Nueva Democracia: Mar 15 2022 Part B SIT ECON y POL

Mar 15 2022 Part B SIT ECON y POL

ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

PETRODOLLAR CRACKS: SAUDI ARABIA CONSIDERS ACCEPTING YUAN FOR CHINESE OIL SALES

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its some of its oil sales to China in yuan.

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SO MANY RUSSIANS ARE BUYING GOLD THAT CENTRAL BANK HALTS BANK PURCHASES

"Currently, households' demand for buying physical gold in bars has increased,

driven, in particular, by the abolition of value-added tax on these operations..."

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FOMC PREVIEW: THE FIRST RATE HIKE SINCE 2018

by Tyler Durden

With inflation running red hot, the Fed is expected to hike rates by 25bps

tomorrow.

Central banks face a challenging trade-off: do they react to the labor market close to full employment and near record jump in inflation visible even before the latest energy price moves to prevent a further unanchoring of inflation expectations to the upside, or do they react to the considerable downside risks to the economic outlook from a massive geopolitical and energy price shock, preferring not to add volatility to the current market environment. The ECB opted for the former, and the Fed is expected to follow suit.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/geopol%20risk%20index.jpg?itok=bUut0PQl

Tomorrow the Fed will hike 25bps - its first rate hike since Dec 2018 and the first liftoff (from zero) since Dec. 2015. In his recent testimony to Congress, Chair Powell summed up the compromise that the FOMC appears to have reached by noting in his recent testimony to Congress that he will support a 25bp hike at the March meeting, but is open to hiking by more than 25bp at a future meeting if inflation surprises to the upside or remains persistently high.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fed%20funds%20rate%20upper%20bound_0.jpg?itok=vLPQu1wG

See More charts at:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-first-rate-hike-2018

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Business is Business: nothing to do with Russophobia & other phobias

TESLA BOUGHT RUSSIAN ALUMINUM TO MAKE BODY SHELLS FOR MODEL Y

Tesla, Inc. purchased millions of euros worth of aluminum from Rusal, the second-largest aluminum supplier in the world, which is based in Russia, according to new internal documents obtained by CNBC.

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POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF PLUNGING GAS AFFORDABILITY

Via Global-Macro-Monitor.com,

This chart illustrates how many gallons of gas – the national average of all grades and formulations – the average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees can purchase. We believe it’s imperative to give context to and normalize data.

See Chart:

Gallons of Gas per Average hourly earning

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/gas_ahe.jpg?itok=p-kK95nA

Our estimate for March is that the average wage of production and nonsupervisory workers, as measured by the BLS’ Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), can purchase 6.4 gallons, which is up from the low of 4.4 gallons in July 2008, and significantly lower than the high of 13.8 gallons in February 1999.

Political Blowback

Think of the political implications of these data.

In the 1998 midterms, for example, the Democrats accomplished a relatively rare feat of gaining House seats while they held the White House, even during President Clinton’s impeachment.

The high gas price relative to wages in July 2008 during #43’s presidency presaged the sound defeat of the Republican Party in the 2008

Not saying gas prices are the only factor that determine election outcomes, but it is a factor. Moreover, the gas price appears to have an outsized impact on consumer psychology.

Everything Bubbles

We forgot what an “everything bubble” the economy was before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). However, the current “everything bubble” is more steely, driven by central bank base money rather than leverage in the housing market. All-cash purchases have replaced the mid-aughts wild and crazy exotic subprime mortgages.

Moreover, the amount of private equity and investor money pouring into the housing sector has, among other factors, created a shortage of single-family homes,

Might the fact that corporate investors snapped up 15 percent of U.S. homes for sale in the first quarter of this year have something to do with it? The Wall Street Journal reported in April that an investment firm won a bidding war to purchase an entire neighborhood worth of single-family homes in Conroe, Texas—part of a cycle of stories drumming up panic over Wall Street’s increasing stake in residential real estate. Then came the backlash, as cool-headed analysts reassured us that big investors like BlackRock remain insignificant players in the housing market compared with regular old American families. – Slate

We conclude then and have been consistent in our belief that this “everything bubble” will end not with the popping of a credit bubble, such as the GFC, causing a deflationary impulse. But, a crisis brought on by inflation — it may be a political crisis or the major central banks panicking and overshooting in their efforts to normalize monetary policy as they lose control of inflation. It may be a Black Swan.

