viernes, 4 de septiembre de 2015

SEPT 4 SIT EC y POL

SEPT 4 SIT EC y POL



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RT DOCUMENTARIES & LATEST SHOWS

Documentary.  ECUADOR THE POISONED RAINFOREST. January 23, 2015, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Chevron received the "Prize of Shame". The award highlights the world's most irresponsible corporations. NGOs blame Chevron for "the ecological disaster caused by the oil exploitation in Ecuador.  http://www.rt.com/shows/documentary/314335-ecuador-poisoned-rainforest-texaco/  

Image URL: http://cdn.rt.com/files/2015.09/original/55e94fc3c46188c82f8b4568.jpg This VIDEO can only be viewed on RT’s live feed.  Time of broadcast is available on RT’s schedule page
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Documentary.  ISIS vs Christ  In early 2015, a small Egyptian village was dealt a cruel blow.  ISIS killed 20 men from Al-Ur because they were Christian. Now their families take comfort from their faith as they to come to terms with the loss. http://www.rt.com/shows/documentary/314064-isis-christ-egypt-martyrs/
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ZERO HEDGE



That ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said about the ECB hitting a supply brick wall, was right. … the ECB asset-backed securities purchasing program"hasn’t been as successful as we’d hoped."… Why? "It’s simply because they are running out. There are simply too few of these structured products out there."… So six months later, the ECB begrudgingly admitted what we said in March 2015, in "A Complete Preview Of Q€ — And Why It Will Fail", was correct. .. The centrally-planned house of cards is finally starting to shake uncontrollably. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-04/imf-just-confirmed-nightmare-scenario-central-banks-now-play

[ Central planning did not exist in the west .. what they had was a decentralized system coordinated by the greed of big corp .. these big corp played casino or lottery with the economy and some time they win.. and if they fail, they request -as it happens today- a bailout with a QE, know called a QT.. this scenario was never controlled by Central Banks .. there was not such central command .. the system was a collage of conflicted interests easy to be dismembered as it happen today when the over production feed by slaved work in China did not match the raise in salaries expected (excpetion Germany & 2 Scandinavian countries) .. since there was not purchasing power to buy the over production the neoliberal system collapse … and all assurances given by Insurance Co failed .. nothing to be secured during heavy time of volatility .. the neoliberal system nest pa march, it has to be replaced .. and the IMF cannot do anything save the already death system .. only a RIP ]
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Over the past month or so, we’ve spent quite a bit of time detailing the effect the death of the petrodollar has had on Saudi Arabia’s financial position. Recapping briefly, Riyadh’s move to Plaxico itself in an effort to bankrupt the US shale space late last year has forced the kingdom to draw down its petrodollar reserves to ensure that ordinary Saudis aren’t affected by plunging crude. Add in a proxy war (or two) and you get a budget deficit of 20% to go along with the first current account deficit in ages. The cost of maintaining the riyal’s peg to the dollar doesn’t help either. 

The king will reportedly discuss a number of rather pressing issues with the Obama administration including Riyadh's involvement in Yemen, where, as we detailed on Thursday, a former US counterterrorism "success story" is now on the verge of splitting into two separate countries. Of course the Iran nuclear deal will also come up, especially in light of the fact that, as The New York Timesnoted earlier this week, "Republicans are considering legislative options to counter the deal, including the possible reimposition of sanctions the agreement is supposed to lift," now that the President has secured the support he needs to sustain a veto of a GOP challenge.

Perhaps more importantly, the two leaders will also discuss Syria and oil prices, with the latter issue now having a rather outsized impact on America's shale producers as well as on US majors' capex plans. Needless to say, the real question from a geopolitical perspective is whether Obama and King Salman come to any closed-door agreements on Syria where, as Al Jazeera delicately puts it, the US and Saudi Arabia are set to orchestrate a "managed political transition."
Meanwhile, over at The White House blog:


[ no es el amor al “ugly” cerdo bien perfumado- .. es el amor a los chicharrones .. a los petro$$ que ya no sirven ni para limpiar el asco que deja el cerdo criminal de Yemen. … Alguna vez un Pdte americano dijo que apoya a los dictadores de fuera  porque “son mis hijos de p…”  Esto incluye al cerdo Saudi ]
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With Labor Day upon us, newspapers across the US will be printing op-eds calling for a mandated “living wage” and higher wages in general. In many cases, advocates for a living wage argue for outright mandates on wages; that is, a minimum wage set as an arbitrary level determined by policymakers to be at a level that makes housing, food, and health care “affordable.” All in all, it’s quite a bizarre strategy the living-wage advocates have settled on. It consists of raising the prices of consumer goods via increasing labor costs. Real wages then go down, and, at the same time, many workers lose their jobs to automation as capital is made relatively less expensive by a rising cost of labor. While the goal of raising the standard of living for workers and their families is laudable, it’s apparent that living wage advocates haven’t exactly thought things through.

[ Failed??.. not yet .. save your crocodile tears.. Moral argument?? .. if the raise of salaries compensate the loses the working classes got in this decaying system.. and if such raise create a balance with the amount of money given away to rich people in America, the 1%, the bankers & big Corp from Wall Street via the QEs coming.. know called QT.. This is the time to implement a new Glass-Steagle Act.. but it seems the Fed Govt plans to serve the 1% .. that is not a moral argument ]
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[ Both QE & QT are evil twins.. they serve the same interest: the greed of big bankers & big Corps ]

QT will be a fresh dose of domestic QE. That means the Fed will not only have to shelve its plan to allow its balance sheet to run down (a plan I never thought remotely feasible from the moment it was announced), but to launch QE4, and watch its balance sheet swell towards $10 trillion. Of course, these monetary crosscurrents should finally be enough to capsize the U.S. dollar.
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Like pretty much everything in the modern U.S. economy, wealthy and connected people fleecing taxpayers in order to earn even greater piles of money is also the business model when it comes to sports stadiums. … Many cities have tried to make voter approval mandatory before these building boondoggles get started, but in almost all cases these efforts are thwarted by a powerful coalition of businessmen and corrupt politicians. Sound familiar? Yep, it a microcosm for pretty much everything else in America these days.

