Nueva Democracia: JAN 17 21 ND SIT EC y POL

JAN 17 21 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

EVERYONE IS IN THE POOL. MORE BUYERS NEEDED

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“Who is left to buy?”

At the halfway point of January, the market has struggled to hold onto its gains. Such is surprising given the recent passage of a $900 billion stimulus bill and Biden’s proposal for another $1.9 trillion on Thursday. With another $2.8 trillion in stimulus hitting the economy, inducing the Fed to do more QE, markets were seemingly unimpressed.

For the first two weeks of January, the market is up by 0.32% YTD.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/YTD-Performance.png?itok=YwIKInrf

As we discussed recently in “There Is No Cash On The Sidelines,” the markets are driven by buyers’ and sellers’ supply and demand.

As long as this remains the case, and exuberance exceeds logic, buyers will continue to pay higher prices to get into the positions they want to own.”

Such is also the definition of the “Greater Fool Theory:”

“The greater fool theory states that it is possible to make money by buying securities, whether or not they are overvalued, by selling them for a profit at a later date. This is because there will always be someone (i.e. a bigger or greater fool) who is willing to pay a higher price.”

The problem comes when buyers are no longer willing to pay a higher price. When sellers realize the change, there will be a rush to sell to a diminishing pool of buyers. Eventually, sellers begin to “panic sell” as buyers evaporate and prices plunge.

Despite the best of intentions, Central Bank interventions, while boosting asset prices may seem like a good idea in the short-term, in the long-term has harmed economic growth. As such, it leads to the repetitive cycle of monetary policy.

Using monetary policy to drag forward future consumption leaves an enormous void that must get continually refilled in the future.
Monetary policy does not create self-sustaining economic growth and therefore requires ever-larger amounts of monetary policy to maintain the same activity level.
The filling of the “gap” between fundamentals and reality leads to consumer contraction and, ultimately, a recession as economic activity recedes.
Job losses rise, the wealth effect diminishes, and real wealth gets destroyed.
The middle class shrinks further.
Central banks act to provide more liquidity to offset recessionary drag and restart economic growth by dragging forward future consumption.
Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

If you don’t believe me, here is the evidence.

See Chart:

Markets Disconnected from Economy

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Borrowing-From-The-Future-011521.png?itok=BUiH90ip

The stock market has returned more than 164% since the 2007 peak, which is more than 3.8x the growth in corporate sales, and 7.5x more than GDP.

But, for the 10% of the population that owns 90% of the stock market, the sentiment is now getting extreme.

Sentiment Is Getting A Bit Extreme

As shown below, we are at levels that have historically had poor outcomes.

See Chart:

Marked GREED/FEAR Index

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image_2021-01-16_081435.png?itok=kAmxX2qw

Of course, seeing that, you shouldn’t be surprised to see that retail investor confidence (dumb money) is near its highest levels on record.

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Smart-Dumb-Money-Confidence_0.png?itok=gWNyCMCm

The interesting thing about the market is that investors are rushing into equities in anticipation of an economic recovery. However, while there will indeed be a recovery, it is likely to fall far short of investor expectations. Such is generally the case. However, with “euphoria” now at mania levels, the only question is just how disappointed they will be?

See Chart:

Euphoria vs Panic

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Euphoria.png?itok=Qs526kPM

CONTINUE READING AT:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyone-pool-more-buyers-needed

----

IS it insane to attack TAX EVADERS? Was FDR insane when create TOP US develmt

"SIMPLY INSANE" CENTRAL BANKS ATTACK CRYPTOCURRENCIES

...cryptocurrencies are an urgent and necessary alternative to the lack of control of the so-called Keynesian monetary policies, because they are simply insane...

====

ETFS AND PASSIVE INVESTING HAVE WILDLY DISTORTED S&P 500 VALUATIONS, STUDY FINDS

by Tyler Durden

“When prices are distorted, weights of value-weighted indices are biased, and flows into index funds exacerbate the distortions.”