Nobody knows with any decent level of certainty.

Stay tuned.

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/political-implications-plunging-gas-affordability

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WALL STREET MOOD TURNS APOCALYPTIC: MAJORITY SEES BEAR MARKET & STAGFLATION; OPTIMISM LOWEST SINCE RIGHT BEFORE LEHMAN

by Tyler Durden

In late 2021 we noted a gaping divergence in one of Wall Street's most closely watched surveys, the BofA Fund Manager Survey: while the number of respondents seeing a stronger economy had collapsed, the allocation to stocks remained near record high levels, resulting in what we called a "historic divergence".

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bofa%20FMS_2.jpg?itok=g9FeUj1c

Well, the divergence is no more: after several months of tentative declines, Wall Street sentiment in March has finally hit rock bottom and according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey conducted by Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett in which some 341 panelists with $1 trillion in AUM were polled, global growth optimism has crashed to the lowest since July 08, two months before Lehman crashed.

See Chart:

Global growth pessimism to lowest since Jul’08 but equity allocat no recesionary

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FMS%20global%20growth%20pessimism.jpg?itok=CKMxgnCU

Continue reading and see more charts at:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-mood-turns-apocalyptic-majority-sees-stagflation-bear-market-optimism-lowest

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Daily Briefing: Will Commodity Prices Drive Inflation Even Higher?

by Tyler Durden

It’s safe to say the macro environment is unsettled right now, to an extent not seen in decades, and financial markets are correspondingly volatile.

Crude oil prices are now down nearly 30% from recent highs, as investors weigh the demand impact of new COVID-19 lockdowns in China against supply constraints owing to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Wheat has also backed off but is still up nearly 40% since Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the Producer Price Index for February was up 10% year over year and 0.8% month over month, as recent spikes for energy and food inputs promise a “faster for longer” rate of rise. Still, the major U.S. equity indexes were all trading more than 1% higher through midday.

This is all prelude to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee. Inflation is the main enemy for the Federal Reserve.

But global stress – heightened by reported talks between Saudi Arabia and China about the former accepting the yuan in payment for oil rather than the U.S. dollar – must be weighing on Jerome Powell and company.

Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of war in Eastern Europe on commodity and financial markets and how policymakers are likely to try to manage it all. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KKXSai

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/daily-briefing-will-commodity-prices-drive-inflation-even-higher

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

SENATE PASSES RESOLUTION TO UNDO TRANSIT MASK RULE; ROMNEY ONLY REPUBLICAN TO VOTE WITH DEMS

No surprise there...

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"GUILTY UNTIL PROVEN INNOCENT" - BIDEN SIGNS NEW BACKDOOR GUN CONTROL INTO LAW

Submitted by The Machine Gun Nest (TMGN).,

President Biden has signed a $1.5 Trillion spending bill that sends $13.6 Billion to Ukraine and funds the Government until September. The bill itself passed the Senate with a bipartisan 68-31 vote

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Ultra-rightist?.. or paid to vote?

49 REPUBLICAN SENATORS WILL OPPOSE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

In a sign that getting the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran through Congress might be difficult, if not impossible, 49 out of 50 Republican Senators have announced they will not back any deal that doesn’t limit Iran’s missile program and "confront Iran’s support for terrorism."

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) was the only senator to not come out opposed.

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I like this ugly ghost, but not as president: deceitful. talk peace & make war

HALF OF AMERICANS DON'T THINK BIDEN WILL RUN IN 2024: WSJ POLL

by Tyler Durden

A new Wall Street Journal poll found that roughly half of Americans don't think President Biden will seek re-election in 2024, as the country's oldest president grapples with runaway inflation, the remains of the pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

According to the poll, 52% of Americans don't think Biden will run for re-election, while 29% do, and 19% are undecided. Among Democrats, 41% said they think he'll run again, 32% said they don't think he will, and 26% were unsure.

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Stupid Greenwald live in another planet: unable to see NATO as 1^st UKR terrorist

GREENWALD: RUSSIAN INVASION HAS ELEVATED "TREASON"-MANIA TO NEVER-BEFORE-SEEN-HEIGHTS

Authored by Glenn Greenwald via greenwald.substack.com,

The crime of "treason” is one of the gravest an American citizen can commit, if not the gravest. It is one of the few crimes other than murder for which execution is still a permissible punishment under both U.S. federal law and the laws of several states

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Quick News:

CHINA'S "DO-NOTHING APPROACH KEEPS RUSSIA ON LIFE SUPPORT" PLAYS BOTH SIDES AGAINST MIDDLE

BY VBL

Economic IV drip should keep Russia alive just enough to keep everyone in line.

