HOW SANDY STORM COULD AFFECT THE ELECTION TRAIL?
[NOTE FROM Hugo Adan (October 31).
To me: if one person one vote is the essence of
democratic elections, then considering that many people won’t be able to vote in
affected areas of the storm Sandy (they face the dilemma: where to vote for one
of the super-pack financed candidates running in this election vs. where to get money to repair
the house damaged by the storm knowing that most home insurances do not cover
natural disasters) the CONCLUSION is that NATIONAL ELECTION SHOULD BE
POSTPONED.
It is clear that postponing elections only in the
affected areas will create political problems of unpredicted magnitude. The
effects of the Sandy storm are many and difficult to predict; in any case, it
will affect mainly to the incumbent president. Postponed for one month (at
least) will also favor the candidate Romney who now needs more time to overcome
the lagging behind of the GOP at national level. Meanwhile, Obama is visiting
the devastating areas as part of his campaign while Romney is visiting key swing
States in his campaign strategy. Meaning: they do not really care for the
victims of the storm and the victims will became anti-Obama, his bla-bla won’t
contain their frustration]
--------------------
T-MINUS 363 DAYS TO ELECTION 2012: WELCOME TO THE
SIGNAL [PREDICTOR]
HERE SOME EXTRACTS
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/t-minus-363-days-election-2012-welcome-signal-000451089.html
By David
Rothschild, Yahoo! News | The
Signal – Mon, Nov 7, 2011 Email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com
Read David Pennock companion art A Signal mission: Putting a number on
uncertainty. By David Pennock | The Signal – Mon, Nov 7, 2011. IN: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/signal-mission-putting-number-uncertainty-235526823.html
Check also: http://news.yahoo.com/elections/
----------------
As voters head to the polls today for the 2011 elections, we are a little
less than a year away from selecting the next President of the United States.
As of this morning, there's a 67.3 percent chance that Republican Mitt Romney
will challenge Democratic incumbent Barack Obama in the 2012 general election.
Rick Perry, at 10.4 percent, is the second likeliest Republican nominee for
President, with Newt Gingrich (8.3 percent) following closely behind. Barack
Obama's likelihood of prevailing and winning reelection for a second term is
slightly better than a coin flip; Obama has a 50.5 percent likelihood of
victory.These predictions, of course, are based on the best estimate of the dynamics in the presidential race between now and November 2012--which are certain to change in the 12 months ahead. During that time, countless factors could affect the prospects for Obama's reelection. The economy could recover or get worse, some hot-button social issues could come to the fore in the race, and others may recede. More conflicts may arise overseas--while present ones could work themselves out. And there is of course the ever-present chance that scandals--some big, some small, some real, and some contrived--will erupt.
So what does this 50.5 percent likelihood really mean, then? Imagine if the world were to accommodate one thousand scenarios--each equally likely to happen; imagine further, that among those, one such scenario were randomly selected to represent how things play out on Election Day. And in this randomized array of likely presidential-election outcomes, our modeling suggests that Obama wins re-election 505 out of 1,000 occurrences, while losing in 495. 12 months from Election Day, the outcome of the presidential contest is just about as undecided as any future event can be.
As of now, we compute these estimates by
taking an average of the prices listed on prediction markets Betfair and
Intrade. A prediction market is a place where political handicappers back up
their convictions with real money. The price is determined by how much money
users are willing to invest up front in order to win back one dollar if they are
right. If a 90-cent investment is required to win one dollar, users think the
candidate is likely to win. If, on the other hand, only a few pennies
investment is required to win one dollar, users are saying the candidate is a
longshot. Users from around the world act based on any information they have,
including well-known central signals of upcoming events like polls and past
results, as well as less obvious, more disaggregated indicators. Many academic
papers have confirmed the value of prediction markets in forecasting upcoming
events; for politics elections, prediction markets have proved been meaningful
from late
19th and early 20th century elections through the 2008
election.