[ It is Circus with degraded bread .. since 2008 the bread quantity & quality have been degraded little by little, as happens with other consumer products in America .. so we’re paying more price for less ]
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"STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), health, and business majors are the highest paying." Here's where to look for lucrative STEM employment.

[ What I see in Pgh PA is the creation of new “universities” in which they do not care for STEM.. just a “for profit business” intending to get money from the poor middle classes.. Certainly rich students go to Univ who really care for STEM .. but if there is not labor market for them .. the graduated has to do gardening in the house of their parents .. STEM abilities become wasted time & money ]
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The most incredible aspect of Hillary’s e-mail scandal is the media’s total dismissal of a simple fact — Hillary DID NOT use the government’s e-mail system — she used her own. She claimed she was unaware that you could have two e-mails on one phone. That alone shows that she is not qualified to be president.

[ The last statement is true .. but may be true also that Mrs Clinton didn’t have money to silence Mr Martin Armstrong’s voice .. perhaps his arm was not strong but too big , as defected by DU.. los gitanos no se sacan la suerte entre ellos .. crook people knew well their tricks to waste time talking themselves  ]
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"Time will tell who is right. But remember that we live in an era where computer trading dominates the American stock market. The "robots" that are making a lot of trading calls aren't sitting around pondering China's economy. They are paying attention to whether stocks fall below key levels. What are those levels? No one knows exactly. But these two metrics are worth watching. If these thresholds are crossed, both computer and human traders will consider it a game-changer point."

[ Meanwhile we have to pray old saints that don’t make miracles anymore.. what an idiocy! ]
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We can look at official statistics to get a sense of inflation, but these numbers are totally meaningless. When I was a kid, my father earned enough money to support his family with a single salary. We had a house, a car, an occasional vacation, and we never missed a meal. All on one income. But those days are long gone. Now it’s almost obligatory to live in a dual-income household just to make ends meet. The official statistics never paint this picture.
[ Our neoliberal system is collapsing .. do not look behind.. history can kill you.. If you insist in history.. search for FDR New Deal and his Glass-Steagall ACT.. that will renew your sense of life ]
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As Bloomberg reports, Qatar is now doing the same, "raising money from local banks as the slump in oil prices buffets the finances of the Middle East’s largest oil and gas exporters.".  READ also:  End Of Cheap Fossil Fuels Could Have More Severe Consequences Than Thought

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Why Capital Is Fleeing China: The Crushing Costs Of Systemic Corruption. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/04/2015 [Capital Is Fleeing China? vs. crook US capital is banned in China ]

Corruption isn't just bribes and influence-peddling: it's protecting the privileges of the few at the expense of the many. Rampant pollution is corruption writ large: the profits of the polluters are being protected at the expense of the millions being poisoned. What China will be left with a poisoned land stripped of talent and capital.

[ If the US bomb China .. is the US that will be left with a poisoned land stripped of talent and capital]
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Pentagon Admits Russian Spy Ship Discovered Near US Submarine Base, Heading For Cuba. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/04/2015 [ Is this pure psychopathic paranoia or calculated plan to attack RU? ]

On the heels of the unprecedented proximity of 5 Chinese naval ships in the Bering Sea, U.S. military satellites have been tracking a Russian spy ship - capable of cutting undersea communications cables and other sensors - since it was spotted in the north Atlantic last month off the coast of Kings Bay, Ga., home to the U.S. Navy’s East Coast ballistic missile submarine fleet. As FOX News reports, The Pentagon says the ship is transiting toward its next destination - Cuba.
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While conspiracy theories of Trump's run as a disruptive influence in the Republican ranks to 'help' Hillary seems to be floundering following his pledge and jibes yesterday, it appears the two have more in common than anyone could have believed. It turns out Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are distant cousins - sharing royal blood that runs deep in their family lines. No wonder The Oligarchy is so comfortable ruling over us serfs.

[ More than close cousins they are two sides of the same dirty coin.. the billionaire oligarchy dreaming to alternate in power  to reproduce the neoliberal system .. just when this system became obsolete ]
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Is This Why Copper Is Collapsing? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/04/2015

Copper prices are in free-fall this morning, slammed lower by the "good-enough" jobs data. But we suspect the real reason lies elsewhere... According to Gartman “WE MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN COMMODITY BOTTOM”  Image URL:  http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/09/20150904_copper1.jpg 
"I do think that the worst is absolutely behind us because all anyone ever talks about is how awful the commodity market is. I think for the first time in a long time it's proper to be bullish commodities; they may still go down some but I have my severe doubts." Gartman http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-04/why-copper-collapsing

[ This trend will affect severely the Economy of Chile, Peru & other exporters of copper ]
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According to the BLS, the main reason why the unemployment rate tumbled to the lowest since April 2008 is because another 261,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force, as a result pushing the total number of US potential workers who are not in the labor force, to a record 94 million, an increase of 1.8 million in the past year, and a whopping 14.9 million since the start of the second great depression in December 2007.
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With the refugee crisis in Europe reaching epidemic levels and European leaders impotent, it appears an Egyptian Billionaire has a solution. As Al-Arabiya reports, Naguib Sawiris has offered to buy an island off Greece or Italy and develop it to help hundreds of thousands of people fleeing from Syria and other conflicts.

