AUG 29 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"THIS MIGHT BE THE WEIRDEST MARKET I’VE EVER SEEN" - CHARTING THE MARKET'S DESCENT INTO INSANITY
...LIKE some combustible combo of musical chairs, Russian roulette, and five finger fillet.
….
YES: weirdest neoliberal market to feed the gluttony of few US billionaires. Be honest with yourself & call red to what is red. Then read this DATA:
Apple's market cap is now 98% of the entire Russell 2000. A few more trading days, and one company will be more valuable than all small public companies in the US combined.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AAPL%20vs%20Russell.jpg?itok=Od8Wwm4C
We got a higher stock price, more call purchases and so on (as described recently in "How To Hedge An Apple "Blow-Off Top" Melt Up").
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AAPL%20put%20call%20skew%202_0.jpg?itok=f5wayf6U
In other words, for the first time ever, the average daily value of options traded exceeded shares with July single stock options volumes tracking 114% of shares volumes. This trend has only accelerated since.
See Charts:
1-Single stock options volumes are now bigger than shares volume for first time
2-Single stock option ADV has increased 129% YTD and 35% MoM
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/option%20trading%20volumes_0.jpg?itok=10CkYPIv
This move was largely driven by individual, or retail investors, whose activity in both the top 50 and the top 500 US names has continued a steady climb over the past two years with a larger recent increase in the proportion of volume among the top 50
See Chart:
As a result, single stock options with maturities less than 2 weeks now comprise 75% of all maturities, up from their average in the 55-60% area. And in recent weeks, investors have further increased focus on trading calls with volumes of short dated call options having increased rapidly relative to puts.
See Charts:
As the author himself summarizes, it's "like some combustible combo of musical chairs, Russian roulette, and five finger fillet" and asks rhetorically, "how many traders can dance upon the head of a pin?"
See Chart:
MASSIVE SURGE IN RISK TRADING
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/call%20put%20buys.png?itok=PrIuUweL
CONTINUE READING & SEE MORE CHARTS AT:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/charting-markets-descent-sheer-insanity
----
----
HOW EXTREMES BECOME MORE EXTREME, TRIGGERING COLLAPSE
The extremes are not visible to the vast majority of participants, and so they are exposed to high levels of risk they don't see or understand...
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
In the realm of economics and markets, our perceptions of extremes are backed up with data: based on the ratio of stock valuations to GDP and corporate sales (not profits, because profits are easily gamed) to GDP, the stock market has never been as over-valued as it is today.
The rally in global stocks off the March lows is the steepest such rally ever. The unemployment rate is equally extreme, as is the Federal Reserve's money-printing: $3 trillion has been created out of thin air since February 26 as the Fed's balance sheet rose from $4 trillion to $7 trillion.
Setting aside the specifics, can we discern systemic dynamics that could make extremes become more extreme? .. Feedback loops are one such dynamic.
Somewhat counter-intuitively, when feedback arises to moderate the intensity of a trend, that's negative feedback. When feedback intensifies the trend, it's positive feedback.
Why is this counter-intuitive? If a bad trend is moderated by negative feedback, that's good (positive). If a bad trend gathers momentum due to positive feedback, that's bad (negative).
Positive feedback leads to runaway systems, i.e. run to failure where the system accelerates until it collapses.
If the system is isolated, then the damage is contained. But if the system is interconnected with others, then its failure could trigger the collapse of other systems, either as a direct (first-order) effect or as an indirect (second-order) effect.
In other words, in highly inter-connected systems, one failure can trigger a domino effect that can become non-linear once second-order effects manifest.
Positive feedback leads to runaway systems, i.e. run to failure where the system accelerates until it collapses.
If the system is isolated, then the damage is contained. But if the system is interconnected with others, then its failure could trigger the collapse of other systems, either as a direct (first-order) effect or as an indirect (second-order) effect.
In other words, in highly inter-connected systems, one failure can trigger a domino effect that can become non-linear once second-order effects manifest.