Obama's likelihood of being reelected
President has hovered around 50 percent since Labor Day, declining slightly
throughout September before rebounding in October.
=============
A SIGNAL MISSION: PUTTING A NUMBER ON UNCERTAINTY
[A COMPANION TO THE PREVIOUS ART]
HERE SOME EXTRACTS
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/signal-mission-putting-number-uncertainty-235526823.html
By David Pennock | The Signal – Mon, Nov
7, 2011
Uncertainty means being unsure, at least a little, about the
outcome of some event in the future. Who will win the Super Bowl in 2012? Who
will be our President in 2013? I don't know. No one knows. Anyone who says they
know with conviction is either lying, delusional, or has inside knowledge that
I believe — well, with 99.9% surety — that no one in the world has.
Most people are happy to acknowledge
that uncertainty exists: it's a part of life. We buy insurance precisely
because we realize that the unexpected can happen. Many things are
unpredictable, from Arab uprisings to Apple stock. But few go beyond admitting
they are unsure to say exactly how uncertain they are, quantifying
their doubt with a number, say 50.5% sure that Obama will prevail.
What does it means to be "50.5% sure" of something? Part of our
mission at The Signal is to report on predictions like this from all around the
web, explain what they mean in straightforward terms, and encourage our
readers, and leaders, to think more, and more clearly, about uncertainty.
===========
INTERESTING
COMMENT BY MAGGIE THE GEEK
In the past few months the political
ads from both the Democrats and the Republicans have promoted that every vote
counts and we all need to get out and vote. Well, here’s the chance for the
Democrats and the Republicans to prove to us that every vote really does count;
in light of the devastating destruction throughout our country, throughout Democratic
and Republican and “undecided” states, millions and millions of potential
voters have not only had inconvenient set-backs but devastating and forever life
changing events and will not be in position by November 6th to make that vote
that counts! In lieu of the devastation, politics seem petty and even the two
men running for President obviously know that but neither are in the position
to suggest that we postpone the scheduled November 6th vote. Most in office politicians
probably don’t want the fall out and/or blame of suggesting America put
politics and votes on hold. Certainly, the Republican and Democratic
headquarters are trying to decide whether postponing the vote is in their best
interest or not; however, it is no one’s best interest to pretend this devastating
aftermath won’t have a bearing on a November 6th election. Hurricane Sandy has
been an equal opportunity offender; her damage has not discriminated against
any political party nor can any political party really benefit from this
storm’s devastation. If elections are held on Tuesday, November 6th, no matter
which parties’ candidates win or lose, their wins and losses will either be
credited or blamed upon the storm and never be considered a valid vote. We’ve
already had one presidential election that had to be decided by the courts,
let’s learn from our own history and not go through that, again! Over the limit
- read more at
===========
ONE MORE NOTE TO READ for Wednesday, October 31, 2012
www.abcnews.com
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/the-notes-must-reads-for-wednesday-october-31-2012/
ABC News’ Ariane Devogue and Lauren Pearle: “Could Election Day Be Postponed?” Superstorm Sandy has given rise to suspensions in campaigning by both President Obama and GOP contender Mitt Romney, but could it actually delay Election Day? In theory, yes, but in all likelihood, no. LINK The Constitution leaves the "times, places and manner" of holding a federal election up to each state, but says that Congress may at any time make or alter such regulations. Election Day, which is set by Congress, for all federal offices is the Tuesday following the first Monday in November.
The
New York Daily News’ Jonathan Lemire: “Hurricane Sandy plunges presidential
race into uncertainty” Hurricane Sandy plunged the presidential campaign
into an unprecedented period of uncertainty, leaving both sides scrambling to
grasp the right tone for voters coping with a historic natural disaster. The
monster storm, likely the biggest “October surprise” in history, left both
campaigns without a script, forcing them to make uncharted, and potentially
politically-damaging, decisions on the fly. Some campaign rallies were
cancelled, while others were rebranded as hurricane fundraisers. LINK
=================
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario