GLOBAL
WARMING: TEN FACTS AND TEN MYTHS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
By Prof. Robert
M. Carter Global Research,
November 12, 2013. Research 9 December
2009. Originally
published by GR in 2009 In-depth Report: Climate Change : http://www.globalresearch.ca/indepthreport/climate-change
Here the most
complete bibliography.
Introduction: by Hugo Adan
I wonder how Robert Merlin
"Bob" Carter a
palaeontologist, stratigrapher and marine geologist who became famous with his Ten Facts and Myths explain the current
Typhoon . In his Myth 10 he said that “Myth 10 The late 20th Century increase in AGT caused
an increase in the number of severe storms (cyclones), or in storm
intensity. Facts 10 Meteorological experts are agreed
that no increase in storms has occurred beyond that associated with natural
variation of the climate system”.
This statement is very controversial and other scientists mentioned by Wikipedia [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_M._Carter]
such as David Karoly,[17]James
Renwick[18] and Ove Hoegh-Guldberg[19], have criticize Carter’s assumption. I
will search how this issue (the typhoon that hit Philippines and other
countries) is been addressed in The Conversation, the website with
these concerns http://www.theconversation.com/uk
The other issue is what
on this tragic event belongs to Humans and what to Nature? This is an ethical problem that will be behind any policy proposal
during the coming Summit in Poland. Finally,
we have a pending issue from previous environmental summits, the issue MANIPULATION OF CLIMATE FOR MILITARY USE now
addressed by Prof Michel Chossudovsky. A
resolution was drafted and is still not implemented since 1977, see: http://www.globalresearch.ca/environmental-modification-techniques-enmod-and-climate-change/16413
Nueva Democracia http://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/ will focus on these issues. Here an introduction to these debates.
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TEN
FACTS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
1. Climate
has always changed, and it always will. The assumption
that prior to the industrial revolution the Earth had a “stable” climate is
simply wrong. The only sensible thing to do about climate change is to prepare
for it.
2.
Accurate temperature measurements made from weather balloons and satellites
since the late 1950s show no
atmospheric warming since
1958. In contrast, averaged ground-based thermometers record a warming of
about 0.40 C over the same time period. Many scientists believe that the
thermometer record is biased by the Urban Heat Island effect and other
artefacts.
3.
Despite the expenditure of more than US$50 billion dollars looking for it since
1990, no unambiguous anthropogenic (human) signal has
been identified in
the global temperature pattern.
4.
Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature on Earth would
be -180 C rather than the equable +150 C that has nurtured the development of
life.
Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas, responsible for
~26% (80 C) of the total greenhouse effect (330C), of which in turn at most 25%
(~20C) can be attributed to carbon dioxide contributed by human activity. Water
vapour, contributing at least 70% of the effect, is by far the most important
atmospheric greenhouse gas.
5. On
both annual (1 year) and geological (up to 100,000 year) time scales, changes
in atmospheric temperature PRECEDE changes in CO2. Carbon
dioxide therefore cannot be the primary forcing agent for temperature increase (though
increasing CO2 does cause a diminishingly mild positive temperature feedback).
6. The UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has acted as the
main scaremonger for
the global warming lobby that led to the Kyoto Protocol. Fatally, the IPCC is a
political, not scientific, body.
Hendrik Tennekes, a retired
Director of Research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, says
that “the IPCC review process is
fatally flawed” and that “the IPCC wilfully ignores the
paradigm shift created by the foremost meteorologist of the twentieth century,
Edward Lorenz“.
7. The
Kyoto Protocol will cost many trillions of dollars and exercises a significant
impost those countries that signed it, but will deliver no significant cooling
(less than .020 C by 2050, assuming that all commitments are met).
The Russian Academy of
Sciences says that Kyoto has no scientific basis; Andre Illarianov, senior
advisor to Russian president Putin, calls Kyoto-ism “one of the most agressive, intrusive, destructive ideologies since
the collapse of communism and fascism“. If
Kyoto was a “first step” then it was in the same wrong direction as the later
“Bali roadmap”.
8. Climate
change is
a non-linear (chaotic) process, some parts of which are only
dimly or not at all understood. No deterministic computer model will
ever be able to make an accurate prediction of climate 100 years into the
future.
