viernes, 2 de marzo de 2018

MAR 1 18 SIT EC y POL



MAR 1 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

The US Economic situation today:

Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg summed it all up nicely..."Hmmm. Let's see. Tariffs. Sharp bond selloff. Weak dollar policy. Massive twin deficits. New Fed Chairman. Cyclical inflationary pressures. Overvalued stock markets. Heightened volatility. Sounds eerily familiar (from someone who started his career on October 19th, 1987!)."

A very chaotic day across asset classes today amid headlines from Powell, Dudley, and Trump (note the post-Trade-War move sent USD, Bond yields, and stocks all lower together - a different regime from earlier in the day)...
SEE Chart:
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See more charts at:
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It all started in January...
SEE Chart:

Therefore, during a period when higher interest rates cause higher VIX, stock prices should fall. As DB explains, since 5 February, higher (lower) VIX has led to lower (higher) rates.
See Chart:
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As good as it gets, just got good-er...
See Chart:

As Bloomberg notes, the latest decline in weekly claims shows a tight labor market is increasingly pushing employers to hold on to existing staff amid a persistent shortage of qualified workers.
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"Let me describe to you where I think Jerome Powell is right now as he takes the reins at the Fed. I would liken Powell to General George Custer before the Battle of the Little Bighorn, looking down at an array of menacing warriors."
Read nice debate on US Econ :
Allison Nathan vs Paul Tudor Jones
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Who is sabotaging the US economy: here two answers:

The company's trading systems were recently upgraded to enable trading in bitcoin derivatives like the futures contracts offered by the CBOE and CME...
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Outside of the U.S., there is a deterioration of stability in many oil-producing regions, aggravating risks for both oil companies and the oil market, according to a new report.
The results are not encouraging.
See Chart:

The number of countries expected to see a deterioration of stability “significantly outnumber those we see becoming more stable,” the firm said.
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"In fact, that's one of the really major factors determining equity price ratios, and therefore, as real long-term interest rates rise, stock prices fall..."
Read this:
In response to a question from CNBC's Morgan Brennan about his view on markets, Greenspan said he believes we are in a bond-market bubble, and that rising long-term rates will ultimately push the US economy into a state of stagflation.

Morgan Brennan: Fed Chairman Greenspan, this is Morgan Brennan. In Light of the comments you just made and sort of this talk about budget deficits, I mean, we've heard a number of high-profile investors recently, Paul Tudor Jones, Ray Dalio, Bill Gross all say they think the bond market is a bear market. What is your take on the markets right now in light of this fiscal situation?
Greenspan: Well, you mean what do I think of markets generally?
Brennan: Yes.
Greenspan: Yeah, well I would say we are in a bond market bubble. And a bond market bubble really means that prices are too high and when they move down, long-term interest rates move up. And if you take a look at the structure of not price earnings ratios, but earnings price ratios in the stock market, you find that the critical issue of what engendered some of the strength in the recent period is essentially the decline in real long-term interest rates, as is factored into the market. That is in the process of changing. And I think that the bond market bubble is now beginning to unwind, and that is going to bring us ultimately into a state of stagflation. And beyond that it's very difficult to tell. This is not an easy economic outlook because there are too many variables, which we haven't seen in recent decades. 

Of course, the fallout from rising inflation and yields will have far-reaching reverberations across markets, particularly the equity market, Greenspan said. That's because, as real long-term interest rates rise, equity markets will inevitably decline.

Quintanilla: I guess, do we anticipate any noticeable effects on ancillary markets, equities, for example?
Greenspan: Well, of course. If the real long-term interest rates go up and you're in the process of having - it's inevitable that the effect on stock prices is negative. In fact, that's one of the really major factors determining equity price ratios, and therefore, as real long-term interest rates rise, stock prices fall. And I'm not saying what we're looking at in the last few weeks is meaningless - meaningful, but remember, the last few weeks I think are responding to the good part of the tax cut. You know, before I got into government, I was on a lot of corporate boards in which I had to sit through preparations of capital investment expenditure processes. And what struck me all the time is when they got down to the issue, the very end of it, you had what's the pretax rate of return on this investment and what is the after-tax return. And the after-tax return is a clean cut. So when you're going down from a 35% marginal rate to 21%, that's impact on perspective investments, which is exceptionally high in a marginal sense.
So I, on the one hand, in the short-term, think the capital goods markets will be okay, but longer term productivity is in for serious diminution.

