martes, 29 de octubre de 2019

ND OCT 29 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  OCT  29 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
 
ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

The market is priced for a rate-cut tomorrow (94% odds and The Fed has never disappointed when priced this high)...
See Chart:

But, what stocks won't like is that Fed Funds appear to be pricing a cut-and-pause...
See Chart:

The weak open was bid/squeezed but after 1400ET, "Most Shorted" stocks started to accelerate lower into the close...
See Chart:

Treasury yields ended the day practically unchanged ahead of tomorrow's FOMC, but bonds rallied from weakness overnight...
See Chart:

The Dollar ended lower for the second day in a row...
See Chart:

Finally, as stocks hit new record in intraday highs, the last six months has been dominated by defensive positioning as cyclicals remain lower...
See Chart:

With US Macro data dumping in October (down 10 days in a row) after Q3's "use it or lose it" panic...
See Chart:
….
----
----
GOOD HISTORY OF MISS-MANAGE
The day of reckoning may soon be upon us, how it arrives is the question...
With our national debt blowing past 23 trillion dollars nothing is as sobering as looking at future budgets. We should be worried.
This also underlines the reality that any claims Washington makes about the budget deficit being under control is a total lie.
See Chart:
US NATIONAL DEBT  1900-2020

This is a time when it would be wise to remember numbers don't lie but the people using them do. This report is an example of how they re-frame a colossal train wreck into something more palatable. The report even goes so far as to assure us that the deficit will fall to 1.4 percent of the GDP in 2028, from its current 4.4 percent. As a result of the American economy having survived with little effect what was years ago described as a financial cliff we have become emboldened and now enjoy a false sense of security. Today instead of dire warning we hear news from Washington and the media how the stock market continues to push into new territory and all is well.
See Chart:
Fiscal Responsility: Debt would  double under Obama Plan
A Time For Action, 1980?
Back to 1980 it was about billions of dollars of debt, today it is about trillions of dollars. It appears that something has gone very wrong.
See Chart:

By the end of the 70s inflation started to soar. Only by taking interest rates to nosebleed levels was then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker able to bring inflation back under control. Paul Volcker, a Democrat was appointed as Federal Reserve chairman by President Carter and reappointed by President Reagan. Volcker is widely credited with ending the stagflation crisis where inflation peaked at 13.5% in 1981. He did this by raising the fed fund rate which averaged 11.2% in 1979 to 20% in June of 1981.  This caused the prime rate to hit 21.5% and slammed the economy into a brick wall. This also affected and shaped the level of interest rates for decades
See Chart:

America has kicked the can down the road, failing time and time again to face the tough decisions. Part of the problem is the amount of debt has grown so large that we can no longer imagine or put a face on it. The day of reckoning may soon be upon us, how it arrives is the question. Many of us see it coming, but the one thing we can bank on is that when it arrives many will be caught totally off guard.
….
SOURCE:
----
----
"The US economy appears to be slowing, and respondents expect still slower growth over the next 12 months." 
====
...thanks to a small upward revision, October confidence slipped to its lowest since March with expectations weakest since January.
See Chart:
….
----
----
The point here is simple. No professional, or successful investor, ever bought and held for the long-term without regard, or respect, for the risks that are undertaken...
See Chart:
Reported earning boosted via Buy-Backs
….
----
----
...it's just been in remission!
====


US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Aimed at 'affirming the ongoing, existing investigation that is currently being conducted by our committees.'
====
Whether you support Donald Trump or not, the truth is that every American should be deeply alarmed by what is happening in Washington right now...
====
It is imprecise to say this city is divided over Trump. It is rather almost solidly united behind what millions of Middle Americans believe to be a deep state-media conspiracy to overturn the 2016 election and effect a coup d’etat...
====

US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

“The technology and increasing use of artificial intelligence and increased productivity will also substantially increase the wealth gap, the job gap, the wealth and ideological conflicts within countries...”
====
Turkey allegedly not informed Russian soldiers would approach the border post...
====
A Bitcoin mining company owned by Russia’s internet ombudsman is planning to open a new facility and corner 20% of the international market...
====
Two same-day "gifts" to Erdogan, and on the 96th anniversary of the founding of Turkey as a republic no less.
====
India’s second (and largest) nuclear power unit stopped operating on 19th October 2019. It is suspected that the Kudankulam Plant was hit by a cyberattack and authorities were already alerted of the threat months in advance...
====


SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3



NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
UE:  Europa y los refugiados  Iosu Perales
ALC:  Haití y la necesidad de otro mundo  Cristóbal León
España  La Transición a debate  Gustavo Hernández
Opin:  Alguien tiene miedo   Carolina Vásquez
ALC:  Perdón Guatemala, te fallamos  Ilka Oliva
US:  La invitación de Sanders  David Brooks
ARG:  Macri, la peor inmundicia  Andrés M. Sarlengo
====
ALAI ORG
BOL: Los verdaderos demócratas deben reconocer a Evo  Juan Grabois  Apenas inicie su nuevo mandato: debe cambiar todo el Ejecutivo e integrar gente del Pdo de Oposicion. Si no lo hace: la Izq va a ser barrida por muchos años. Con sangre nueva la cosa cambia
Opin: Guerra siempre, guerra por doquier  Ana Esther  et al. Es el mensaje de Trump
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
----
----

COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Kent Paterson   Mexico’s Refugees
Simon McCarthy-Jones  Freedom of Thought is Under Attack
John W. Whitehead  The Politics of Tyranny
----
----

GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

----
----

DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

----
----

lunes, 28 de octubre de 2019

ND OCT 28 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  OCT  28 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

"We're in a more fragile situation where consumers are more skittish." 
We're beginning to see more evidence that suggests the consumer is the next domino to fall.
Cracks are developing across the auto loan spectrum as subprime defaults accelerate at rates not seen since the dark days of 2008.
See Chart:
Growing Delinquencies in auto loans

Consumer Cracks Emerge in Debt Markets
Wall Street has overlooked the cyclical downshift in employment, which started in January 2019, has caught many analysts off guard, despite the stock market hitting new all-time highs thanks to President Trump's tweeting.
See Chart:
Job Growth downturn

The downshift in employment could spook analysts later this week and through year-end. This alarming trend has forced companies in the last several months to stop hiring and halt wage increases.
See Chart:
US NOFARM PAY ROLL

Wall Street's massive bet on the consumer this late in the cycle is a fool's errand, that is because the consumer has already cracked, and it's the recent explosion of serious auto delinquencies has marked the death of the US consumer as the economic downturn is expected to broaden through 2020.
See Chart:
NY FED CREDIT PANEL: Students debts per capita & Credit card Balance

The big trend to unfold through 2020 is the implosion of the consumer and a broadening economic downturn.
….
----
----

Conventional wisdom nowadays says deficits don’t matter, but that ignores the “vulnerability” of the current business cycle being so dependent on federal deficits.
The decade-long growth cycle might appear that monetary and fiscal policymakers have become so adroit that it can offset every potential dip in economic activity and create an endless and uninterrupted expansion. That would be a mistake
One area of potential vulnerability has to be the scale of continuous support from federal deficits to finance public and private spending.
In 1990s the federal government budget recorded a surplus. In the fiscal year ending on September 30th, the US recorded a $984 billion budget deficit (4.6% of GDP), a clear sign that in its 10th year of expansion the current cycle is still heavily dependent on support from the federal sector.
See Chart:
Cumulative Fiscal Budget Deficit

The question is not whether these relatively large deficits can continue but what happens if they do? Based on current policies, the Congressional Budget Office projects that annual budget deficits will average $1.2 trillion a year over the next decade, or 4.7% of GDP, essentially the same scale in relation to the economy of the past decade.
See Chart:
US deficit as % of GDP

Throughout the post war period fiscal policy has been reactive at times, but it has never been so accommodating for so long.
Conventional wisdom nowadays says deficits don’t matter, but that ignores the “vulnerability” of the current business cycle being so dependent on federal deficits.
It is always difficult to predict what “shock” could trigger the next recession, but the reliance on federal deficits to support public and private spending should draw attention to the structural weakness of the current cycle. At present, the US economy is vulnerable to any type of shock, and fiscal policy is in a uncertain position as it cannot reverse course and introduce fiscal drag into an economy so dependent on budget deficits, nor is it in a position to help moderate the effects of a shock if one occurs. Policymakers understand that they cannot prevent every recession, but large budget deficits add instability to a weak economic environment, raising the odds of a bad outcome.
….
----
----
See the last charts here + selected one.  Go to source to see the rest
President Trump was correct when he forecast this morning that "stocks would have a good day today," as despite disappointing economic data, stocks short-squeezed (again) to new record highs...

