Nueva Democracia: March 11 2022 SIT ECON y POL

March 11 2022 SIT ECON y POL

ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

NOMURA: "FED IS SHORTING S&P CALLS"-DYNAMIC REMAINS LOCKED-AND-LOADED

by Tyler Durden

...keeping a lid on Equities exuberance...

The earlier spike in US futures - following somewhat optimistic tones from Putin - have all been erased by actual events and the reality of significantly more unhappy America than expected (from UMich)...

See Chart

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-11_08-21-09.jpg?itok=kkkJJLe4

However, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott details below, there is a much stronger dynamic at play that is driving the daily roller-coaster in stocks - and may well continue through the FOMC next week (and the massive $3.3 trillion options expiration next Friday)

US Equities refuse to break-down and it need be noted, considering and thanks in large part to a lot of “contras”:

1) the chronic underpositioning from both HFs and Systematics both being de facto “short” alongside historically high MF cash levels,

2) horrific Equities sentiment (our multi-asset SPX Sentiment Indicator at just 16.1%ile since 2004),

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image003_5.png?itok=ReBQixNx

3) the absolute nothing-burger in the Ukraine “talks” yday,

4) the 40 year high US CPI print,

5) worsening Commod supply / demand realities extending the “inflation overshoot” risks and

6) Treasury Yields pushing back near local highs again on

7) re-escalation of “hawkish” CB expectations (pushing back up to 4.5 implied Fed hikes by July and 6.5 by Dec, with VERY real Delta of a 50bps in May)

The S&P 4200 Put floor has been such an incredibly strong support level with $3.8B Gamma there (largest of any strike by-far), but while too, seeing the $3.0B $Gamma 4300 strike as pretty solid overhead resistance over the past week (although pushing a touch through it on the Putin + headline, for now)...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image001_10.png?itok=07ItdE8E

...so the “range trade” remains intact, even if you expand it out to 4400 ($2.4B $Gamma).

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-11_08-19-57.jpg?itok=fBmUIpXo

This continues to evidence a previously-noted dynamic about “day trading” of options into this frenetic headline backdrop, where short-dated Puts are by-and-large “working” and convex, perpetuating the persistent Dealer “Short Gamma” / “Short Delta” dynamic amplying the illiquidity into concerns of global CB tightening on inflation overshoot and Ukraine…but as soon as we see relief rallies, the downside stuff gets monetized fast, while also bleeding OTM downside Puts—all of which kicks-off more (positive) Delta / buying.

That Dealer covering of “Short Delta” (hedges) then too forces covering / buying in sized-up buyside “dynamic Short” hedges in futs / ETFs / singles / baskets (which is simply another form of “Short Gamma” in the marketplace), accelerating into the occasionally vicious rallies we’ve been seeing—but from there, what keeps happening is that these rallies are 1) either being De-Grossed into and / or 2) sees traders back reloading their Downside / buying Puts by end of day...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image007_3.jpg?itok=ejpSNXO0

This means my ad nauseum “Fed is shorting SPX Calls” dynamic remains locked-and-loaded, as Equities relief rallies only allows them more “rope” to really lean-into “hawkish” rhetoric locally, in order to sustainably move FCI tighter and help soften the “demand” side of the Inflationary equation over the coming 2-3-4 months, keeping a lid on Equities exuberance.

Finally, McElligott notes that next week’s Op-Ex is the real opportunity to see a more sustained Equities rally, because alllllllll of that downside loaded into on Fed FCI tightening and Ukraine escalation (SPX downside 3900 strike @ $1.4B Gamma, 4000 @ $2.4B, 4100 at $3.2B, 4200 at $3.8B) is at real risk of melting / decaying into expiration with Vanna- and Charm- “kickers”

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-fed-shorting-sp-calls-dynamic-remains-locked-and-loaded

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UKRAINE CONTRADICTS PUTIN, SAYS "ZERO PROGRESS" IN CEASEFIRE TALKS

"...hard for me to understand what kind of progress President Putin is referring to."