In summary, investors who're trying to discern the beginning of the next equity selloff should keep an eye on break-events.
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"... which will be much much worse...Everything the Fed has done has undermined real economic growth, that is why this coming collapse is going to be so devastating..."
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo


"And the most important thing to realize is that the only solution to our budget mess is genuine entitlement reform. Which is why we need constitutional (and comprehensive) limits on total outlays. Politicians will only do what’s right if every other option is off the table."
See Chart:
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The top exporters of steel to the U.S. in 2017 were Canada, followed by Brazil, South Korea, Mexico and Russia. China did not even make the Top 10.
See Graph:
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"Sadly, Big Brother is here to stay and, with time, he will only grow more bigly; regardless of any transitory elected politicians in the governments of the world's 'sovereign' nations today. Although Aldous Huxley and George Orwell valiantly spun fictional narratives in order to warn the real world’s future citizens, they were not alone in their efforts... consider JFK's 'Secret Society' speech..."
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo


Putin warned that the creation of Russian hypersonic systems has made NATO’s U.S.-led missile defense shields in Europe utterly "useless," and means the era of the Western world attempting to prevent Russia’s expansion is over.
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Today the Trump administration announced it would sell Ukraine 210 Javelin anti-aircraft missiles and 37 launchers for $47 million
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"Our goal is to bring crypto banking at least to the level of quality of classic banking."
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars:  its profiteers US-NATO


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3


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Israel & Saudis: Blundering Into Iran  By Philip Giraldi
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Putin’s State of the Union  By Paul Craig Roberts
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Espionage and the Leak Culture   By Ray McGovern
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..


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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire: 


Euro       -Italia: El peligro Berlusconi   Guillermo Almeyra
                -La precariedad marca España  Ana Belén Martín
                -reaparic de Berlusconi:  Italia lucha contra pasado fascista  Sabrina
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USA       Florida Project: La pobreza a las puertas de Disney Kalena Thomhave
                --El "nacional-trumpismo"  John Saxe-Fernández
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                -Sólo el amor puede vencer el terrorismo  Carlos de Urabá
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OPIN     -¿Democratizar el sorteo democracia?  Julien Talpin
                --Alejados  Jaime Richart
                --Los deberes de la izquierda  Miquel Seguró
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ALC        -Bolivia:  Evolución salarial 2008-2017  Sergio Martín-Carrillo
                --Guatemala:  Las multinacionales hacen presas y presos  G Duch
                -COL: En defensa de líderes sociales en Colombia  JJ Capera
                -COL: Agredir a la FARC es atentar contra la paz  Álvaro Villarraga
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                -China, discusiones sobre capitalismo y socialismo (I)  Fdo Solana
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Cuba      -Fuera de agenda:  La elección del próximo presidente  JR Gallego
                -Qué no hacer con el sector privado en Cuba  Oniel Díaz
                -Cuba y derecho humano a la igualdad bajo dictadura imperial  RPC
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                -La distribución de la torta   Luis Casado
                -A Theotonio dos Santos   CELA   
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RU:de autodefensa a desmontaje nuclear Vs US: Casa Blanca promete reforzar arsenal nuclear
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..


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jueves, 1 de marzo de 2018

FEB 28 18 SIT EC y POL



FEB 28 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

US Economic situation today:

This is the first down-February for The Dow since 2009, the worst February for the S&P 500 in 9 years, first down-month since Oct 2016, and biggest monthly drop since Jan 2016 (right before the Shanghai Accord)...
See Chart:

This is also the worst month since August 2015 for 'balanced' portfolios with an aggregate bond and stock mix down dramatically (both bonds and stocks down)...
SEE Chart:

Treasuries rallied today, erasing the Powell Pop in yields from yesterday...
See chart:

The Dollar Index extended its recent gains today (best month for Dollar Index since Feb 2017) but continues to trade in a relatively narrow range...
See Chart:

Bonus Chart:  According to analysts at Bespoke Investment Group the high-flying technology sector hit a potentially ominous milestone on Tuesday: It now amounts to more than 25 percent of the S&P 500 Index.
See chart :