There is another class of dynamics I call hidden extremes because the long-term trend appears benign even as it reaches breaking points with the potential to collapse the system.
I call this the Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown: costs ratchet higher effortlessly, but reducing costs encounters extreme resistance.
SEE CHART
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/rising-wedge%20%283%29.gif?itok=xJiMVMyT
In other words, a consequential percentage of small businesses were at their extreme limit in the rising wedge even before the pandemic. Now the wedge has broken as their revenues falling by even a modest percentage is enough to trigger losses they cannot sustain.
Another dynamic that can make extremes even more extreme is the Pareto Distribution, a.k.a. the 80/20 Rule: the vital 20% wields outsized influence over the 80%, and the 20% of the 20% (4%) exerts outsized influence over 80% of the 80% (64%).
Again, uncertainty becomes a self-reinforcing feedback that disrupts the economy and the social order, because people make different decisions when they lack certainty in outcomes and the future.
In other words, the actual crime rate need not increase by much to trigger a complete recalculation of risk and uncertainty that could then trigger a mass exodus from city centers by small businesses and the top 20% of households with the most to lose and the most mobility.
Once these sectors abandon the city, the economy and social order collapse to levels that no one thought possible.
In my analysis, costs for small businesses and urban residents were already at extremes that were hidden or accepted as "normal." What few understood was how pushing costs into the top of the rising wedge made the entire system vulnerable to non-linear breakdown. This breakdown is what I see unfolding in the economy and the social order.
The financial system is extremely vulnerable to disruption and collapse for the same reasons: the extremes are not visible to the vast majority of participants, and so they are exposed to high levels of risk they don't see or understand.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-extremes-become-more-extreme-triggering-collapse
----
----
These debates are so HOT .. that may FROZE some people
84% OF CFOS SAY STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED
... even as they unleash another flood of stock buybacks.
It's not just Wall Street fund managers who, as the latest BofA fund manager survey revealed, view stocks (along with bonds and gold) to be the most overvalued on record.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/equal%20weighted_1.jpg?itok=JnxE5RgO
Corporate finance chiefs - those whose actions ultimately set the price of their public equity - agree, and in the latest quarterly survey conducted by Deloitte LLP, about 84% of CFOs said equities are too expensive, the second-highest level in the decade since the accounting and consulting firm began collecting the data. Only 2% of respondents said U.S. stocks look cheap (probably the CFOs of the gigacaps who continue to repurchase their stock hand over fist).
SEE CHART:
Equity Market Valuations
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/CFO%20valuations.jpg?itok=P0kaLXqh
Some 155 CFOs across North America, most of whom work at companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue, participated in the survey which spanned Aug. 3 to Aug. 7. Since then, the S&P 500 is up another 3.8%.
Of course, the CFOs are spot on, because at 27 times forward earnings, the S&P 500’s price-earnings ratio is just fractions below its all time high.
SEE CHART:
S&P Fwd PE Multiple
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fed%20PE%20multiple_0.jpg?itok=UnX3B5K0
As Bloomberg notes, "the data provide further insight into the views of corporate management, particularly the finance departments responsible for capital expenditures."
However, only 43% said they expect better economic conditions in a year - down 15 percentage points.
Yet just as the BofA Fund Manager survey reveals the sheer force of FOMO across Wall Street, where despite accepting a market that has never been more overvalued, most are rushing back into the stock market and the majority have recently changed their mind from "it's a bear market rally" to "it's a bull market"...
SEE CHART:
FMS Investors believe we are in a bull market
.. we wonder just what the point of the CFO survey is: after all, as we laid out recently there has been a tidal wave of companies who in recent weeks have announced plans to resume stock buybacks, and certainly favor buybacks over dividends due to the immediate upside impact they have on the stock price and the resulting favorable impact on equity-linked comp plans.