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BITCOIN SLIDES ON REPORT RUSSIANS SEEK TO LIQUIDATE "BILLIONS IN CRYPTO" IN UAE

"We have one guy – I don’t know who he is, but he came through a broker – and they’re like, ‘we want to sell 125,000 bitcoin’. And I’m like, ‘what? That’s $6 billion guys."

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ONLY 18% OF AMERICANS SAY THEIR WAGES ARE KEEPING PACE WITH SOARING INFLATION

Will Biden blame this on Putin too?

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OIL-SPIKES AND ECONOMIC-OUTCOMES

Oil spikes have historically negatively impacted economic outcomes

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UMICH SENTIMENT SLUMPS IN MARCH AS 'HOPE' PLUNGES, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS SURGE

...highest 1-year inflation expectations since Dec 1981...

Following February's plunge to new post-COVID lows, March's preliminary University of Michigan sentiment data was expected to fall even further, plumbing new lows not seen since 2011. However, things were much worse than expected with the headline sentiment print dropping from 62.8 to 59.7 (well below 61.0 exp) as expectations plunged (from 59.4 to 54.4) and current conditions slipped from 68.2 to 67.8...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-11_07-02-54.jpg?itok=4xG-dP1P

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, inflation expectations soared with the highest 1-year inflation expectations since Dec 1981...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-11%20%281%29.png?itok=26YTAcgI

And we all know who is to blame for that right! That evil man who last name starts with a 'P'... (take your pick)

SOURCE:

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/umich-sentiment-slumps-march-hope-plunges-inflation-expectations-surge

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

BIDEN EXECUTIVE ORDER BANS SALE, SUPPLY OF US DOLLARS TO RUSSIA

President Biden is set to announce more actions this morning to further isolate Russia economically from the rest of the world (except of course, the 2.7 billion people living in China and India).

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BIDEN: NATO-RUSSIA CONFLICT WOULD BE "WORLD WAR 3", WARNS KREMLIN OF "SEVERE PRICE" IF CHEMICAL WEAPONS USED

"Would the US have a military response if Putin does launch a chemical weapons attack?" a reporter questioned.

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RUSSIAN MISSILES HIT TARGETS NEAR POLISH BORDER IN LIKELY "MESSAGE TO NATO"

More troops from the NATO Response Force (NRF) arrive in Romania

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US-WORLD ISSUES

Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars

DRONE FROM UKRAINE WAR TRAVELS OVER MULTIPLE NATO COUNTRIES BEFORE CRASHING IN CROATIA

Croatia's president questions "how a relatively unsophisticated drone flew for over an hour over NATO countries without being detected."

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RUSSIA ALLOWS CHINESE BANKS TO BUY OIL WITHOUT LETTERS OF CREDIT TO BYPASS WESTERN SANCTIONS

Russia's oil giant Surgutneftegaz has allowed Chinese buyers to receive oil without providing guarantees known as letters of credit (LC) in order to bypass Western sanctions.

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DIDI SHARES EXTEND COLLAPSE, DOWN 42% AS CHINA TECH STOCKS SLIDE

It's ugly.

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IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS ABRUPTLY SUSPENDED - RUSSIA SLAMS AS "DIRTY MISREPRESENTATIONS" THAT IT SABOTAGED DEAL

Talks fall apart at moment it was thought a deal was within reach

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SPUTNIK NEWS :

https://sputniknews.com/

-China Faced Cyberattack From US Soil to Target Russia, Chinese State Media Reports

-No Plans for Offensive on Donbass? Docs Show 48% Boost in Kiev's Defence Industry Output in 2022

-'Necessary' to Ban Facebook, Instagram If They Allowed Calls for Violence Against Russia - Kremlin

-Watch Russian Drone Eliminate Stronghold of Ukrainian Radicals

-Pentagon Claims North Korea Tested Elements of Its New ICBM

-NATO Chief: Turkey Is Informed Alliance Expects All Members to Impose Sanctions Against Russia

-Russian President Putin Holds Meeting With Members of Security Council

-REAKING: 'Necessary' to Ban Facebook, Instagram If They Allowed Calls for Violence Against Russia - Kremlin

-Norwegian Energy Giant Equinor Stops Trading Russian Oil

-Putin Agrees to Idea of Sending Foreign Volunteers to Ukraine

-Prosecutor General's Office of Russia to Examine Companies Leaving Country's Market

-Twitter to Reduce Visibility of Belarusian State-Owned Media Tweets

-US and Poland Play Chicken Over Sending Fighter Jets to Ukraine

….

