DEC 9 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
TRASH DASH
DASH DOUBLE TRASHES TECH; DOLLAR BID SPARKS BULLION & BITCOIN BREAKDOWN
Well that all escalated quickly. Some disappointing comments from Washington on the COVID Relief bill appeared to combine with some algo-chaos around the insane IPO release of DoorDash to spark the market's worst day in over a month...
See Chart:
DASH
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-12-09_12-59-18.jpg?itok=sZqWl4qA
Could it be possible that DASH marked the top?
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-12-09_13-00-28.jpg?itok=B_-h7nKC
Remember, it's definitely not a bubble... Over-Supply much?
See Chart:
Renaissance IPO Index
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD6E4_1.jpg?itok=dVpflBBg
VIX was chaotic today with some flashy-crashes pre-open, only to ramp back above 22.50...
See hart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-12-09_13-04-45.jpg?itok=3oidVAZo
Dow dropped back to 30K numerous times but was mysteriously bid each time...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-12-09_12-56-36.jpg?itok=E_Wg_zsS
FANG stocks were clubbed like a baby seal (worst day in a month), not helped by a massive anti-trust suit against FB...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD510.jpg?itok=uTVZWMpN
Most-Shorted Stocks suffered their biggest loss since Oct 30th today...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6C99.jpg?itok=wZaoi5hs
Yesterday's surge in stocks was not followed by credit... and today's stock weakness was payback...
See Chart:
S&P / HYG
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1059.jpg?itok=vhvoIxi9
Interestingly, with stocks hammered, bonds were unable to mount a decent rally with yields higher on the day (up around 1-2bps)...
See Chart:
UST 10 Y Yield
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm8B77_0.jpg?itok=p8cWRfIy
The dollar ripped higher today...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm291D_0.jpg?itok=shEXoAIU
Finally, one wonders if we hit peak greed once again?
See Chart:
Fear and Greed overtime
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-12-09_12-18-07.jpg?itok=IayrN6u9
And we know what happened the last time that happened...
See Chart:
S&P 500
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7FB4.jpg?itok=Wh5d2bSP
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-12-09_0.jpg?itok=QJGjC6fF
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A $1.1 TRILLION BOOST: WHY JPM SEES STOCKS RISING AS MUCH AS 25% NEXT YEAR
"Adding up all the projected equity demand changes between 2020 and 2021 and subtracting the supply change, we come up with an equity demand/supply improvement of $1.1tr in 2021 relative to 2020."
With the S&P hitting an all time high above 3,700 on Tuesday (ahead of today's sharp correction, which may lead to an entirely different hot take from JPMorgan's crack strategist) one would be correct in assuming that any research reports out of JPMorgan published yesterday would be super bullish (after all, JPM has to convince as many clients as possible to buy whatever JPMorgan's prop desk has to sell to them), and sure enough in the latest note from JPMorgan's Nick Panigirtzoglou the bulls got yet another "justification" to keep buying stocks at all time highs. The reason: according to the JPM quant, 2021 will see a net improvement in stock demand/supply to the tune of $1.1 trillion, which of course should - in theory - lead to higher prices.
According to his goalseeked analysis, Panigirtzoglou writes that "for 2021 we see an overall improvement in equity demand of around $600bn relative to this year." This projected improvement will be driven by incremental demand from retail investors as well as Sovereign Wealth Funds and Risk Parity funds. At the same time, JPMorgan also expects that "global net equity supply will return next year to the very low levels of 2016-2018, i.e. a decline of $500bn relative to this year, as share buyback/LBO activities normalize and the need for equity raising subsides."
Meanwhile on the supply side, one way to gauge net equity supply is to look at the change in the free float of the global equity universe as captured by tradable indices such as the MSCI AC World index. Adjusted for price and fx changes, this change in the free float should capture the increase or decrease in the quantity of shares available to market participants in each period.
This proxy of net equity supply, shown in Figure 6, suggests that global equity supply had been most of the time positive in the past, as equity issuance and dilution activities tended to outweigh equity withdrawal activities at a global level. But this had not been the case between 2016 and 2018, as global equity supply had been close to zero or negative. In other words, between 2016 and 2018, there was a three years in a row of unprecedentedly low global equity supply. This was due to weak IPO and equity offering activity, coupled with stronger buyback activity, especially during the repatriation episode of 2018. During 2019 there was a big increase in equity supply due to an improvement in equity offerings including IPOs, but also a significant downshifting in share buyback activity in the US from the strong pace of 2018.
See Chart:
Net Equity supply globally
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/net%20equity%20supply.jpg?itok=pcPzorVz
According to JPM calculations, this year global net equity supply has been close to $500bn, only slightly above last year’s supply and half of what the bank had previously projected for this year. This year’s overall equity withdrawal has held up much better than we had previously expected, as a sharper decline in announced share buybacks was more than offset by stronger than expected M&A and LBO activity… This view implies a large reduction in equity supply of around $500bn from this year’s pace.
So where does this leave us for next year in terms of the overall equity demand/supply balance?
Adding up all the demand flow changes between 2021 and 2020 and subtracting the supply change, JPM comes up with Equity Demand/Supply improvement of around $1.1 trillion in 2021 relative to 2020.