Academics are starting to arrive at a conclusion we have been talking about for years: the influx of ETFs and passive investing in today's market could be more trouble than its worth.

Many people currently believe that larger companies are in a bubble - and that small caps are the place to look in 2021. A new study supports this assertion. In fact, passive flows into the S&P 500 have "disproportionately pumped up prices of its largest members -- paving the way for small companies in the benchmark to eventually outperform," according to a new report from BNN.

The report, which cites a team from Michigan State University, the London School of Economics and University of California Irvine, analyzed data from 2000 to 2019. It was authored by Hao Jiang, Dimitri Vayanos and Lu Zheng.

The conclusion was that smaller members of the S&P 500 wind up becoming too cheap relative to the larger names. “Flows into funds tracking the S&P 500 index raise disproportionately the prices of large-capitalization stocks in the index relative to the prices of the index’s small stocks. The flows predict a high future return of the small-minus-large index portfolio,” the paper says.

See Chart

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ETFs.jpg?itok=_QzH-BtH

The study found that "noise traders" (passive investors) "tend to push up the price of fashionably big companies as they enter the S&P 500". This causes those companies to have higher weightings, which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy when new passive traders enter the market.

The paper notes: “When prices are distorted, weights of value-weighted indices are biased, and flows into index funds exacerbate the distortions.”

“If index-related price distortions become more significant over time, they may boost the profitability of active investing strategies that exploit these distortions and ultimately slow the shift to passive investing,” the paper concludes.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/etfs-and-passive-investing-have-wildly-distorted-sp-500-valuations-study-finds

----

LUKE GROMEN: THE FED HAS NO GOOD OPTIONS RIGHT NOW AS YIELDS RISE AND DEFICITS EXPLODE

And I think Louis Gave said it best a couple of weeks ago in an interview, he said when I see a nation who has rising yields and a falling currency, alarm bells go off. That’s a symptom of a balance of payments problem."

====

FRUITS OF INFLATION ARE BLOSSOMING

...we suspect MMT is bound by natural limits. And in 2021, under the progressive guidance of Congress, we will likely start bumping up against these natural limits. In fact, we already are...

====

HEDGE FUND CIO: "THE TRUTH IS THAT AMERICA’S SELF-DESTRUCTIVE ODYSSEY HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN"

And like all our great nation’s harrowing wanders through the wilderness, the reward will be renewal - but not for a decade.

====

TAPER TANTRUMS IN A TIME OF IMPLICIT YIELD CURVE CONTROL

By Guneet Dhingra, rate strategist at Morgan Stanley

Can the Fed succeed in completely taking over the bond market?

As yields approached 1.15% after the blue sweep, Fed Vice Chair Clarida said that he was not "concerned by yields a touch above 1%". This aligns with our understanding of the Fed’s implicit yield curve control.

From here on, real yields will contribute more to a rise in nominal yields. We capture the degree of yield curve control via our Morgan Stanley Yield Curve Control index, which tracks the contribution of real yields to nominal yields.

See Chart:

Morgan Stanley Yield curve control index over the last 15 years

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/YCC%20MS.jpg?itok=r6Ht3yvJ

The recent decline in the index is an important signal for what lies ahead. We can decompose that 60bp rise in yields into 55bp breakevens and 5bp real yields – a mix we think is unsustainable, given the V-shaped recovery and the upcoming fiscal stimulus. We therefore expect real yields to inflect from these all-time lows and play a larger role in the rise in Treasury yields.

A gradual rise, particularly in real yields, may mitigate the risk of another taper tantrum in 2021. One reason why yields rose sharply in the so-called taper tantrum of 2013 was that they were too low relative to improving economic fundamentals.

CONTINUE READING AT:

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/taper-tantrums-time-implicit-yield-curve-control

----

US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

TRUMP RETAINS OVERWHELMING SUPPORT AMONG REPUBLICANS AFTER LAST WEEK'S CHAOS

66% of Republicans (42% strongly agreeing) that the party is better with Donald Trump in it (and 57% believe he should be the candidate in 2024)...