"It's not the economy, it's the liquidity, stupid!"
See Chart:
US MACRO  vs. Global Liquidity Proxi  &  S&P

Mixed day for US stocks with Trannies barely able managed gains while Nasdaq and Small Caps surged...
See Chart:

While the S&P makes new highs, the median stock is making lower highs..
See Chart:
ValueLine Geometric Index

PG&E shares collapsed even further as millions of Californians remain without power..
See Chart:

And PG&E bonds were a bloodbath...
See Chart:

Treasury yields were all higher on the day with the long-end notably underperformin
See Chart:

The yield curve (3m10Y) steepened dramatically today, shifting to the phase of imminent recession in the past...
See Chart:

The dollar chopped around into the US open but ended the day lower...
See Chart:

Despite a drop in the dollar, oil and PMs had an ugly day after Trump promised a good day for stocks...
See Chart:

Finally As US economic data continues to disappoint after Q3's "use it or lose it" government spend-fest surge...
See Chart:
US MACRO surprise Index
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA344_0.jpg?itok=V3LHQ-KC
….
----
----

US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

“The historical amnesia about the dangers of communism and socialism is on full display in this year’s report...”
====
"...there is no constitutional requirement that the House of Representatives authorize an impeachment inquiry before one begins."
====
NYC taxpayers have shelled out $89 million on rent alone..
====

US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Mataron al muerto que ya murió varias veces  o está vivo en 1 Hospital RU or del USA, SOLO la CIA y la KGB lo saben.. Lo cierto es que estaba gravemente enfermo. ‘Me lo das y yo retiro mis tropas’ puede ser el  deal: QUID PRO QUO . FACT: no evidence of death
                [[ The blast could be evidence of ‘post rescue’ ,  to cover the operative ]]
The compounded was obliterated in a massive airstrike in order “to prevent the site from becoming a shrine to the leader.”
[[ FOR IRAN: the killing og Budhdadi “NOT A BIG DEAL” US REMOVED HIM AFTER HIS EXPIRATION DATE”. If KILED IN US RAID, MAY FUEL ANOTHER CYCLY of VIOLENCE  www.rt.com/newsline/472042 : Us has to move troops out of Syri
----
----
Really murio el muerto?  Stained Underwear only tells  that he was severely ill.
"Test results gave certain immediate and totally positive identification..."
….
WHY TO BE PROUD  OF IT?  RU already said that IF US killed Baghdadi means a great victory against terrorism. Does it means that US won’t use anymore  ISIS type of terrorism or other coming from SAUDIS?..  The intention of claiming victory may reveal just the opposite:  A-that the death is alive & B-that the US will  continue using these resource: terrorism.  IF Baghdadi is death: the same + with Saudis consent. [[ This is a nice story-tell: The underwear that talks’]]
----
----
The real fatigue in the West today is having to listen to these tired, shameless specters shout at us while we drag them kicking and screaming into the light to burn...
The anomalies of Brexit and Donald Trump’s election were about to be reversed  by the force of his beloved open society.
But is that the case?
  • If so why can’t Brexit be betrayed once and for all?
  • Why can’t Trump be removed from office for all of his crimes against decency?
  • Why can’t Open Society Foundation operate in places like Hungary, Turkey and Russia?
  • Why are populist, anti-immigration parties like Alternative for Germany (AfD) surging, frustrating Soros’ ideal centrist coalitions that have ruled post-war Europe (and nearly destroyed it) for the past seventy years?
Nearly a year ago I published a piece called,Have We Reached Peak Soros?” in which I outline the hurdles that Soros and his co-conspirators in The Davos Crowd face over the next two generations.  Anne Rice
….
----
----
In short, there isn’t a continent that isn’t seeing unrest in some form, and as Branko Milanovic notes today, one wonders if this isn’t all a little 1968-ish.
====

SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
----
----

NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
Chile:  Carta abierta a Salvador Allende  Miguel Lawner
ECON:  Solo nos queda el capitalismo?  Michael Roberts
Mundo:  Occidente enmascarado  Mario R. Fernández
ECOL: Ent a Dahr Jamail   "Estamos en el precipicio"  M R
Opin:  Distopías del fin del mundo  Teresa Cabrera y Hugo Cuevas
ARG:  SE VA MACRI  Victoria Ginzberg
ARG:  NO PUDO  Mario Hernandez
Boliv:  Bolivia y el descaro de la OEA  Cristóbal León
Boliv :  La “solución por el desastre”  Rafael Bautista S.
PAL:  La inútil lección de los nazis  Sheldon Richman
España   El libertario y el voto   Javier Sádaba
COL:  Paquetazo colombiano  Pablo Nariño
====
ALAI ORG
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
----
----

INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

Caliph closure: ‘He died like a dog’  By Pepe Escobar Que evid tienes de q murió?
U.S. loots Syrian oil : Russian MoD   By Mazen/Gh.A.Hassoun
----
----


GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

----
----

DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

----
===