See Table:
Annual change in global Equity Demand/Supply balance
Why is this notable? Because this is similar to the equivalent Equity Demand/Supply improvement in 2019 relative to 2018, which at the time had seen global equities rising by around 25%.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/11-trillion-boost-why-jpm-sees-stocks-rising-much-25-next-year
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Brief news:
SAN FRANCISCO RENTS PLUNGE 35% AS EXODUS CONTINUES
"They're gone."
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"WHERE'S THE INFLATION?": WAYNE GRETZKY HOCKEY CARD EXPECTED TO FETCH $1 MILLION AT AUCTION
“Prices have surged over the last few months. In addition to nostalgia, there are also a lot of economic factors: Money is cheap right now and people are buying hard assets to hedge against future inflation.”
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WELCOME TO THE U.S.S.A.'S BANQUET OF CONSEQUENCES
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
The incontestable incompetence of the USSA's monopolies, institutions and agencies is about to take center stage in 2021. The sociology of collapse will be followed by a not-be-missed banquet of consequences...
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
HUNTER BIDEN REVEALS HE IS FACING TAX FRAUD INVESTIGATION
CNN just reported that the probe is focused on his dealings with China
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ONE THIRD OF US STATES HAVE NOW JOINED TEXAS SCOTUS BID TO OVERTURN ELECTION
First it was Louisiana, now Eric Schmitt, the Attorney General for Missouri, announced on Tuesday that he will join Texas in the battle to Supreme Court.
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"It’s not the right thing to make it mandatory..."
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Biden in favor of war with China.. no difference with Trump. Path to suicide as Nation
WHAT BIDEN'S FIRST 100 DAYS MIGHT LOOK LIKE
...the truly formidable challenge for a President Biden will be China, which is not the China of 2016 that Vice President Biden recalls...
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BIDEN CAMPAIGN BECOMES FIRST IN HISTORY TO RAISE $1 BILLION FROM DONORS
Biden heavily from big-money super PACs and "dark money" groups.outspent Trump on the airwaves in key swing states... He also had superior backing
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
CHART OF THE WEEK: CHINA CREDIT IMPULSE
This is certainly one of the most important indicators for investors looking to know where the global economy is heading into next year. It is worth watching it as it leads the global economy by 9 to 12 months.
The below chart represents the evolution of China credit impulse which is basically the change in the growth rate of aggregate credit as a percentage of gross domestic product. According to Saxo, "this is certainly one of the most important indicators for investors looking to know where the global economy is heading into next year. It is worth watching it as it leads the global economy by 9 to 12 months."
In terms of investment decision, the strong push in credit from China should be good for risky assets (notably emerging and frontier markets) and contribute to the reflation narrative.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20credit%20impulse.png?itok=IdobMdDK
It's not just Saxo that is keeping a close eye on the Chinese credit impulse, which we said many years ago is one of the most important macro regime shift indicators: as we have shown before, there is a 15 month lag between China's credit impulse and the Bloomberg metal commodity index, where prices should surge as they track - with a lag - Chinese credit injections. This means far more commodity inflation is just around the corner.
See Chart:
Finally, the most important lagged correlation is between China's credit impulse and 10 Year Real rates. If this correlation persists over the next year, expect a substantial spike in real rates, from their current deep depressed and negative levels, all the way to 1% or so, a move that would have profound consequences for global markets.
See Chart:
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chart-week-china-credit-impulse
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ISRAEL SUMMONS RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR AFTER BLISTERING CRITICISM OF ATTACKS ON IRAN & SYRIA
"The problem in the region is not Iranian activities," Ambassador Viktorov told Israeli media.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Britons to Face Ban From Travelling to EU Countries Starting 1 January
- Bird Flu Detected in 8 Japanese Prefectures,
- Netizens Troll Melania Trump Over Report That First Lady ‘Just Wants to Go Home’
- Markets in Asia-Pacific Trade Lower Amid Uncert Over UK-EU Trade Deal and US Relief Bill
- US Marine Corps Willing to Equip Infantry Units With Drone Swarms
- Proposed Boost of EU Sanctions on Turkey 'Disappointing', Turkish Presidential Spoke
- Facebook Confident It Can Prevail Over US Government Anti-Trust Actions
- Biden to Pick House Staffer Katherine Tai for US Trade Representative
- US Treasury Sanctions Chinese Organized Crime Boss 'Broken Tooth'
- Chinese Def Ministry Denounces Potential $280 Million US Military Sale to Taiwan
- ‘Absolutely Reprehensible’: US Anne Frank Memorial Vandalized With Swastika Flyers
- US Senate Defeats Attempt to Prevent Trump Adm's Sale of Reaper Drones to UAE
- US Cryptocurrency Creator Faces Criminal Tax Evasion Charges
- US House Passes Emergency One-Week Funding Measure for Federal Gov
- Biden Considering Black Jewish ‘Spy Whisperer’ Darrell Blocker as CIA Chief
- US Developing New Nuclear Systems to Power Space Missions, New Bases
- Johnson, Der Leyen Agree Firm Decision Should Be Taken by Sunday on Brexit Talks
- Seventeen US States Back Texas Bid To Overturn Biden Election
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