jueves, 29 de septiembre de 2016

RAZONES POR LAS QUE LOS PRECIOS DEL PETRÓLEO SEGUIRÁN BAJANDO



Reasons why oil prices will go down


Un grupo de analistas del grupo de banca de inversión Goldman Sachs prevé una tendencia a la baja en los precios del crudo incluso si el congelamiento de los volúmenes de producción es un éxito.

Los especuladores bursátiles y los empresarios vinculados a las materias primas han seguido con atención el XV Foro Energético Internacional celebrado en Argelia desde el 26 al 28 de septiembre con la esperanza de ver algún indicio de una posible acción conjunta de los principales países productores para elevar los precios de crudo. Y esta expectativa quedó justificada cuando la Organización de los Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) anunció un acuerdo con Rusia que establece un límite de producción en 32,5 millones de barriles diarios.

Un movimiento en las bolsas anticipó esta decisión el lunes, cuando los precios subieron más del 3% en comparación con la semana pasada. Sin embargo, los escépticos no ocultaban sus pronósticos a la baja en el cuatro trimestre y el grupo financiero Goldman Sachs compartió esta tendencia. Sus analistas redujeron el martes la estimación del precio para el cuarto trimestre a 43 dólares por barril desde los 50 dólares establecidos.

Sus previsiones estaban basadas en el escepticismo respecto al acuerdo de la OPEP con Rusia, cree la editora Sarah Sands del portal analítico Market Realist. Cuando este acuerdo se hizo realidad este miércoles, el argumento perdió su vigencia, aunque las restricciones anunciadas solo deben entrar en vigor en noviembre próximo. Mientras tanto, un informe difundido por Goldman Sachs la semana pasada subrayó otra de las causas de los bajos precios y del gran potencial de caída.

El Factor más importante que el congelamiento de la producción, es el congelamiento de la guerra

A medida que se atenúen los conflictos internos en Libia, Irak y Nigeria, el volumen de crudo en los mercados crecerá. En opinión de los analistas, una mejora en las relaciones entre las partes en conflicto en las regiones donde la extracción o el transporte de crudo se vieron afectados "sería un factor más importante para los precios del petróleo que el congelamiento de la producción por parte de los países de la OPEP".

El equipo de expertos encabezado por Damien Courvalin llegó a predecir incluso que estos tres países "llevarán los volúmenes de extracción a índices récord", algo que revertirá a la baja cualquier subida a corto plazo que se registre. Juntos sumarían al menos 100.000 barriles al día al volumen actual de suministros mundiales.

Nuevos yacimientos y pozos en distintas regiones del mundo
No en vano, Libia reanudó la semana pasada la exportación de crudo desde uno de los puertos petroleros del país que habían permanecido cerrados varios años. Además de "aumentos sorpresa" como este, los expertos de Goldman Sachs incluyeron en un comunicado analítico este martes, cuyos elementos clave cita el canal CNBC, un factor más: la puesta en servicio de nuevos yacimientos y pozos en distintas regiones del mundo. Esta semana, afirman, hay más detalles sobre los proyectos que se pondrán en marcha antes de que acabe el fin de año.

"Eso nos hace esperar un excedente mundial de 400.000 barriles al día en el cuarto trimestre frente a los 300.000 barriles diarios que esperábamos", sintetizan estos expertos estadounidenses.
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CLOUDS ANNOUNCING STORMS



CLOUDS ANNOUNCING STORMS
in the international economic context

Hugo Adan. Sept 29-16

On Monday oil prices went up 3% in relation to prices the week before. It is expected that this “trend-up” will continue until Nov when the deal between RU-OPEC (including Iran & Saudis. Saudis agree to reduce their production to 500,000 barrels a day –around 50% the current rate). Why they did it?.. is unclear yet.  The FACT is that all other OPEC members agree to limit their oil production to 32,5 million of barrels per day.

The uncertainty regarding Saudis policy created a big cloud in the sky: If oil prices go up too much after Nov .. commodity prices will go too.. and the whole inflation-riddle will come back.

How to explain Saudis policy of reducing & setting limits to their  oil production?. If this is related to politics –as stated yesterday by some analysts (meaning: Saudis’ retaliation to our nation right to sue them). If this is the case, then they will retract as the dynamic of politics go fine among NATO allies. If this happens the world will confront again the Saudis’ economic terrorism. ..