SEE CHART:
Companies favor buybacks over dividens
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/buybacks%20over%20dividends_1.jpg?itok=BcoiARlZ
One thing is clear: if the vast majority of CFOs thought stocks were overvalued, they would be selling equity not buying stock back. Then again, with their own compensation on the line, and with relentless demand for bonds from both investors and the Fed, why not sell some bonds and use the proceeds to buy back some more stock, assuring even more equity levitation and also assuring that next month even more CFOs will find stocks to be overvalued.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/84-cfos-say-stocks-are-overvalued
----
----
Two short news + my comment:
1-
HERE'S WHY WARREN BUFFETT BAILED ON BANKS & BOUGHT GOLD IN ONE SIMPLE CHART
"If the ratio approaches 200% -- as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 -- you are playing with fire..."
According to Buffett's U.S. stocks are more highly valued now relative to economic output than they were even during the dotcom bubble, raising questions about the sustainability of the recent rally.
The combined market capitalization of the universe of U.S. stocks as captured by the Wilshire 5000 Index totaled $36.8 trillion as of Wednesday’s close. That amounts to 190% of the $19.4 trillion value of U.S. gross domestic product as of the second quarter.
SEE CHART:
The Buffett Indicator: US Market Cap (Wilshire 5000) /US GDP (in %)
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmDB9.jpg?itok=DXITFNcX
….
So America was and is fiscally f**ked for creating a fake economy with stocks that have never, ever, been this expensive. It seems a good reasons for WB to buy gold.. just as Warren's dear-old-dad warned in 1948! That is why he said:
"I warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold, although they may outwardly seemingly favor it. Unless you are willing to surrender your children and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery, then this cause demands your support. FOR IF HUMAN LIBERTY IS TO SURVIVE IN AMERICA, WE MUST WIN THE BATTLE TO RESTORE HONEST MONEY."
….
[So America is fiscally f**ked because of duopoly Syst (Dems + Reps) we have. You can imagine what FDR would’ve done with this guy WB, his friend Trump & their accomplice Biden, beside confiscation for tax evasion.. Jailed, of/c ]
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-why-warren-buffett-bailed-banks-bought-gold-one-simple-chart
----
----
2-
Ignore Powell's happy talk. The Fed is desperate and merely playing for time
Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again,
but expecting different results.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced on Thursday that the Fed will now shift its focus from hitting inflation targets and instead prioritize closing “unemployment short falls”.
Essentially, the Fed is now tripling-down on the same failed policies that have created today’s zombie economy and the worst economic inequality in our nation’s history.
SEE CHART:
The Richest 5% of Americans Own two-thirds of the Wealth
Perhaps the folks at the Fed are smarter than we think, and there’s actually a grand plan they’re pursuing that’s going to work out to society’s benefit?
Sadly no, reveals this week’s expert guest, Danielle DiMartino-Booth.
LISTEN TAPE: https://youtu.be/2LiyBP0TKgk
....
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-big-lie
----
----
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
TRUMP GAINS IN POST-CONVENTION POLL AS BIDEN SUPPORT SLIPS
"President Donald Trump needed a convention bounce — and he got one."
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/trump%20biden%20rcp.png?itok=TjCFK9qd
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-gains-post-convention-poll-biden-support-slips
====
Four years ago Moore was laughed at by Liberals when he was the 'lone voice' that accurately predicted 2016 "shock"...
====
SCHIFF, PELOSI 'MANIPULATED' ELECTION BRIEFINGS FOR WRITTEN UPDATES
Grenell calls it "very good reform..."
====
Will Hillary & The Dems Get The Civil War They Are Trying To Provoke?
The Dems won’t get their civil war – but they will suffer the blowback for their attempts to destroy the United States...
====
Falsification on pandemic data
Investigators found that of the 658 cases, just 86 listed "Covid-19 pneumonia" without contributing causes as the reason for death...
====
NPR CLAIMS THAT CALLING A RIOT A "RIOT" IS RACIST
...because crowd control measures were also used in the 60s during the civil rights era, this means that using them today is racist..
