If the army don’t fulfill demands of people, next uprising will be stronger

If the army don’t fulfill demands of people, next uprising will be stronger
HAZ, Sunday, 13 2011.

Whatever Tantawi does or don’t, is being highly scrutinized by Egyptian citizens and the whole international community. Here we start with two articles, one from Reuters (France) and the other from The Guardian (UK) and then I will make a comment on the Egyptian perspectives for real democracy.

Yesterday Reuters article reads: “Egypt military rulers under pressure from protesters” many of them are decide to stay in the Tahrir Square until the military in power announce the time-table for meeting the demands of the people. Sat Feb 12, 2011: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/13/us-egypt-idUSTRE70O3UW20110213
Today (Sunday Feb 13) the Guardian said “After the revolution, the ballot box” or else. Their job is to help implement the demands of the people. Their job is not to run the elections, they rig many of them. They have to allow a Civilian Council do this job. This hybrid of popular revolution with military coup has not sustainable bases. A civilian council for democracy can and must emerge. So far the military is acting in its own interests, and as usual serving the interest of the White House rulers.

“There is a fundamental mismatch between the kind of political movement represented by the activists in Tahrir Square and the kind of state that is run by men with guns” said The Guardin, “There is no evidence yet that the army plans to renege on its commitments to facilitate a transition to popular rule.” But in the absence of mature civil institutions, the fear of chaos can be used as excuse to prolong their rule, though the Law states that in cases like this (real coup d’état) they have 60 days to call election. The generals may argue that democracy is a project for the long term and then they will try to extend their length in power ever further. However, the fact is that most Egyptian are fed up with militaries in civilian dress, they want a civilian government.

The need for organization to run elections

“Egyptians have demonstrated a passion for free speech and free association over the last 18 days, but the process of channeling those impulses into party politics is not simple.” It is true as is true the fact that that the only organized political force is the Muslim brotherhood (MB).

This keep nervous the US and Israel, but the not the Egyptian people. The fact is that the flag and the spirit of the Tahrir Square revolution had a dominaant secular tones. The sheers with the flags displayed were more secular and the singing of the national anthem also reveals a sense of unity in the social movement that has much to do with secularism than with Islamism. So, if chaos or the pretext of chaos is used as excuse to postpone elections under Civilian Committee for Democracy, this manipulation of fear will not prevent the pacific emergence of civilian Committees to run election in different towns and from the bottom up. This feeling in favor of a civilian committee to run elections is now being supported for broad social base at local and national level.

If the military coup do not help the implementation of the civilian committee to run elections, it is very likely that this will emerge independently from them. The central civilian committee will NOT be either Muslim or Christian. But religious groups cannot be excluded from the process of national rehabilitation, so there are chances that they will be included as separate counselor or advising committee in support of the political ones. The religious committee may have voice but not decision making power. Secularism will prevent the rush in American and Israelites.

The army’s conflict of interests

The army is deeply involved in economic business, its corruption, and the mismanaged of the national economy. “The military controls large estates of land and has stakes in businesses ranging from tourism to olive oil production" and trade business in the Suez Canal. "That creates an obvious conflict of interest. The army is now expected to manage a process of political liberalization, but that will be hard to deliver without economic change. Unemployment and inflation were key spurs to popular revolt”.

The army has earned a well deserved respect from the civilian population, but I can be lost if they do not transfer power to a civilian committee before 60 days. New uprising may result in more HR violations could come in the name of order and the file on crimes against humanity will be big, incorporating the uses of children inside the thugs who caused several death in Tahir Square at the begining of the revolution, there are more than 300 civilians killed and this envolve the new staff in power.

Other Guardian article reproduce this statement. “In Tahrir Square, we lost our fears and found ourselves”. This statement describes what millions of people feel right now. It means that while the liberation square exist, that energy that fuel the revolution will exist. This feeling won’t be erased from their memory and spirit with brutal repression –if the army plan to do so-, it will be more likely that the respect for past military glories will be erased in the mind of the nation.

Sources

1. Sat Feb 12, 2011 Reuters editorial: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/13/us-egypt-idUSTRE70O3UW20110213
2. The Guardian: “Egypt: After the revolution, the ballot box” The job of the generals is to help implement the demands of the people. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/13/observer-editorial-egypt-democracy
3.The Guardin. In Tahrir Square, we lost our fears and found ourselves. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/13/actor-on-egyptian-overthrow