Opin: LOS HIJOS DE LA GUERRA Carolina Vásquez
COL: MÁS DE TRES DÉCADAS DE VIOLENCIA ANTISINDICAL
COL: ¿Y SI FRECHETTE TIENE LA RAZÓN? Alberto Pinzón
US-CUBA: Sin presión internac US no modific su polít contra Cuba
-Se crea en Moscú la Fundación de Relac Ruso-Cubanas Fidel Castro
- El banquero Guillermo Lasso gobernará Ecuador hasta 2025 E O P
- LA REPÚBLICA, NOVENTA AÑOS DESPUÉS Víctor Arrogante
US: TIERRA DE LA LIBERTAD… Y DE LOS BALAZOS Marcelo Colussi
MX: Cómo lavan dinero las cuatro grandes organizaciones del narco
Zambia LA PUNTA DE LA COLA DEL PERRO GLOBAL Vijay Prashad
ISR: En Israel el sionismo impide la solidaridad de clase SA y DT
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
US anuncia acuerd con México, Honduras y Guatemala para aumentar tropas en front https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/389198-eeuu-acuerdo-mexico-guatemala-honduras-migracion
Si hay WW3 el US tendrá soldados baratos
G Lasso, el banquero que llega a la Presid después de dos intentos fallidos https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/389161-ecuador-guillermo-lasso-banquero-nuevo-presidente
Los ricos del país tendrán Presid para ellos
Pedro Castillo, el docente que sorprendió en las presid de Perú con voto de regiones https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/389114-pedro-castillo-docente-sorprender-presidenciales-peru
Que quieren las regiones además de autonomía, nadie lo sabe aun.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Why NATO Destroyed Libya Ten Years Ago By Manlio Dinucci,
- Cuba-Ven Authorities Mourn Ramsey Clark’s Death By Telesur
- China Blasts US Military Intervents in Human Rights Report By DdC
- U.S. Warships Enter Black Sea in “Signif Signal” to RU Over Ukraine By R R,
- Assange’s Arres: Biden Can End Trump’s Assault on Press Freed By K G
- Getting the “Vaccine” After Having Had the Infection
- Meet the 40 New Billionaires Who Got Rich Fighting CV-19 By G T
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Max and Stacy look at the warning from Egon von Greyerz that “disorder will come.” But is his forecast of hyperinflation accurate? Or will deflation overwhelm the money printing? That question is addressed in the second half of the program when Max interviews Rick Ackerman, a market analyst and former market maker, who argues that the quadrillions in credit derivatives collapsing will outpace any amount of money printing.
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/520791-hyperinflation-forecast-lockdown-consequences/
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- Amazon “Broke the Law”: Union Seeks New Election After Alabama Warehouse Organizing Drive Fails
- “We Need to Give the Workers a Fair Shot”: Jane McAlevey on What Went Wrong in Amazon Union Vote
- Ramsey Clark, Former U.S. Attorney General Turned Fierce Critic of U.S. Militarism, Dies at Age 93
-Standing Rock Elder Helped Lead 2016 Anti-DAPL Uprising
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