[ What is the difference between “solitary confinement”  and this solution for the refugees? .. or the plan is to create a private prison with cheap-slaved people inside? .. or  worse even if this billonaire is a muslim neo-nazi and the real plan is to bomb the Island “by mistake” .. In whatever case, billonaires are the most stupid animals regarding policy making .. This won’t solve either the socio-economic problem of refugees .. or the moral responsibility of the US-EU-NATO  whose wars created this mess ]
Read my short story tell #57: “Me compre una isla full of slaves”
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NEOLIBERAL HAPPINESS?  Read these ones:  Dow Dumps 600 Points From Last Friday's Panic-Buying Ramp, Drops 10% Year-To-Date. And this one: "We've Run Out Of Buyers" - Half Of Homes In New York Are Now Losing Value. Plus this one: Bull Or Bear?.  And this naïve hope: Must Be The Weather? . All of them in todays http://www.zerohedge.com/  Friday 9/4/15
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If wage growth for supervisory workers was indicative of the overall work force, the Fed could indeed claim mission accomplished and hike not 0.25% but 2.5%. There is a problem: supervisory workers only make up 17.5% of the US work force. As such, their wage gains are anything but indicative of the vast 140 or so million US workers. What about the wages for the remaining 82.5% of US workers: the non-supervisory one. Here is the answer... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-04/not-so-fast-those-rising-wages . An here the image URL with a different picture: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/all%20wages_0.jpg
This means that on an inflation adjusted basis, 82% of the US population can't even keep up with inflation!
Source : BLS
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"There is a general understanding that joint efforts in the fight against terrorism should go hand by hand with the political process in Syria. Assad agrees to this and has also agreed to early parliamentary elections and to include healthy opposition." 

 [ Bloomberg provide two conflicting arguments on this topic: 1st their interpretation of Putin words and 2nd  a quote from Putin saying totally different things…  quoted above:
1-   Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to early parliamentary elections and to share some power with his opponents, a concession that may facilitate a broader international coalition against Islamic State, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
2-  “There is a general understanding that joint efforts in the fight against terrorism should go hand by hand with the political process in Syria,” Putin said. Assad “agrees to this,” and has also agreed to early parliamentary elections and to include “healthy opposition” in the government, said Putin, a key ally of the Syrian president. Four Syrian lawmakers couldn’t be immediately reached for comment.
So Bloomberg is not a reliable source on this matter and RT didn’t say anything on it. This might be another false-flag .. from either side: US-RU]  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-04/putin-assad-would-accept-snap-elections-avoid-total-chaos
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What Happens After A Crash?. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/04/2015

Three words - retest the lows!
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INCREDIBLE LIE & PRETEXT FOR WAR: Chinese Warships Came Within 12 Miles Of U.S. Coast. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/04/2015

As WSJ reports, "Chinese navy ships off the coast of Alaska in recent days weren’t just operating in the area for the first time: They also came within 12 nautical miles of the U.S. coast, making a rare foray into U.S. territorial waters, according to the Pentagon."
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/04/2015 - 07:36
  • Jobs Report Could Seal the Deal on Rates (WSJ)
  • The Jobs Report and the August Curse: Jobs Day Guide (BBG)
  • Migrants hold out on Hungarian 'freedom train'; Orban says millions coming (Reuters)
  • Migrant Crisis Divides Europe (WSJ)
  • German industry orders fall in July on weak foreign demand (Reuters)
  • Alibaba’s Jack Ma, Joe Tsai to Borrow $2 Billion Against Shares (WSJ)
  • U.K. Retailers Post Worst Sales Decline Since Financial Crisis (BBG)
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Perhaps one of the most notable features of the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report - which those with a flair for the dramatic have once again dubbed the "most important ever" simply because it may greenlight (or not) a Fed rate hike (any NFP print at 230K and above likely assures a September move by the Fed - which Wall Street consensus sees rising by 217K in August (although with Goldman a far below consensus 190K, and Wall Street's biggest cheerleader Joe LaVorgna predicting only 170K one has to wonder) is just how hard the punditry is trying to talk it down, with everyone from Joe LaVorgna to Bloomberg explaining why it is very likely that - due to seasonals only, and nothing but seasonals - it will be a weak report, only to be revised higher.
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Moments ago, US equity futures tumbled to their lowest level in the overnight session, down 22 points or 1.1% to 1924, following both Europe (Eurostoxx 600 -1.8%, giving up more than half of yesterday's gains, led by the banking sector) and Japan (Nikkei -2.2%), and pretty much across the board as DM bonds are bid, EM assets are all weaker, oil and commodities are lower in what is shaping up to be another EM driven "risk off" day. Only this time one can't blame the usual scapegoat China whose market is shut for the long weekend.
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[ So, the plan is to attack both of them: RU & China with a 1st strike at the same time … Does the Pentagon knows the consequences of this attack.. if they expect no answer.. Nato’s are stupid ]
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GLOBAL RESEARCH


Who Is Responsible for the Refugee Crisis in Europe? Do not make stupid questions. Just place your thesis & say for instance US-NATO wars responsible for the refugee crisis in EU.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


This is a dangerous book to the status quo. It is truth-telling at its finest in America’s darkest age of entrenched lies.
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The Coming War with Russia. By David Pugliese
With large numbers of military forces operating in such close proximity, anything could happen
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Barbed wire along the Hungarian border. Barbed wire at Calais. Have we lost the one victory which we Europeans learned from the Second World War – compassion?
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For individuals like myself, born inside the frontier and soaked in its propaganda, the U.S. seems like A Very Important Thing.
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We expect the six year-long fake recovery to end much like it did in 1929.
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NEWS IN SPANISH