9. Not
surprisingly, therefore, experts in computer modelling agree also that no
current (or likely near-future) climate model is able to make accurate
predictions of regional climate change.
10. The biggest
untruth about human global warming is the assertion that nearly all scientists
agree that it is occurring, and at a dangerous rate.
The reality is that almost every
aspect of climate science is the subject of vigorous debate.
Further, thousands of qualified scientists worldwide have signed declarations
which (i) query the evidence for hypothetical human-caused warming and (ii)
support a rational scientific (not emotional) approach to its study within the
context of known natural climate change.
LAYING
TEN GLOBAL WARMING MYTHS
Myth
1 Average global temperature (AGT) has
increased over the last few years.
Fact 1
Within error bounds, AGT has not increased since 1995 and has declined since
2002, despite an increase in atmospheric CO2 of 8% since 1995.
Myth
2 During the late 20th Century, AGT
increased at a dangerously fast rate and reached an unprecedented magnitude.
Facts 2
The late 20th Century AGT rise was at a rate of 1-20 C/century, which lies well
within natural rates of climate change for the last 10,000 yr. AGT has been
several degrees warmer than today many times in the recent geological
past.
Myth
3 AGT was relatively unchanging in
pre-industrial times, has sky-rocketed since 1900, and will increase by several
degrees more over the next 100 years (the Mann, Bradley & Hughes “hockey
stick” curve and its computer extrapolation).
Facts 3
The Mann et al. curve has been exposed as a statistical contrivance. There is
no convincing evidence that past climate was unchanging, nor that 20th century
changes in AGT were unusual, nor that dangerous human warming is underway.
Myth
4 Computer models predict that AGT will
increase by up to 60 C over the next 100 years.
Facts 4
Deterministic computer models do. Other equally valid (empirical) computer
models predict cooling.
Myth
5 Warming of more than 20 C will have
catastrophic effects on ecosystems and mankind alike.
Facts 5
A 20
C change would be well within previous natural bounds. Ecosystems
have been adapting to such changes since time immemorial. The result is the
process that we call evolution. Mankind can and does adapt to all climate
extremes.
Myth
6 Further human addition of CO2 to the atmosphere will cause dangerous
warming, and is generally harmful.
Facts 6
No human-caused warming can yet be detected that is distinct from natural
system variation and noise. Any additional human-caused warming which occurs
will probably amount to less than 10 C. Atmospheric CO2 is a beneficial
fertilizer for plants, including especially cereal crops, and also aids
efficient evapo-transpiration.
Myth
7 Changes in solar activity cannot
explain recent changes in AGT.
Facts 7
The sun’s output varies in several ways on many time scales (including the 11-,
22 and 80-year solar cycles), with concomitant effects on Earth’s climate.
While changes in visible radiation are small, changes in particle flux and
magnetic field are known to exercise a strong climatic effect. More than 50% of
the 0.80 C rise in AGT observed during the 20th century can be attributed to
solar change.
Myth
8 Unprecedented melting of ice is taking
place in both the north and south polar regions.
Facts 8
Both the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets are growing in thickness and cooling at their summit. Sea
ice around Antarctica attained a record area in 2007. Temperatures in the
Arctic region are just now achieving the levels of natural warmth experienced
during the early 1940s, and the region was warmer still (sea-ice free) during
earlier times.
Myth
9 Human-caused global warming is causing
dangerous global sea-level (SL) rise.
Facts 9
SL change differs from time to time and place to place; between 1955 and 1996,
for example, SL at Tuvalu fell by 105 mm (2.5 mm/yr). Global average SL is a
statistical measure of no value for environmental planning purposes. A global
average SL rise of 1-2 mm/yr occurred naturally over the last 150 years, and
shows no sign of human-influenced increase.
Myth
10 The late 20th Century increase in AGT
caused an increase in the number of severe storms (cyclones), or in storm
intensity.
Facts 10
Meteorological experts are agreed that no increase in storms has occurred
beyond that associated with natural variation of the climate system.
------------------
Author:
Robert
M. Carter is
a Research Professor at James Cook University (Queensland) and the University
of Adelaide (South Australia). He is a palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine
geologist and environmental scientist with more than thirty years professional
experience.
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