====

FALSE FLAG to legitimize genocide from the 20 Th soldiers sent to custody order?

ARMED PROTESTERS BEGIN TO ARRIVE AT STATE CAPITOLS AROUND THE NATION

"This is very worrying..."

….

Of course it is.. IF it is true that common people is armed in streets. IF so, we have set a team that mix top religious authorities with city authorities to negociate a PEACE DEAL with both parts (the people armed & the military) to avoid the uses of loaded WEAPONS during pacific demonstrations in streets.

IF the TOP army accept it (they were the first actor that threat to custody order with weapons) it will be easy to convince armed people to disarm themselves. Then the PEACE DEAL WILL SUCCEED.

IF the army don’t accept it, then there will be deaths in both sides. In this case the armed people will create small brigades (9 persons loaded with mortar) to hit places where the military comes from, as Black Panthers did before.

This will force either a PEACE DEAL, or the army genocide will create a SOCIAL REBELLION with un-predictable effects.

At the end, the army will be divided between those supporting big Corp who profit form current oligarchical system o power and those military who don’t want to continue kill americans from poor and middle classes plus industrial entrepreneurial investors who never got the QEs & Bailouts.

This sector of the military could advance to create a Coup d etat or REV from ABOVE described by the American Professor Theda Skocpol and seen in many countries of the world.

====

BIDEN TO 'IMMEDIATELY' SEND CONGRESS BILL THAT WOULD OFFER CITIZENSHIP TO 11 MILLION ILLEGALS

Biden plan would contain no provisions for stepped-up immigration enforcement and security measures...

====

THE ILLUSION OF FREEDOM

“The choice for mankind lies between freedom and happiness and for the great bulk of mankind, happiness is better.”

====

COME ON.. HE WAS JOCKING. Es cierto, la fe mueve montañas y también cava nichos

LARGE MIGRANT CARAVAN HEADING TO US, URGES BIDEN ADMIN TO "HONOR ITS COMMITMENTS"

"We will advocate that the Biden government honors its commitments..."

====

US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

10,000 PROTESTERS IN VIENNA MARCH AGAINST CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS

"Massive protest in Vienna now. No one wearing a mask!"

Lockdowns and restrictions across the euro-area economy due to the resurgent pandemic could produce a double-dip recession.

Bloomberg noted that research desks at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS Group AG downgraded their euro-area economic forecast because of the lockdowns.

High-frequency indicators in the euro-area economy have been stumbling since late summer.

See Chart:

Jan Blues: the post-holiday bounce in EU area was small & is not expected t last long

See Chart:

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2021-01-17_09-20-26.png?itok=Go09zIrK

….

This pandemia is fake, this is a mere influenza or flu. It is a huge business for big billonares who don’t care for health but for their own business. Their vaccines kill people by destroying the immune system of sane people. These big Corp are paying Goverment officials and international Press’ mercenaries

====

SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS

GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

Toward new stage of fascism in US:

-Dem Congressman Schiff Recommends That Biden End Trump's Daily Intelligence Briefings

- Any Military Presence at Inauguration is Trump 'Response' to 'Election Fraud'

- Zarif Warns Trump That Tehran Won't 'Shy From Crushing Agressors' After B-52 Patrol in Middle East

- FBI Arrest 'Hardcore Leftist' Who Planned Armed Attack on Pro-Trump Protesters at Florida Capitol

- 'Just Ask Your BFFs': Zarif Warns Trump That Tehran Won't 'Shy From Crushing Agressors' After B-52 Patrol in Middle East

- 'Market for Pardons': Trump Allies Reportedly Collecting Fees for Possible Presidential Clemency

- South Carolina Senator Warns Against Using Impeachment Power to ‘Vindicate Political Grievances’

- Trump's Habit of Destroying White House Docs to Leave a 'Hole' In Historical Record, Scientists Fear