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Guatemala. Renuncia un genocida pero por corrupto. Ilka Oliva Corado
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EE.UU. "Efectos colaterales de la inmigración". Niños indocumentados en EE.UU. Anahí Rubin
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Colombia. -El logro de la paz será el triunfo más grande del pueblo colombiano.                        Delegación de paz de las FARC-EP
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Ecuador. -El Opus Dei, la mafia sagrada. Jaime Galarza Zavala
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PRESS TV


‘US expanding surveillance of Russia’. Fri Sep 4, 2015 Washington has expanded surveillance operations against Moscow, a political analyst from Virginia says.
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Yemeni forces kill 66 foreign troops. Fri Sep 4, 2015 Yemeni forces kill at least five Bahraini, 16 Saudi and 45 UAE troops in one day.
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'Iran to help Afghanistan restore security'. Fri Sep 4, 2015 The Iranian interior minister says Iran is ready to help restore peace and security to Afghanistan.
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'Congress run by corrupt Israel lobby'. Fri Sep 4, 2015 Opposition against the Iran nuclear accord in Washington highlights Israel's “enormous” influence on US foreign policy, a peace activist says.
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Wages declining for US workers : Study. Fri Sep 4, 2015 Wages have declined in the US since the 2009 recession and the lowest-paid workers are experiencing the steepest declines, a new study says.
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Obama hosts Saudi king at WH. Fri Sep 4, 2015 Obama will host Saudi Arabia’s King Salman on Friday at the White House, where the two will discuss the Iran agreement among other things.
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jueves, 3 de septiembre de 2015

SEPT 3 SIT EC y POL

SEPT 3 SIT EC y POL


ZERO HEDGE



Checking the sources used for this article:

Al-Nusra linked Twitter account posted pictures of a Russian drone and a Su-34 fighter jet - the kind which is not flown by the Syrian air force - flying over the Nusra-controlled western idlib province….

The Telegraph reported that "Syrian state TV reportedly broadcasts footage of Russian soldiers and armoured vehicle fighting alongside pro-Assad troops." .. It added that "an unnamed activist with the Syrian rebel group the Free Syrian Army told The Times: “The Russians have been there a long time."

[To conclude that ]
"There are more Russian officials who came to Slunfeh in recent weeks. We don’t know how many but I can assure you there has been Russian reinforcement.”

Then earlier today we got the closest thing to a confirmation from the White House itself which confirmed that… Obama spokesman Joshn Earnest essentially confirmed Russia was already operating in Syria  "Any military support to the Assad regime for any purpose, whether it's in the form of military personnel, aircraft supplies, weapons, or funding, is both destabilising and counterproductive."
And another confirmation: "a US official confirmed that "Russia has asked for clearances for military flight to Syria," but added "we don't know what their goals are."… "Evidence has been inconclusive so far as to what this activity is."

[ The tittle of this art didn’t fit neither the content nor reality.. what Joshn Earnest said was not an official statement of the White House.. So, the sources used for this “flashpoint” are very unreliable (some British media & US-CIA-Twitter ) they work in tandem with NATO and whatever they say on Syria belong the rituals of false-flags & distortion or misrepresentation of reality  .. In my opinion  this is just one more piece of anti-RU war mongerism .. in favor of regimen change]
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[ THIS IS A EUROPEAN PROBLEM .. The first time that some neocons in Texas placed a wall on Mx immigrants it was a FEDERAL ISSUE … the real problem in America & Europe now  is that is difficult to assemble a Union when the nation feelings are distorted by the corporate media & big private interest … THE ONLY WAY TO PUT TOGETHER SUCH A DIVERSE NATION-MOSAIC  IS TO CONSULT THEM VIA REFERENDUMS .. The Texas’ neocon racism failed .. Texan farmer-and business  accepted quotas of Mx immigrants to run their business  and the Federal need the immigrants to push down the salaries at Fed-Nation level  ..  The same will happen with the rightist in Hungary’s State, they will fail too … xenophobia & racism belong to the past.. So, what is really a European problem is the existing of such decaying ideological attitudes of Hungarian rulers. .. they are the ones who do not belong to the future of a strong EU.. If Hungary people want walls .. then placed in their whole state and then they will see that such appartaid will collapse in a matter of days.. unless they get weapons from the US as happens in Israel. In my opinion,Hungarian people wants to be part of EU .. to rich such a dream they have to take out from power their rightist local rulers  ]
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REMEMBER IT IS NOT FASCIST  WHEN WE DO IT. America’s descent into totalitarian violence is accelerating. It is a land in which facts have been redefined as enemy propaganda, a land in which legally protected whistleblowers are redefined as “fifth columns” or foreign agents subject to extermination, a land in which America is immune from criticism and all crimes are blamed on those whom Washington intends to rule.

[ En  “Las Uvas de la Ira” John Steinbeck narro los efectos de la crisis del 30 en la sociedad  USA en su conjunto. No solo los inhumanos se vuelven más inhumanos, los ricos, los que usaron la crisis para engordar sus bolsillos. .. También ocurre lo inverso, las clases trabajadoras se vuelven mas solidarias que nunca .. fueron los pobres de los community centers y los maestros  y las capas medias or “yuppies” los que se unieron para permitir que el sistema escolar no desaparezca,   aun cuando los super-intendents y los principals abandonaron sus puestos .. En situaciones de crisis es cuando nace abajo una revolución humanista “hidden” oculta .. silenciosa  pero palpable a todo nivel .. Aun en la mujer negra que había perdido su hijo y decidió amamantar con leche humana a un viejito blanco que debatía entre la vida y la muerte, como lo narra Steinbeck ..  Lo vi también en la crisis que nacio con la Rev zapatista en Mx … fueron estudiantes de la UNAM, la mayoría mujeres … las que viajaron a la selva lacandona como voluntarias para levantar las escuelas que el sistema Federal había abandonado .. allí la vi.. muriendo con las fiebres de selva .. por el delito de ser humanas en tiempos en la que metralla asesina del Federal enlutaba  Acteal. Decía el FED de Mx no tener dinero para esas escuelas ni para brindar salud a las voluntarias de la UNAM .. Estos ejemplo de humanismo, son revolucionarios en su esencia.. y son lo que permite a una Nacion seguir existiendo como tal.  De forma que no solo crece lo inhumano que describe Paul Craig .. también las crisis crean lo opuesto: humanismo revolucionario ]
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China is [NOT] going to sell large quantities of Treasuries. There is too much co-dependency between the US consumer and Chinese exporter. Destabilizing the US Treasury market with large sales would be tantamount to shooting themselves in the foot.