In such a case, some political analyst wonder why no to take the Saudi Royalty out of the geo-political table once and for all, they don’t need more money. Why no to create something similar to a “state papacy” to administer their oil without its royalty. So, their oil could be transferred to either the UNSC and/or special committee of developed countries…

OR  to transferred the control of Saudi oil to OPEC, but without Saudi's royalty.  Either one will be used to pay a “fair price” for Saudis’ war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in the US Set 11-01 act of terrorism and their terrorism in Yemen, etc.. and to support the victims of ISIS-al Nustra terrorism supported by the Saudis in the ME.

The FACT is that Saudi-royalty is causing too much economic and political trouble world-wide. This is the perfect time to take them out of the geo-political table, and confiscate their riches  and place them in jail, concluded one analyst.  

However, there is a chance that prices stabilize relatively up, but not too much,  as it was expected by RU-OPEC deal to limit extraction to 32,5 millin per day (agreement that included Saudis and Iran, and benefit all OPEC small producers like VEN, BRA, Nigeria and others in OPEC).

But..  if the Saudis retract from this deal and decide not to limit their over-production, then we will have prices down again.. a reality nothing pleasant to US investor in oil & gas

This trend will coincide with speculators called “Investors”  of the group Golman Sachs who are “predicting” another fall of prices -not derived from political factors- but for “economic” ones. 

Check this other news too


Goldman has done it again. Two days after the central banker-incubator cut its year end price target from $50 to $43, and followed the next day by a report in which it said that not even an OPEC deal would stop oil going lower, overnight the same analyst said that the OPEC agreement will "likely provide support to prices up, at least in the short term" and added that the announced production quota should boost the price of oil by $7/bbl - $10/bbl.
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SOVEREING IMMUNITY and War crimes & Crimes agst Humanity



SOVEREING IMMUNITY and War crimes & Crimes agst Humanity

Hugo Adan. Set 29-16

Our Senate and the House did the right thing in voting overwhelmingly
to override Presid Obama’s veto of a bill letting the victims of the 9/11
to sue Saudi Arabia. Now President Obama said the Senate & the House
 made a big mistake: that we are violating the principle of “sovereign
immunity”.

Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said that this could be "devastating"
for the US military. The Pentagon chief said also that this posed risks
for US forces abroad.  

The FACT is that soldiers & the military do not make foreign policies 
and blaming the mailman for a letter content is totally unfair and 
ridiculous, to say the less. 

If there is a mistake in the Senate and The House of Representative,
it is not to push forward & set a Committee to override such medieval
rule of “sovereign immunity”. Their work was incomplete.  Our People
is demanding now they finish their job.

We are not a totalitarian regime, not a fascistic one and if we adopted
wrong principles in the past,  we’re ready to correct it, as Nuremberg
Tribunal did it. Sovereign immunity protect war crimes & crimes 
against humanity sanctioned in Nuremberg.

We should follow those principles and make pretty clear to the
international community that we are ready to correct our mistakes.
I repeat, such mistake were not done by our military or our soldiers. 
They were done by our Goverments and we did the right thing in 
rejecting Obama’s policy on this matter.

We live in dangerous time and there is no way to continue doing same
mistakes. Simply, our Laws cannot protect bad Rulers inside and bad
regimes abroad that violate international Laws & promote terrorism.

Our Laws should protect State Sovereignty abroad and Peoples 
Sovereignty inside, not immunity to War crimes and Crimes against
Humanity. 

Those who commit the crimes of Set 11, 2001 should be indicted and 
pay for it, not matter what
.
If that implies a conflict of Interests between States, our Peoples
Sovereignty should  always prevail, since it is the base of our State. 
Union.
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These statements are grounded in the following literature:

The legal protection that prevents a sovereign state or person from being sued without consent of proper authorities .
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www.lectlaw.com/def2/s103.htm   "Waiver of Sovereign Immunity," provided
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Wikipedia: This principle expressed the popular legal maxim rex non potest peccare, meaning "the king can do no wrong."
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www.ejil.oxfordjournals.org  › ... › Law › European Journal of International Law
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miércoles, 28 de septiembre de 2016

SET 28 16 SIT EC y POL



SET 28 16  SIT EC y POL


ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS



"The market’s in a dangerous bubble, now let’s talk about the following stocks you just have to chase because they’re cheap."
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The Fed has created a situation where the housing industry is so dependant on the massive interest rate subsidy that any uptick in rates is likely to cause a cataclysm. The Fed and its cohorts are responsible for this mess. They have left themselves, and us, with no way out.
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Politics explain changes in oil market: the Senate voted overwhelmingly to override President Obama’s veto of a bill letting the victims of the 9/11 attacks sue Saudi Arabia.

