MAY 16 2021 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
THE FED IS GOING TO MAKE A MISTAKE
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
...we suspect this rally will be pretty short-lived.
Well, that didn’t work out as planned. Last week, we said:
“Notably, the ‘money flow buy signal’ seemed to cross; however, we need some follow-through action on Monday to confirm. As shown, the uptick in money flows did allow us to add some exposure to portfolios in holdings we had taken profits in with the previous ‘sell’ signal.”
See Chart
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Chart1-051321-1024x851.png?itok=KvojtwEg
Well, that follow-through failed to occur. Not only did the “buy signal” not trigger, but the market also broke down through the previous consolidation range. As I said, it did not work out as planned. The last exposure we took on is now pressuring the portfolio momentarily, but we should benefit from the turn if we are correct.
With markets deeply oversold on a short-term basis, with signals at levels that generally precede short-term rallies, the rally on Thursday and Friday was not unexpected. Notably, the S&P 500 did hold support at the 50-dma and rallied back into the previous trading range. Furthermore, institutional investors have cut their exposures by 50% in just two weeks, primarily big tech, which provides fuel for a rally.
See Chart:
NAAIM vs S&P 500 Index
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image_2021-05-15_072742.png?itok=YolzOkBD
An Inflation Primer
As stated above, we expect inflation to subside later this year, along with economic growth.
As such, we continue to focus on our risk management accordingly for now. If we are correct in our assessment about the roll-off effect of stimulus and liquidity, we could well see bonds outperform stocks in 2022. We are watching very closely as we currently hold minimal duration in our fixed-income portfolios. If we begin to see the very negative sentiment on bonds reverse, as inflationary pressures subside, we could well see an excellent buying opportunity.
See Chart:
US Treasuries % Net Long
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Treasuries-Net-Long.jpg?itok=yUdGDt33
Continue reading & see more charts at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-going-make-mistake
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MORGAN STANLEY: THIS IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE RED-HOT GLOBAL RECOVERY
By Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics
The biggest threat to this cycle is an overshoot in US core PCE inflation beyond the Fed’s implicit 2.5%Y threshold – a serious concern, in my view, which could emerge from mid-2022 onwards
A year ago, when the global economy was in the depths of the Great Covid-19 Recession, we argued for a V-shaped recovery and the return of inflation. 12 months on, deep scepticism has given way to broad agreement.
The debate now is whether the strong recovery and pick-up in inflation were just a spurt driven by policy support and reopening. If so, global growth could slow as it did in 2012 when policy-makers withdrew fiscal and monetary policy support. The resulting weak growth and lowflation environment raised fears of secular stagnation.
Our three-factor framework has shaped how we have been thinking about this cycle.
1. First, COVID-19 was an exogenous shock, unlike the Great Financial Crisis, which resulted from excessive private sector leveraging.
2. Second, in the absence of moral hazard issues, policy-makers responded actively and aggressively.
3. Third, as the declining share of wages in GDP and rising income inequality came to the fore, an inclusive growth environment emerged as a goal of both monetary and fiscal policy. The bias will be to err on the side of keeping policies expansionary.
Against this policy backdrop, we foresee a sustained recovery.
So far, the recovery has been led by a sharp rebound in consumption and an initial pick-up in capex. The ongoing recovery in personal incomes and the elevated excess saving stock suggest that consumption growth will be sustained. In the next leg, we believe that the strong recovery in aggregate demand will drive a red-hot capex cycle. Global investment will rise to 121% of pre-recession levels by end-2022, with US investment at 116% of pre-recession levels by the end of next year, a threshold that took 40 quarters to reach in the last cycle.
See Chart:
Indeed, if low growth and lowflation characterised the macro environment post-2010, this is emerging as an environment of high growth and higher inflation, diminishing the risk of secular stagnation.
The pandemic has accelerated the economic restructuring process, which is lifting the natural rate of unemployment.
What does the macro backdrop means for markets? Strong economic tailwinds create both risks and opportunities. Our chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets sees higher inflation and richer valuations complicating the strong growth environment. A mid-cycle market leads our cross-asset strategists to recommend reducing exposure to credit and equities, and they are reducing their underweight in cash, a move supported by cycle-adjusted risk premiums.
See Chart:
Mid Cycle Shifts
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/mid%20cycle%20shifts_1.jpg?itok=-5Tkuvgd
In the US, our equity strategists are tactically cautious on risk. However, after the correction has played out in the near term, they see a bull market resuming with better breadth and a reflationary tilt. They are overweight sectors most levered to reflation on a longer-term view (financials, materials and industrials) while favoring reasonably priced growth (healthcare) over more expensive growth (technology). In macro markets, stronger growth but ample liquidity should keep the rise in yields near forward rates, while we see USD modestly higher in a narrow range. Commodities should overshoot fair value
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-biggest-threat-red-hot-global-recovery
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THIS IS NOT THE INFLATION YOU ARE LOOKING FOR, MOVE ALONG
"The April CPI report was a huge upside surprise, but one of little lasting significance. The spike was driven by a mix of temporary shortages, supply-chain disruptions, and reopening rebounds in travel prices."