[ Lo que yo creo es que China camina hacia un modelo post-neoliberal y creo que si no lo hace su propio pueblo se encargará de desmontar a las actuales burocracias .. es para ellos cuestión de vida o muerte el abandonar el sistema neoliberal .. el transito tiene al parecer un plan A: la transición pacifica, y un plan B, la via violenta si es que se agrava la injerencia americana en la zona .. se vienen preparando para ambas opciones y todo depende de la forma como evolucione el macro-sistema Economico  y Geo-Politico .. es este contexto lo que definirá el valor del Treasury bond USA ]
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Why Economics Matters Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2015

IGNORANCE IS NOT BLISS: Ignorance of economics allows some very big falsehoods to be accepted as fact by large numbers of people. And it’s only going to get worse as the presidential election of 2016 unfolds.
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Turkey has cracked down on press "freedom" and whipped the public into a "terror" paranoia frenzy ahead of new elections set for November. The bottom line: while the Western media is preoccupied with China's censorship and stock market selloff witch hunt, a NATO member is busy nullifying a democratic election outcome and instigating a civil war, all in the pursuit of political power and all with Washington's explicit blessing.  
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Peak Obedience. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2015

Through the 20th century, the people of the West built up a very high compliance inertia.  People obeyed simply because they had obeyed in the past. Authority quickly became addicted to this situation, basing their plans on receiving every benefit of the doubt. Automatic obedience, however, is a brittle thing. Economies of scale are failing, the money cartel has been exposed, government schools have lost respect, mass media is fading away, and the game continues because the populace is distracted and afraid. And that will not last forever. The ‘walls’ of reflexive compliance are growing thinner. Any serious break may ruin the structure.
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To answer the question: yes, the US recession is hiding just under the "question mark" at the unexplained and perplexing divergence between industrial production, and actual end sales all of which result in a record inventory stockpiling which as we showed before, is what recently boosted Q2 GDP to an unsustainable 3.7% growth rate.
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"...we live in an age in which the policies of the past are coming to an end. The Keynesian model does not work, and our Empire does not work. This total failure has to change, and we need to present the alternative."
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We live in a Fiat economy where growth is fuelled by debt, and less and less from productivity and demographics. This takes place in a closed circuit with the US dollar as the reserve currency. The problem now is that the economy can not get restarted without changes to one or several parameters. Simply put, this fiat economy is unsustainable and must change, and we must adjust to slower growth and start actually producing.
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Mapping The Crisis Contagion Process: The Flowchart. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2015

We stand once again at the precipice of crisis and central banks are out of ammunition and, perhaps more importantly, completely out of credibility. Indeed, the fact that we are facing a new Asian Financial Crisis, emerging market mayhem, harrowing bouts of volatility accompanied by ever more frequent flash crashes across asset classes seems to prove that far from "smoothing out" the business cycle, Keynesianism gone wild in fact does the exact opposite: it creates the conditions for still greater booms and busts and thereby serves to destabilize markets. 

In light of the above, we present the following flowchart from BNP which should serve as a helpful roadmap for those wondering how we just went from one major crisis to another in the space of seven years and all we have to show for it is more debt and trillions in printing press money that did next to nothing to boost aggregate demand. 

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We are in the midst of an unprecedented global deflation. A real live bear market is once again at hand.
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The risk-off tide is rising, and sand castles of QE will only hold the tide back for a brief period of apparent calm.
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WTI Crude oil prices are in total panic buying mode this morning as the algos are fully in charge once again. WTI is up 5% this morning in a straight line since US equity markets opened (and USO went vertical). What is most ironic is thatSaudi Aramco just slashed prices for crude oil to everyone around the world.
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Democrats are the happiest relative to Republicans in over 3 months according to Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort index. In fact, whether because the market is tumbling or The Donald is soaring,Republican 'comfort' is the lowest since Nov 2014 while Democrat 'comfort' remains relatively stable... See Image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/09/20150903_bernie_1_0.jpg
Charts: Bloomberg
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As the chart below shows, in the age of artificially supressed volatility, even a plain vanilla market correction now generates the type of emotional shock comparable to the biggest market collapse since the Great Depression, and judging by the Google Trends chart, searches for "market crash" are on par with those recorded during late 2008!  Source: google trends
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Moments ago Challenger reported August job cuts, which at 41,186 were a 60% drop from the 115,730 reported last month (the highest since September 2011), which however was driven by a one-time mass layoffs last month in military staffing. Putting August in its correct perspective, the number was 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, when 40,010 planned job cuts were announced. So far in 2015 employers have announced 434,554 job cuts: that is up 31 percent from the 332,931 planned layoffs in the first eight months of 2014. What is worst, and what reveals the true picture of the economy, is that with monthly totals averaging 54,319, 2015 job cuts are on track to exceed 650,000 for the yeajesusr, which would be the highest year-end tally since 2009 (1,272,030).
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2015 - 07:32
  • U.S. Treasury's Lew says China will be held accountable on currency (Reuters) ... but not Japan
  • Bank of Japan Not Convinced of Need for Further Easing (WSJ)
  • Stocks Advance With Commodities on Signs of European Revival (BBG)
  • IMF Says China Slowdown, Other Risks Threaten Global Outlook (WSJ)
  • Xi Says China No Threat, Announces Military Cuts at Parade (BBG)
  • China holds massive military parade, to cut troop levels by 300,000 (Reuters)
  • Migrants leave Budapest for Austrian frontier; pressure builds for EU action (Reuters)
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All eyes will be on Mario Draghi on Thursday as expectations for something big from the former Goldmanite have grown over the past two weeks. More specifically, some now think the odds of QE expansion have increased considerably in light of collapsing eurozone inflation expectations, the incipient threat of some $1 trillion in QE-offsetting EM FX reserve draw downs, turmoil in China's financial markets, heightened volatility across the globe, and chaos in emerging markets from LatAm to AsiaPac.
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With China closed today, the usual overnight market manipulation fireworks out of Beijing were absent but that does not meant asset levitation could not take place, and instead of the daily kick start out of China today it has been all about the ECB which as we previewed two days ago, is expected - at least by some such as ABN Amro - to outright boost its QE, while virtually everyone else expects Draghi to not only cut the ECB's inflation forecast, which reminds us of the chart which in March we dubbed the biggest hockeystick ever (we knew it wouldn't last) but to verbally jawbone the Euro as low as possible (i.e., the Dax as high as it will get) even if the former Goldmanite does not explicitly commit to more QE.
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RT & LATEST SHOWS