More crappy macro data today... but all that mattered was Yellen never screwed up totally, Deutsche Bank didn't actually declare bankruptcy, and 'sources' said some short-squeeze-creating statements in Algiers...

A big gasoline build sparked selling at 1030ET.. but as Europe closed the USD turned around and then "sources" from Algiers sparked .. buying panic in crude... which then took out stops, dragged stocks and bond yields higher... before OPEC headlines late on faded the gains...  See graphs on this process at: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/09/28/20160928_EOD10_0.jpg

But .. Once again - it looks like major hedging being done into this spike in oil prices... [[ Who is doing such manipulation of prices? ]]


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While OPEC reached an "understanding on a production cut", if not exactly a production cut deal just yet - since every OPEC member's production has yet to be determined, the sell-side has responded. The following is a collection of analysts’ reactions following the OPEC announcement.
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Despite its peg, Spot Riyal is trading at its weakest in 8 months as turmoil mounts in The Kingdom as a failed 'deal' in Algiers, pay cuts for royalty, and now growing concerns that the US vote/veto on 9/11 Legislation will delay Saudi Arabia's first international bond sale. Forward bets on Saudi currency devaluation are surging and default risk is on the rise again as Bloomberg reports, a Senate vote to override President Barack Obama’s veto could cause some investors to balk at the issue.
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Following the surprising across-the-board inventory draws report by API overnight, DOE confirmed crude's overall draw (-1.88mm bartrels vs +3mm exp). However, gasoline saw the biggest build in 4 months (as distillates saw the biggest draw in almost 2 months). Crude production dropped very modestly on the week but remains stuck around 8.5mm barrels. Oil prices popped then dropped and remain lower for now...
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While OPEC may have agreed on the need to cut production, the biggest question remains unanswered: how much each country will produce is to be decided at the next formal meeting of OPEC in November.
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While OPEC reached an "understanding on a production cut", if not exactly a production cut deal just yet - since every OPEC member's production has yet to be determined, the sellside has responded. The following is a collection of analysts’ reactions following the OPEC announcement.
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‘‘How can I continue to entrust the public’s money to an organization which has shown such little regard for the legions of Californians who have placed their financial well-being in its care?”

Treasurer John Chiang says in letter to Wells Fargo’s John Stumpf, board that he’s ordered suspension of WFC’s participation in “its most highly profitable business relationships” with California.


The California Treasurer oversees ~$2t in annual state banking transactions; manages $75b investment pool; is largest U.S. issuer of municipal debt
  • Sanctions include:
    • Suspending investments by Treasurer’s office in all WFC securities
    • Suspending using WFC as broker-dealer for purchasing investments
    • Suspending WFC as managing underwriter on negotiated sales of Calif. state bonds (where Treasurer appoints underwriter)
  • Sanctions take effect immediately, will remain in place for next 12 month

….
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In the last 60 years, the US economy has never suffered such a long contraction in core durable goods orders (20 months) without officially being in recession.
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Central bankers "wring their hands all the time," Plosser noted that The Fed was very "concerned about credibility," and was "pretty good at conjuring up reasons not to act." His mutinous discussion then concluded, sounding very Trumpian, by noting that The Fed "shouldn't be afraid a recession might come," exclaiming "there's a real problem here" with The Fed.
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The fat plutocracy wants more at the cost of the whole nation.
Their gluttony is nauseous. Ms. Yellen: make them pay back the
money owed to the FED (bailouts n QEs). if they misused, indict  them

Last week, the Federal Reserve decided to keep US interest rates unchanged, marking its 96th month of life at the zero bound. Apparently, for all of its "data dependence", the Fed feels the economy could still benefit from *just* a little more of its ZIRP happy juice. But as anyone with a little common sense will tell you, More is not always better. It's quite possible to have too much of a good thing. And in its pursuit to kick the can for a little longer, the Fed has crossed a dangerous line.
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Here is Citi's most stark condemnation of not only why a Twitter purchase does not make sense but why most major media M&A in the internet space always fails.
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POLITICS

Trump’s supporters and conservative media say he won. Hillary’s supporters and the liberal media say she won. But who lost the presidential debate last night? Well, America did.
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Deplorable!!