“It’s the first time the sector has made up at least a quarter of the S&P since a one-year period that ran from Thanksgiving 1999 through Thanksgiving 2000...Notably, the weighting only got above 25 percent for the final four months of the dot-com bubble when share prices were going insane.”
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"Investors have no doubt become accustomed to the easy gains provided by equity markets over the past ten years, and old habits are hard to break but we know valuations to be mean-reverting..."
See Chart:
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Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The reality is these are winner take most fields of endeavor, and the vast majority of hopefuls will earn a tiny piece of the long-tail of income distribution.
See Chart at the source below
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A team of economists looking at a link between pregnancies and recessions, found that conception rates begin to drop before the economy starts its downturn, and maybe be used to predict recessions.
See Chart:
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In what may be the most unremarkable GDP revision in years, moments ago the BEA revised its initial Q4 GDP estimate from 2.6% to 2.5%, lowering the number by a few hundreds of a basis point, to 2.530% specifically, and in line with estimates.
See Chart
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"We agree with the market’s hawkish assessment of Powell’s comments. At this point we see roughly even odds that the median dot will show 3 hikes (2.125%) or 4 hikes (2.375%) for 2018 in March" - Goldman Sachs

The Treasury market sold off in response to those comments, as shown in Exhibit 1. Most investors appeared not to have anticipated that Powell would both acknowledge the incrementally better news and link it to the FOMC’s projections for its policy rate so soon and so straightforwardly.
Exhibit 1: The Bond Market Sold Off in Response to Powell’s Hawkish Comments
See chart:
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"It would take a big surprise from US ISM data to avoid a second monthly decline in global PMI measures. That, along with falling economic surprise indices, and signs that at a global level inflationary pressures aren't noticeably building, fuels the view that the growth spurt at the end of 2017 is now behind us."
See Chart:

Economic data confirms this: global economic surprise indices, and especially in the EU and US, have taken a clear turn lower.
See Chart:
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo


"Imagine for a moment a scheme in which American taxpayers were taken to the cleaners to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars and there was barely a hint of criticism or outrage..."
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"This month’s stock market correction is still fresh in everyone’s mind. Many have even begun to wonder if the era of dark money was truly over... I don’t buy this at all. I believe these fears of inflation are overblown."
See chart:
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"Peter Schiff is right... The next downturn, which will come soon, is going to be a serious one and the Fed doesn’t have any magic whatsoever...central economic planning never works no matter how long they get away with it."
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Bad intentioned article:

"...and it all began in 1971, when the US Supreme Court decided a case called Griggs vs. Duke Power Co. The subject was employment requirements... and The Left jumped all over it."
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo


"If the system falls, it will be the fall of a monster. When banks try to call in their huge fiat debts, it could cause an avalanche of repercussions. The elite will be safe, but the vast majority will be left in dire straits. "
See Chart: The dollar v. Gold
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"... geopolitical turmoil is already causing disruptions in major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, raising questions about the region’s ability to supply the global market in the long run."
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"Everybody should understand that the US military are preparing the militaries of European states to use tactical nuclear weapons against Russia..."
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars:  its profiteers US-NATO


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3


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Why One War When We Can Have Two!   By Eric Margolis
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Wake Up: STOP Rohingya Abuse   By Nobel Peace trio to Suu Kyi
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How the Pentagon Devours the Budget  By William D. Hartung
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Guns and Liberty    By Chris Hedges
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..


Federal Reserve interest rate is at a record low right now, so the typical response of lowering it by 500 basis points will not be available as it usually is when the crisis comes. Without such monetary policy instruments, the US government will have to face a much longer crisis, he said.
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire: 


USA       -¿Nunca más?  David Brooks
                -DACA y la traición a jornaleros indocumentados  Ilka Oliva
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COL        -El "socialicidio" colombiano  José Antonio Gutiérrez
                -Paulita: madre, rebelde... Elena  Comandante Antonio García
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                --Apuntes: fundamentación filosófica del laicismo  José María Agüera
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FEM       -Huelga feminista 8M: Por un 8-M violeta y sin banderas   Beatriz S
                -Cuando caen máscaras, causa espanto el rostro del capitalis Cecilia
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                -amor y odio entre el Pdo Comunis y el Frent Amplio   Macarena S
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VEN       -Para leer en la cola No 27   CRISOL  
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                -Una breve historia de los Peajes   Gustavo Guerra García          
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                Decretó la Indep de España adonde fue, pero no liberó a nadie.
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Keiser Report   Decisiones absurdas
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..


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