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WASHINGTON BLOG


Is the Stock Market Now “Too Big to Fail”?. Posted on September 3, 2015 by Charles Hugh Smith. The U.S. stock market is integral to the global financial system in two ways.Now that investment banks, pension funds, insurers and multitudes of 401K retirement plans are dependent oncurrent equity valuations, a crash would impair virtually the entire spectrum of finance from hedge funds to banks to insurers to pension plans.
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NEWS IN SPANISH


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Cuba.  -El Papa y el Padre. Patricio Montesinos
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PRESS TV


'Taking Saudi as ally belies US rights claims'. Thu Sep 3, 2015 HRW says US partnership with Saudi Arabia stands in contrast with Washington's human rights claims.
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‘GOP candidates fighting for Zionist pie’. Thu Sep 3, 2015 Republican US presidential candidates are fighting to grab a big piece of the Zionist pie, an American scholar says.
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‘US plants seeds of fear about China’. Thu Sep 3, 2015 An analyst says that by “exaggerating” threats of a military encounter with China, the US spreads fear against the country.
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NATO opens new military post in Lithuania. Thu Sep 3, 2015 NATO launches a new military command center in the Lithuanian capital amid growing tensions with Russia over Ukraine.
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US launches advanced military satellite. Thu Sep 3, 2015 The US Navy has launched a new tactical communications satellite into earth’s orbit.
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IMF: China impact worse than thought. Thu Sep 3, 2015 The International Monetary Fund says China’s slowdown and other factors are pushing the global economy to much deeper trouble than originally thought.
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Turkey to blame for refugee crisis: Syria. Thu Sep 3, 2015 Syria’s deputy foreign minister blames Turkey for pushing Syrian refugees to seek asylum in Europe.
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'China’s warships spotted off US coast'. Thu Sep 3, 2015 For the first time ever, China’s military ships have been seen operating off the US coast, the has Pentagon confirmed.

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miércoles, 2 de septiembre de 2015

SEPT 2 SIT EC y POL

SEPT 2 SIT EC y POL

ZERO HEDGE


This nation has become a land where character and integrity are secondary to profits for the few and self serving interests of the powerful.  And as we are seeing already for the third time in this millennium’s infancy, stability and prosperity can be but short lived for even the highest paid CEO’s in such a world.
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In Dramatic Escalation, China Sends Five Navy Ships Off Alaska Coast For First Time Ever. S-by Tyler Durden on 09/02/2015  [ The escalation of war-business .. how many we put around China?  ]

WSJ reports, "five Chinese navy ships are currently operating in the Bering Sea, off the coast of Alaska, the first time the U.S. military has seen such activity in the area, Pentagon officials said Wednesday”.  Read this other one: Who Would Win World War 3? The Infographic  [ Of course US-Pentagon associates will be the winners if the quantity of weapons is the criteria . A MISSING FACT: we are already the top exporters of WMD .. what a way of honoring Obama’s  trophy on peace]
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The AIIB is quietly making preparations to officially commence operations and as Reuters notes, China is set to “rewrite the unwritten rules of global development finance” by doing away with certain conditionalities required by Western multilateral lenders. Here’s Reuters with the story:

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will require projects to be legally transparent and protect social and environmental interests, but will not ask borrowers to privatize or deregulate businesses for loans, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.

By not insisting on some free market economic policies recommended by the World Bank, the AIIB is likely to avoid criticism leveled against its rivals, who some say impose unreasonable demands on borrowers
“Privatization will not become a conditionality for loans," said a source familiar with internal AIIB discussion…"Deregulation is also not likely to be a condition," he added. "The AIIB will follow the local conditions of each country. It will not force others to do this and do that from the outside."
In reality the US and the IMF completely misread the Asian currency crisis that began in 1997, and their errors caused tremendous damage to crisis-struck countries in the region.

The decision of many Asian countries to participate in the AIIB is probably due in part to a distrust of the US born during the currency crisis.