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RUSSIA SANCTIONS PRESIDENT BIDEN, SECRETARY BLINKEN & TOP DEFENSE OFFICIALS

CIA Director William Burns: Russian state media announced in a Tuesday statement:

"Russia on Tuesday sanctioned US President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and ten other administration officials and political figures. Moscow has said that the sanctions are a reciprocal measure, imposed after Washington blacklisted top Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin."

Despite the measures being largely symbolic - as it will be essentially impossible for Moscow to actually go after US officials' assets unless they are held in Russia itself (and certainly no top American official is looking to travel to Russia anytime soon) - it signals that tensions with the West are ratcheting fast, with increasingly few off-ramps as the two sides chart a war-footing course

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ELI LILLY HALTS SALES OF ALL NON-ESSENTIAL DRUGS IN RUSSIA

by Tyler Durden

Here's one deprivation the Russian people probably weren't expecting.

American drugmaker Eli Lilly has decided to halt export of all non-essential drugs to Russia,

including its blockbuster erectile dysfunction drug, Cialis.

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A voice from a pocked. FACT: Zelensky do what NATO wants. He lost the Govt.

Zelensky Says "Ukraine Must Recognize It Will Not Join NATO" As Ceasefire Talks Resume

by Tyler Durden

Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podoliak confirmed in a message posted to Twitter on Tuesday that "negotiations are ongoing" after the meeting was "paused" the day prior.

"Consultations on the main negotiation platform renewed. General regulation matters, ceasefire, withdrawal of troops from the territory of the country," he stated. This as the AFP is reporting of the Ukrainian President's latest surprise comments, coming on the 20th day of Russia's invasion: "Zelensky says Ukraine must recognize it will not join NATO."

….

[ But: the want who decide is NATO. Can Zelensky take NATO out from Ukraine? NO. They will do it or kill the puppet. Zelensky ‘withdrawal of troops’ only apply to Russians, not to NATO mercenaries: the one who install terrorism is NATO. The mercenary world-press never mention NATO terrorism, they accuse RU ]

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A HISTORIC DAY ON DECK: POWELL HIKES, PUTIN DEFAULTS

BY Tyler Durden

Tomorrow we get the highlight of what has already been an event-packed week, when at 2pm the Fed will hike rates for the first time since December 2018, raising the Fed Funds rate from 0% where it has been since the covid crisis to 0.25%. The widely telegraphed rate hike will be the first of many as the Fed scrambles to contain inflation which has led to a record high, double digit PPI and the highest CPI since the early 1980s, when the Volcker Fed hiked rates as high as 20% to contain galloping inflation. And, in doing so, the Fed will also set the US economy on course for a crash landing, with forward OIS market already pricing in almost 2 rate cuts over the next three years, a number that will only grow as the US slides into a crippling recession over the next few quarters (we will have a full FOMC preview later today).

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/3y%20-%201y%20ois.jpg?itok=YP50V1Ex

Also tomorrow, another even more momentous event may take place when Russia is due to make two interest payments on its dollar bonds on Wednesday, but it is unclear whether western investors will actually receive their cash in dollars, in devalued rubles, or at all, potentially lining up a uniquely messy government debt default, the first since 1998 which eventually led to the collapse of LTCM and the start of the too big to fail bailout culture which defines the US financial system to this day.

Continue reading at:

SOURCE:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historic-day-deck-powell-hikes-putin-defaults

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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

- Russian Foreign Ministry Calls Council of Europe NATO’s Propaganda Tool

- Fitch Says Would Classify Russia's Payment on Dollar Bonds in Rubles as Sovereign Default

- US Administration Wants to Earn Political Points on Russophobia

- Palestinians Side With Russia Despite Their Leaders' Decision to Stay Mum

- UK Security Services to Look for Alleged Putin's Assets in London

- Russia Ready for Dialogue on Ukraine Seeking Diplomatic Solutions

- Video: Russia's Drone Destroys Ukrainian Armoured Vehicles