March 11 2022:

SIT EC y POL SPANISH

REBELION

EU-PAL Guerra RU-UKR saca a luz hipocresía de EU sobre Palestina Alaa Tartir

Pesadilla: PUTIN, BIDEN, XI JINPING Mike Davis

Opin: PAGAR LO INNECESARIO A RU POR LA DECADENCIA DE US F G. Jaén

Ecol: Amazonia cerca a su punto de inflexión, pasaría de selva a sabana E R

BRA: PARA VENCER AL FASCISMO Paulo Cannabrava

ARG- Horacio Tarcus: DEFENDER LA MEMORIA DE LAS LUCHAS

Video R: 8MARZO ¡SALIERON A LUCHAR! https://youtu.be/yEBPI69vo

ALC: Guatemala aprueba ley sexista y antiabortista Giorgio Trucchi

Opin: EL ERROR DE VETAR A RUSIA en la comunidad científica Kristin Suleng

ARG: LA DEUDA ES LA GRIETA Medardo Ávila

ARG: Se les cayó la careta. En silencio fueron afinando los números del ajuste

Crisis y rebeldia: juzgados provocan miles de trabajadores despedidos E R

BRA: Sin Ref agrarias y urbanas, las tragedias se repetirán cada vez más» G B

España: Nuestra alimentac depende de cereales, se debe impul su investigación

Econ: LA DESTRUCCIÓN ENERGÉTICA MUTUA ASEGURADA Robert Kuttner

Rusia: ¿DE LAS SANCIONES A LA RECESIÓN? Michael Roberts

Lula: BRASIL ESTÁ SIENDO DESTRUIDO Emir Olivares y Arturo Cano

BRA: LULA Y LAS POSTURAS DE IZQUIERDAS EN BRASIL Emir Sader

Chile: El Talón de Aquiles del Presidente Gabriel Boric Juan Carlos

Cuba: Agradecen a Cuba ayuda en formación d jóvenes gambianos

Ecuad: Un frente para construir poder popular Luis Cubillos

España Un siglo de luchas y resistencia comunista Enric Llopis

MX: El enemigo n 1 del gobierno es el mov feminista Carlos d Urabá

España: Antimilitarismo y objeción de conciencia en tiempo d guerra

USA ESPEJO David Brooks

UE: Córcega crítica situac de Yvan Colonna inflama calles y empuja a la unidad nacionalista Maite Ubiria

UE: VIAJE AL FASCISMO UCRANIANO Guadi Calvo

Mund: Política de poder de grandes potencias: racionalizar el caos R Orozco

Mund: MANIFIESTO SOBRE UCRANIA Varios autores

Mund: Cientos de miles de yemeníes salieron a las calles de Sanaa y otras ciudades para denunciar el bloqueo impuesto por EEUU

ISR: 25.000 toneladas de baterías usadas y bloqueadas por Israel se apilan en Gaza

C I J: UCRANIA VS. RUSIA A LA CORTE INTERNACIONAL DE JUSTICIA (CIJ) N Boeglin

La Corte callo cuando NATO asesino miles del Donbass (Lugansk y Donetsk), e invadió y tomo control ilegal del Gob de Ukraine convirtiendo al Presid electo en un pelele al servicio de la OTAN (se violo asi el Ado Minsk) y amenazo la soberanía de países pro-RU en la región en el afán de avanzar sobre los ductos del petróleo RU que cruzan la zona. El real invasor de Ukrania es la OTAN y los países y bancos que los arman y financian (el US-UK y los bancos de la Union europea que han montado un sin-numero d sanciones contra RU. Esta fue y es declaración abierta de WW3 y la C I J tampoco no dijo nada al respecto.