With that, we will conclude with the following question: How ironic will it be when the first loans China makes through the AIIB are to the very same Asian countries who supported the new lender because of their negative experience with US-led institutions during the last Asian Financial Crisis.. [irony ??]
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As Jim Quinn explains, YOU are the enemy of the state. They don’t give a stuff about you. They treat you as sheep and cows to be sheared and milked. If you start questioning them, they will slaughter you. They have militarized the police forces and put you under 24 hour surveillance because they fear an uprising. There only a few hundred thousand of them and there are millions of us. A conflict is looming.
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It is time for a comprehensive audit of Janet Yellen ’s Federal Reserve - and not just for the reasons presidential candidate Rand Paul and others have given. The Fed needs to be audited to see if its ruling body has broken the law by manipulating financial markets that are outside its jurisdiction.
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Calstrs: the nation's second largest pension fund with $191 billion in assets (smaller only than Calpers), which as the WSJ reports is "considering a significant shift away from some stocks and bonds amid turbulent markets world-wide." According to the WSJ, it will move as much as $20 billion, or 12% of the fund’s stock  portfolio, into other assets, including Treasurys.
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Economies around the world are in shambles.All central banks and banking systems are overextended. So too are political entities. The geo-political situation is worse than any time since World War II. The nature of politics is to kick the can down the road. We are nearly out of road. The scam is likely at its end regardless of what is tried. The piper is coming for what he is owed.
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With all eyes glued to Friday's payrolls report, we thought it worth reiterating some 'facts' about US employment data. As ECRI notes, the sustained decline in the official jobless rate – now approaching the Fed’s estimate of “full employment” – is a misleading indicator of labor market slack. The data shows that the so-called jobs recovery has been spearheaded by cheap labor, with job gains going disproportionately to the least educated — and lowest-paid — workers. This is scarcely a good basis for resilient consumer spending driven by “solid” job growth that the consensus – including the Fed – is banking on.
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[ Excellent idea .. and the image that comes with this suggestion is good too ]
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Something is afoot as de-dollarization escalates around the world. With CNY/RUB trading volumes up a stunning 400% year-over-year to record highs, and hot on the heels of China's (and much of EM Asia) dumping dollar assets, Russian President Vladimir Putin has just unleashed a new bill aiming to completely eliminate the US dollar from the trade of goods.  READ ALSO:  Russia’s Putin Drafts Bill to Dump Dollar, Euro from CIS Trade
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US Manufacturers saw new orders rise at a modest 0.4% in July (missing expectations of a 0.9%). However, year-over-year Factory Orders crashed 14.7% (thanks in large part to last year's Boeing order dropping out of the cycle). But even ex-Transports, New orders tumbled 0.6% in July and plunged 6.9% YoY. This is the 9th month in a row of YoY drops and is without doubt signalling an imminent US recession...
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"One of the biggest problems we face is that there is no historical template for current global market conditions so we’re all flying blind to a large degree. Never before have so many of the most important countries in the world printed so much money and left base rates at near zero for so long. Also never before has the largest economy in the world tried to start a slow process of reversing said extraordinary policy. So there is no road map for this journey, only educated (hopefully) predictions."
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/02/2015 - 07:34
  • Markets on edge as policymakers flex muscles (Reuters)
  • European shares recover from rough ride (Reuters)
  • For Stock Markets, the Moment When Humans Matter (WSJ)
  • Puerto Rico's PREPA, bondholders have framework for deal (Reuters)
  • Hundreds of migrants protest at Budapest station, want to go to Germany (Reuters)
  • New Whale Seen Moving Tokyo Markets (BBG)
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Since today was the last day of trading for Chinese stocks this week ahead of the 4-day extended September 3 military parade holiday to mark the 70th anniversary of the allied victory over Japan, and since Chinese stocks opened to yet another early trading rout coupled with the PBOC's biggest Yuan strengthening since 2010 as we observed earlier, there was only one thing that was certain: massive intervention by the Chinese "National Team" to get stocks as close to green as possible. Sure enough they tried, and tried so hard the "hulk's" green color almost came through in the last hour of trading and yet, despite the symbolic importance of having a green close at least one day this week ahead of China's victory over a World War II foe, Beijing was unable to defeat the market even once in the latest week which will hardly bode well for Chinese stocks come next week.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH

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NEWS IN SPANISH

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Mentiras  y Medios   El terrorismo mediático. Aram Aharonian
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martes, 1 de septiembre de 2015

SEP 1 SIT EC y POL

SEP 1 SIT EC y POL

KIEV DIVISION: NEO-NAZIS AGAINST POROCHENKO.
ANOTHER FAILURE of US FOREIGN POLICY:  “cria cuervos y te sacaran los ojos”

DEATH TOLL FROM RIOTS OUTSIDE UKRAINE PARLIAMENT REACHES 3
The death toll from Monday’s riots outside Ukraine’s parliament in Kiev rose to three after another serviceman died from injuries suffered in a grenade blast, TASS reported. The soldier sustained serious fragmentation wounds during the explosion, the National Guard said on Tuesday. For almost 24 hours, the young man was in a coma, it said. Two National Guard members died on Monday and on Tuesday. Protesters clashed with police and National Guard troops on Monday after MPs initially backed constitutional amendments supposed to give greater powers to Donbass.
Source : http://www.rt.com/news/line/  12:04 GMT
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ZERO HEDGE


"The current secular shift in reserve manager behavior represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. The path to “normalization” will likely remain slow and fraught with difficulty."
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The Myth Of A Russian 'Threat'. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/01/2015

Not a week goes by without the Pentagon carping about an ominous Russian "threat". The Pentagon’s rhetorical games also serve to mask a real high-stakes process; essentially an energy war – centering on the control of oil, natural gas and mineral resources of Russia and Central Asia. Will this wealth be controlled by oligarch front men “supervised” by their masters in New York and London, or by Russia and its Central Asian partners? Thus the relentless propaganda war.
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Think about it. We are currently watching global stock markets gyrate toward breakdown trying to anticipate the whims of a cloistered professor who never launched a business, never met a payroll, never shipped a product, and never won an election, yet has been empowered to determine the price of money. What’s even stranger is that people consider this normal. Ask yourself: Why do we wait on pins and needles for Janet Yellen to set interest rates yet laugh at the idea that kings once set the “just price” for a loaf of bread?
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[ a la mafia de especuladores chinos les partieron la madre, dicen los quates de Mx ]