====
CALIFORNIA SET TO BECOME 1ST STATE TO PASS 700K COVID-19 CASES: LIVE UPDATES
The Sun Belt saw broadly stable numbers for cases, deaths and hospitalizations on Friday, as Texas reported 4,732 new cases, or +0.8%, to 606,530, which is less than the 0.9% average increase over the previous week. Deaths climbed by 154 to 12,420.
California reported 4,981 new virus cases, the lowest daily count since Aug. 4, a level that was below the 14-day average of 5,725. There have been 693,839 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the state, while deaths climbed by 144 to 12,834.
Australia reports smallest number of new cases since early July....
====
IF can’t prove, why you arrested?. Xenophobic attitude? Hillary wasn’t=del phone data
UCLA RESEARCHER ARRESTED, CHARGED WITH DESTROYING EVIDENCE IN CHINA ESPIONAGE PROBE
...another one!
….
Another what?.. another xenophobic attitude? Then you want CH help on trade
====
VIDEO EVIDENCE PROVES KENOSHA SHOOTINGS WERE "ACTS OF SELF-DEFENSE"
"Kyle Rittenhouse acted in self-defense.
Murder charges are factually unsupportable."
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
GOOD NEWS
US COURT APPROVES SALE OF VENEZUELA-BOUND GASOLINE FROM SEIZED SHIP
Bad part: Owner forced to sell for less than half its current market value
====
Is there WAR intention behind this Artificial Intelligence Project?
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO INVEST $1 BILLION IN QUANTUM COMPUTING, AI
Institutes crafting the 'industries of the future' get billion-dollar boost...
The technology chief said that such technologies were currently being used to fight the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus.
“The U.S. is using every tool at its disposal to defeat the novel coronavirus, including artificial intelligence,” Kratsios wrote in an Op-Ed published in the Wall Street Journal on May 27.
However, AI technology is not only being used to combat disease, he cautioned
“At the same time, AI is being twisted by authoritarian regimes to violate rights. The Chinese Communist Party is reportedly using AI to uncover and punish those who criticize the regime’s pandemic response and to institute a type of coronavirus social-credit score - assigning people color codes to determine who is free to go out and who will be forced into quarantine.”
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/trump-administration-invest-1-billion-quantum-computing-ai
----
----
How to save Saudi terrorism?
UAE AND ISRAEL PLAN TO CREATE INTELLIGENCE BASES ON YEMEN’S SOCOTRA ISLAND
Israel and the United Arab Emirates are going to create a military intelligence-gathering infrastructure on Yemen’s Socotra Island, according to Arab and French sources.
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Worshippers Gather in Tehran for Annual Ashura Rituals Amid Coronavirus Restrictions Wihout breaking dogmas , they pray against WW3
- Messi Allegedly Set to Skip Corona Testing at Barca Amid Claims PSG, Man City Interested in Transfer
- Situation in Portland, Oregon, Where One Man Was Killed Amid Rival Protests
- German Police Push Back ‘Anti-Corona’ Protest as They Attempt to Storm Parliam
- Watch RU Naval Aviat of 4 Fleets Perform Simultan Flights Amid Ocean Shiled Drills
- 2020 Race, CV & BLM Protest: This is Time of Great Unease for US Jewish Commun
- Police Launch Probe as One Person Shot Dead in Downt Portland Amid Rival Prot
- Number of COVID-19 Cases Surpasses 25 Mln Worldwide
- Protesters Topple Statue of Canadian First PM in Montreal
- Mail-In Voting Fraud 'Is No Myth', Election Rigger Says
- Trump Urges the Arrest of 'Thugs' Who 'Attacked' Rand Paul, Others After RNC
- Trump to Go to Kenosha on Tuesday Amid Protests
- Jacob Blake to Get Court Hearing, Will Plead Not Guilty to 3 Charges
- Briefings to Congress on Possible 'Election Interference'
- N Y Police Looking For Driver Who Assault Two Unarmed Traffic Offic in the Bronx
- Trump to Pardon 'Truth-Teller' Julian Assange, Says It Will Help His Re-Election
====
====
THE REST FOR TOMMORROW