Algunos analistas han expresado sus dudas sobre el C I J y se preguntaron ya si esta CORTE solo sirve los intereses imperialistas del oeste (bancos que financian y que aplican sanciones antirusas todoslos días y entidades de guerra como el PENTA que arman las tropas anti-rusas).

La prensa oficial hablo ya del posible uso de bio-quimicos que se usaron en Iraq y en Syria y hasta se habló ya de la contrata de mercenarios que al parecer están ya siendo usados en Ukrania. Pero La prensa oficial desinforma y miente de forma escandalosa: se dijo por ejemplo que RU había destruido un hospital, luego se dijo que era un ‘maternity clinic’ donde se había asesinado a niños, luego un soldado anti-ruso y mal herido indico que no habían niños en esa maternidad y que ellos usaban ese local para atacar tanques rusos. Se gravo esa declaración y va a la Corte C I J si los rusos deciden darle credibilidad a esta Corte. Pero por los pronto RU ha indicado que no comparecerán ni darán ninguna información al C I J.

Si esta Corte indica o admite que lo actuado por ambas partes (RU-NATO) ya es guerra entonces se aplica los 30 principios jurídicos del JUST IN BELLO y todos los de NATO se van a la cárcel por haber asesinado a miles de Lugansk y Donetsk antes de que invadan los Rusos y por los crímenes cuando usaron los 30,000 soldados pro NATO estacionados 1ro en Poland y que fueron enviados a Ukraine (soldados que hoy estan huyendo derrotados).

Si la Corte indica que lo actuado es pro-guerra JUS AD BELLUM y que su intención es detener la guerra y negociar la paz, entonces solo se aplicaría los 4 principios del Just ad Bellum: How to get?

1- Proper authority

2- Just Cause

3- Right intent

4- Peaceful end

Si la Corte no esta de acuerdo con las propuestas Jus in Bello and Just ad Bellum entonces se tendría que recurrir a instancias Juridicas Estatales o regionales y/o a instancias jurídicas de Nivel Global que la Asamblea de la ONU reconozca como tal.

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

- West made mistakes in relations with Russia – top EU diplomat

- Putin tells Belarusian president of ‘some positive developments’ in Ukraine talks

- Exploding prices, energy and aviation crisis: What will the blowback be from anti-Russia sanctions?

- Facebook and Instagram to allow calls for violence against Russians

- Top US spies explain Ukrainian ‘biolabs’

- ‘Why did the Ukrainians have to kill us?’: Refugees fleeing Donbass talk to RT

- 'We will never go back to Ukraine': DPR fighter jailed for his views by Kiev talks to RT

-Experts tell RT how Russian offensive in Ukraine will end

CROSS TALK

https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/

- CrossTalk: Liberal order collapse

The west’s liberal world order has collapsed and the hegemony it sought to maintain and expand. The conflict in Ukraine is a proxy war, the real target is Russia and indirectly China. The law of unintended consequences is in play

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GLOBAL RESEARCH

- Facebook and Instagram to Permit Posts Calling for Violence Against Russians and Death of Putin By The Independent

- Amidst Ukraine Crisis, Canada Is Quietly Trying to Boost Gas Exports to EU, Documents Show By Geoff Dembicki,

- Zelensky Rubbishes Biden’s War on Russia By M. K. Bhadrakumar,

- Germany Deserves a Big Share of the Blame for the Disaster in Ukraine By Dave Lindorff,

- 5G Radiation Causes ‘Microwave Syndrome’ Symptoms, Study Finds By Children’s Health Defense

- Health Officials End Reporting COVID-19 Deaths By Dr. Joseph Mercola

Creen el microbio anti-WW3 y todos los idiotas del mundo compra la vacuna

- NATO Is a Destabilizing Force for the US Empire By Timothy Alexander Guzman

- South Front Taken Offline for Objective Reporting on Ukraine By Kurt Nimmo

- Ukraine and Biowarfare Conspiracy Theories By Ron Unz,