"One manager at a major fund - part of the 'national team' of investors and brokerages charged with buying stocks to revive prices … also an executive at a large fund, was recently summoned for a meeting with regulators, along with all other mutual funds that had engaged in short-selling activity. 'If I don't come back, look after my wife', handing the manager his home telephone number."
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[ QT INSTEAD OF QE = tight up, tight up..nos estamos ahorcando .. Vamos bien! .. We are practicing American hijad. …  If the West need help  from China-RU, they will be happy to do so, all RU-CHI  have to do is regionalizing its trade. .. Moraleja:  A la mona, por mas que la vistan de seda, mona queda ]

Last week, the world was introduced to what Deutsche Bank has branded "quantitative tightening" or, in layman’s terms, "reverse QE." We - as well as Citi and SocGen - have endeavored to speculate on what hundreds of billions (if not trillions) in EM FX reserve liquidation may mean for UST yields, but if you’re looking for other ways to trade QT, Deutsche Bank has an idea. READ: It's The Fed, Stupid; Why Kuroda And Draghi Are No Match For Quantitative Tightening  [they don’t love this type of suicide ]

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But but but... US economy is solid... curve will steepen... NIM... banks... bullish... buy... except that the market's perception of the credit risk in US financials is at 19-month wides. With counterparty risk rising, is it any wonder financial stocks are crashing?
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Is September 2015 going to be one of the most important months in modern American history?

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US Manufacturing Plunges To 2-Year Lows As New Orders, Employment Tumble. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/01/2015

As Markit notes, "U.S. manufacturing sector continues to struggle under the weight of the strong dollar and heightened global economic uncertainty." On the heels of Milwaukee and Dallas Fed weakness, ISM Manufacturing printed a disastrous 51.1 (vs 52.5 expectations) - the lowest since May 2013. Employment tumbled, as did New Export ordedrs, but unadjusted New Orders plunged to its lowest since 2013, which is a problem given the massive inventory builds that have saved the world in the last few months.
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*NYSE AND NYSE MKT CASH EQUITIES MARKETS WILL INVOKE RULE 48
US equity futures markets have just pushed to fresh overnight lows, with the last leg down seemingly triggered by the CAD recession print. Let's hope Cramer and Cook have another email up their sleeves as weakness in AAPL is notable - down 2.75% in the pre-market. Lastly, we noted US equities are rapidly catching back down to the XIV-implied lows as the last few days bounce evaporates.
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It appears low oil prices are not awesome for everyone. For the second quarter in a row, Canadian GDP dropped (-0.5%) pushing America's northern neighbor back into recession. What is ironic is that this was better than the 1% drop that was expected and so CAD is strengthening.
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… earlier in August, the real stunner came not from China but from South Korea, which last night reported an unprecedented 14.7% collapse in exports, far worse than the -5.9% consensus estimate, and more than 4 times worse than July's 3.4%. The number is critical because not only do exports account for about half of South Korea's GDP but because it also happens to be the first major exporting country to report monthly trade data. That makes it the perfect barometer of global trade flows, or as the case may be, the canary in the global trade coalmine. It also confirms what we reported just one week ago when we said that "Global Trade Is In Freefall."
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… to help ease pressure on the yuan" and by extension, on the PBoC’s rapidly depleting FX reserves. To that end, starting October 15 banks will have to hold the equivalent of 20% of clients' FX forward positions with the PBoC, where the money will sit, frozen, for a year, at 0% interest.
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/01/2015 - 07:34
  • Charting the Market: New Month, Same China (BBG)
  • China jitters send stocks tumbling (Reuters)
  • Oil falls on weak China factory data (Reuters)
  • Euro zone factory growth eases in August despite modest price rises (Reuters)
  • Euro-Area Joblessness Falls to Lowest Level Since Early 2012 (BBG)
  • Clinton friend advised on U.S. politics, foreign policy (Reuters)
  • Korea exports slump as Asia's woes deepen (Reuters)
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Just like the last time when Chinese flash PMI data came out at the lowest level since the financial crisis, so overnight when both the official Chinese manufacturing and service PMI data, as well as the Caixin final PMI,s confirmed China's economy has not only ground to a halt but is now contracting with the official manufacturing data the lowest in 3 years and the first contraction in 6 months, stocks around the globe tumbled on concerns another major devaluation round by the PBOC is just around the corner with the drop led by the Shanghai Composite which plunged as much as 4% before, the cavalry arrived and bought every piece of SSE 50 index of China's biggest companies  it could find, and in a rerun of yestterday sent it to a green close, with the SHCOMP closing just -1.23% in the red. So much for the "no interventions" myth. We wonder which journalist will take the blame for today's rout.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE

“IT IS THE 1ST RESPONSIBILITY OF EVERY CITIZEN TO QUESTION AUTHORITY” Benjamin Franklin
Too many people in the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex on both sides of the aisle are becoming rich and powerful by feeding off America’s self-referencing politics of unilateralism, fear, and perpetual war.
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President Santos’ two-faced policies mirror those of the Obama regime. While Obama pursues negotiation with Iran, he wages proxy wars against Iran’s allies in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
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The US no longer has a judiciary. This former branch of government has transitioned into an enabler of executive branch fascism.
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The Great Unraveling.  By Chris Hedges
Democracy, especially in the United States, is a farce, vomiting up right-wing demagogues such as Donald Trump
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Why do prominent US journalists routinely fail to question other deep events that shape America’s tragic history
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This is not a story that the mainstream press is happy to popularize
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