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OB has misbalanced the system of power in America. His ..
..appointments are typical of a totalitarian systems.. he behave
like a Sec Gral of the Dems Party .. not sense of neutrality  nor
balance .. several Presid-decrets he made should be revised
and nullified as well .. He caused the death of many innocent
world-wide & inside too. EW was right, we need to depower him.
This is more effective than impeachment. It has to be continued !


Moments ago, the Senate voted overwhelmingly to override President Obama’s veto of a bill letting the victims of the 9/11 attacks sue Saudi Arabia, striking a blow to the president on foreign policy weeks before he leaves office. The vote marks the first time the Senate has mustered enough votes to overrule Obama’s veto pen.
….
RELATED


It appears for once, the word (of some politicians) is mightier than the pen (of Obama). The White House was lashed out at The Senate's veto override, which Josh Earnest described as "the single most embarrassing thing that the United States Senate has done." As The Hill reports, in the most overwhelming vote (97-1) since 1983, President Obama's lame-duckedness was exposed and that enraged Obama (and his Saudi friends' money).
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IN CASE YOU MISS IT:
More From ZeroHedge
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Democrats Panic: "This Nightmare Is About To Become Our Reality"     Hillary is surrounded by so many scandals and unanswered questions it's often difficult to keep track of the daily developments.  Just a few of the recent scandals and allegations include lying about her "pneumonia" diagnosis (does anyone actually believe she has pneumonia, btw?)
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DEMOCRACY NOW


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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS


DARPA Ramps Up Defenses Against Russia’s Electro-Attacks on the Battlefield  
DARPA:  Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) https://sputniknews.com/military/20160928/1045809256/darpa-russia-electronic-warfare.html
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US-Russia Deconfliction in Syria 'Unaffected by Washington Threat to Disengage'   https://sputniknews.com/world/20160929/1045814220/us-russia-deconfliction-in-Syria.html
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US, Russian Teams Working on Syria Remain in Contact in Geneva - State Dept.   https://sputniknews.com/world/20160929/1045814297/us-russia-working-groups-in-Syria.html
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The West Should Stop Shipping Arms to the Middle East to Ensure Peace in Syria  
https://sputniknews.com/world/20160929/1045814297/us-russia-working-groups-in-Syria.html
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG




For the bottom 90% of American households, the “prosperity” of the “recovery” since 2009 is a bright shining lie. The phrase is from a history of the Vietnam War, A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam.

Just as the Vietnam War was built on lies, propaganda, PR and rigged statistics(the infamous body counts–civilians killed as “collateral damage” counted as “enemy combatants”), so too is the “recovery” nothing but a pathetic tissue of PR, propaganda and lies. I have demolished the bogus 5.3% “increase” in median household income, the equally bogus “official inflation” body counts, oops I mean statistics, and the bogus unemployment rate:


I’m not the only one calling the “recovery” a lie: the chairman of Gallup, Jim Clifton, recently unloaded on the “recovery”:
“I’ve been reading a lot about a “recovering” economy. It was even trumpeted on Page 1 of The New York Times and Financial Times last week. I don’t think it’s true.
Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


La guerra, la paz y el absurdo  ¡Deben estar tomándonos el pelo! TE
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Chile visto por Volodia Teitelboim  Jaime Concha
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Debate Clinton vs Trump: ¿quién gano? Perdió la Nación, lo otro no importa
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Israel-EEUU   La lógica de su alianza estratégica  Michel Warschawski
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La rivalidad entre imperios en el siglo XXI  Ashley Smith Orden mundial asimétrico
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PRESS TV




nominee Gary Johnson. YES.. among evils, she is the worse!
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9/11 bill sets 'dangerous precedent'  OB said is we eliminate the
notion of “sovereign immunity” then our men and women in uniform
around the world could potentially be sued too. Why not? So next
step should be to eliminate such freedom to kill innocent people.
No “exceptionalism” on war crimes & crimes against humanity. It
was stated so by Nuremberg Tribunal that became Law on the matter.
OB’ drone policy made him a war criminal and should be sued too.
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'Saudi claim Iran arming Yemen fictitious'
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Vote to impeach Obama: war criminal
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