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HEDGE FUND CIO: "TRADING IS TRULY AN AWFUL PURSUIT"
“you should generally hope for news that’s just bad enough to maintain the wall of worry, without being fatal. It’s only after the news becomes universally good, volatility collapses, and leveraged carry traders start
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"EVER HEARD OF PAYPAL?": ELON MUSK HAS EPIC MELTDOWN ARGUING WITH BITCOIN FANATICS
This set off the coining community, with Dogecoin creator @BillM2K asking of Musk's comment: "Do you see what being a toxic idiot does to your coin and community?"
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
DRUCKENMILLER: "THERE'S BEEN NO GREATER ENGINE OF INEQUALITY THAN THE FED"
...the artificial enrichment of the few by a "government created agency" is not in The Fed’s mandate... ...it is destructive to society.
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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SYSTEM WILL NO LONGER CONSIDER SAT AND ACT SCORES FOR ADMISSIONS
...result of a legal settlement of a lawsuit brought by groups that claimed that the traditional SAT and ACT tests are racist..
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Violence spread by neoliberal chaos & State crisis
48 SHOT, INCLUDING 2 POLICE OFFICERS IN ANOTHER OUT OF CONTROL CHICAGO WEEKEND
Tragically this included a 2-year old girl wounded during a drive-by...
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NEW YORK'S PRIDE MARCH BANS POLICE OFFICERS FROM MARCHING
The Gay Officers Action League denounced the decision on Friday night. In addition, the NYPD is being asked to remain at least a block away from all events to ensure a safe environment for participants.
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SPUTNIK : https://sputniknews.com/
- ISR Wants to 'Restore Deterrence' and 'Levy Heavy Price' on Hamas, Netanyahu Says
- Colombia’s Workers’ Union Says Major Demonstration to Take Place Wednesday
- Nord Stream 2 Could Come Up During Blinken-Lavrov Talks
- IF J Urges UN Security Council to Ensure Safety of Journalists in Gaza Strip
- Pro-Palestinian Demonstrators Gather at UN Headquarters in New York
- US Space Force Col Fired After Attacking Pentagon’s Inclusion Policies as ‘Marxism’
- Iran Reveals Simorgh, Nation's First Self-Develop Supercomputer
- Russia Could Go Beyond Planned Series of 10 Borei-Class Nuclear-Powered Subs
- People Across West Bank Take to Rooftops to Chant in Support of PALs Struggle
- Muslim States Blast Normalization Dealmakers at Summit Condemning Israel
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MAY 16- 2021 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
Mund : APRENDER LAS LECCIONES DEL PLANETA Jonathan Foley
España: Banco de España, la instit que más nos cuesta a españoles
Chile: Maturana y un nuevo convivir para Chile Andrés Kogan
Chile: “Cuando hay mucha abstención, eso ayuda a la derecha” T H
MX: EL MAGISTERIO: UN SUJETO REVOLUCIONARIO Cristóbal León
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Chile elección constitu: independientes obtienen un 35,68 % de votos https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/392306-eleccion-constituyente-chile-independientes
Israel con un "ladrón armado" que "aterroriza" a su pueblo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/392303-canciller-palestino-israel-ladron-armado
Variante india de CV-19 puede propagarse como "un incendio forestal" en no vacunad https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/392291-secretario-salud-britanico-variante-india-incendio-forestal
Piñera-Chile: "No sintonizando adecuadamente con las demandas de la ciudadanía" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/392308-sebastian-pinera-sintonizando-adecuadamente-demandas
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Israel Charged with War Crimes and Genocide. Complete 2013 Judgment of the Kuala Lumpur Tribunal By Kuala Lumpur War
- Israel Is Deliberately Obliterating Media Buildings in Gaza to Cover Up the War Crimes that Will Follow By Eva Bartlett,
- Middle East and “Greater Israel”: There Will be War By T Alexander
- Covid Vaccine: The Same Pattern Everywhere? By Mike Whitney
- How the Rich Hide Their Wealth: Tax Havens and Capital Flight By RD
- Criminalization of War: Gaza By Prof Michel Chossudovsky
- We Must Awaken from “Corona Coma”, Reject “Great Reset” By JD
- Pfizer’s Crim Record. Largest Medical “Fraudulent Marketing” US-d-J
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
What kind of social, economic and political order or orders are most conducive to the well-being of the people living under them? Or what does well-being even mean in this day and age? To discuss this, Oksana is joined by Alfredo Saad-Filho, professor of political economy and international development at King’s College London
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