lunes, 24 de junio de 2019

ND JUN 24 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  JUN  24 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
 
ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Without the quad-witch magic, stocks unable to hold gains as bonds, bullion, and bitcoin all see safe-haven bids
Ugly day for Trannies and Small Caps, Dow managed to cling to gains but S&P and Nasdaq scrambled around unch before a weak close (second in a row)...
See Chart:

The (cash) opening spike at the open could not hold...
See Chart:

Dow Industrials and Transports have notably decoupled...
See Chart:
Dow Industrials  vs. Dow Transports

Notably, the decoupling of Small Caps and Trannies occurred when the ammo for short-squeezes ran out...
See Chart:
Most Shorter Stocks

VIX and Stocks remain decoupled...
See Chart:

Bloomberg's Ye Xie notes, the risk is that the equity market hasn't priced in enough potential bad news on earnings and the economy.
See Chart:

Notably though, equity risk has entirely decoupled from the risk of bonds and bullion - some suggest this as a simple way to quantify the 'value' of the 'Fed Put' - around equity 25 vol points compression
See Chart:

Treasury yields were down a pretty uniform 3-4bps or so across the curve...
See Chart:

And the yield curve flattened...now inverted for 22 days straight...
See Chart:

The Dollar Index extended its decline...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index

Falling well below its 200DMA now...
See Chart:
DXY Dollar Index

Finally, when everything is yielding below zero, a zero-yielding asset has more value...
See Chart:
Market Value of Global  vs. Gold
"World-Gone-Mad" premium soars.
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"Spot and July VIX, which expires pre-FOMC, fell sharply on the FOMC news but have bounced since while the belly of the curve is now higher than before the meeting."
In the immediate aftermath of the dovish Fed announcement which saw the Fed lose its "patience" and guide to a July hike (with the market now pricing in roughly 30% of a 50bps double-cut next month), spot and July VIX, which expires pre-FOMC, fell sharply on the news but have bounced since while the belly of the curve is now higher than before the meeting.
See Chart:
Pre FED Current vs. VIX term Structure

Meanwhile, as noted above volatility was far more bouncy across other assets, with both yen and 10-year Treasury VIXs have also risen after initial declines suggesting surprisingly little change to the already nervous cross-asset market risk sentiment (Figure 1).
See Chart:

Even as UBS notes that it is "tactically positive global equity markets and estimate about 3.5% upside to fair value, all else equal, from a 25bps lower discount rate consistent with revisions to the long term dot", the risk remains that the Fed's string is getting too long and soft to push on it: as Kaiser concludes "the challenge for risk assets will be balancing lower rates with the slower growth outlook necessary to justify them."
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"There is perhaps no broader measure of economic activity for the US than Freight shipments. It is now at a critical level as further deterioration could be sending a real signal about recession risk."
See Chart:
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...where just a few weeks ago would-be gold and silver buyers thought they had plenty of time and feared being stuck in a dead-money asset, they now feel like time is running out. FOMO has become their dominant impulse...
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

"The insouciant American - indeed, Western - people are kept unaware by design... What I am telling you is that it is very easy for fanatics to produce Armageddon..."
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"Monetary accommodation is not "free." I am concerned that adding monetary stimulus, at this juncture, would contribute to a build-up of excesses and imbalances in the economy which may ultimately prove to be difficult and painful to manage."
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"You're scaring the children (of illegal immigrants)..."
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Follows Tucker Carlson's "bureaucratic tapeworm" comment.
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The asymmetries are piling up and we're cracking under the weight...
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"The truth is the communist party isn’t out to hurt you ... it will set you free." 
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

"The insouciant American - indeed, Western - people are kept unaware by design... What I am telling you is that it is very easy for fanatics to produce Armageddon..."
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It is clear that Iran is sending the U.S. a stern message. And that message is we can hurt you asymmetrically as much as you hurt us...
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When asked if troops were detaining migrants to prevent them from entering the US, Sandoval said "yes."
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"If sanctions are not lifted one way or another, we are only at the beginning of the crisis. Much more can be expected" — IRGC General
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Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that can ship crude oil outside the Persian Gulf and have the additional pipeline capacity to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz...
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"To China, he is still a CIA director who takes over State Department."
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"It will have an effect because it will annoy the Iranians and make negotiations hard to pull off if the supreme leader is sanctioned."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
Cuba: Bloqueo USA a Cuba: una breve historia  Delia Luisa López
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Howard Lisnoff  “Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran”
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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