domingo, 23 de junio de 2019

ND JUN 23 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  JUN  23 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


"If the Fed is truly committed to preemptive rate cuts in order to provide insurance why did it not cut its policy rate this week?"

Amid record high asset prices in virtually everything following last week's dovish FOMC, a fresh concern has emerged: the gaping "alligator jaws" between bond yields and stocks have never been wider, with the latest thrust coming first after Powell's early June admission that an easing cycle is imminent, following by last week's even more dovish FOMC announcement, which confirmed that a July rate cut is in the books, and sent stocks to new all time highs, while bond yields tumbled below 2%, the lowest in three years.
See Chart:
S&P vs. 10Y Yield


In not so many words, that is the ultimate Catch 22 that the Fed has created: the market and economy are only viable as long as the Fed is backstopping them; once the support goes away, the wave function - to extend the flawed analogy - of the economy and market collapses, and the true state of both is exposed (at the cost of trillion in risk asset losses)….
See Charts:
Market reaction to FED cuts: It’s the Economy, again


There is another key observation: maybe the surge in both bonds and stocks is not an ill omen, but perfectly self-explanatory. This is the argument made in a Friday note from JPM's Nikolaos Panagirtzoglou, in which the derivatives strategist writes that while this year’s co-movement of bonds and equities seems rather unusual, "it is actually more common than typically thought. 
See Chart:
MSCI AC World In dex


This is an important difference to last year. This year’s bond rally which gathered pace in recent weeks has unwound entirely the large bond underweight that had emerged in September last year.
See Chart: Pre Lehman vs Post Lehman


Meanwhile, over on the equity side, the mirror image of this unwinding of the previous bond underweight is that the current equity overweight is significantly smaller from that seen in September last year, which at 45.5% represented a post Lehman high at the time.
So, according to JPMorgan, despite global equity prices being close to the highs of last September, investors are not as OW in equities as they were last September simply because bond markets rallied strongly this year making them less UW in bonds, or to put it in graphic:
See Chart:
Implied Cash allocation by global non-bank investors


Finally, in the third and most painful for the bulls, scenario where the Fed and/or other central banks end up being rather reactive and cut rates in response to weak growthequities could follow a weak trajectory similar to more typical previous Fed easing cycles, rather than the strong trajectory seen during 1995 or 1998. For those who need a reminder, it is also the case that the last three recessions all followed within a few months after the Fed's first rate cut. Furthermore as @Northmantrader recently pointed out, every time the FED cut their rates while unemployment was below 4%, a recession started almost immediately?

See Chart:
Blue line: Civilian unemployment rate vs red line Effective FED Funds rate


In other words, of the above three scenarios only one scenario, that of a pre-emptive Fed that is set to provide insurance similar to the 1995 and 1998 episodes, is positive for equities. 
And here a problem emerges, because as Bullard explained last weekpreemptive means cutting rates when growth indicators are still good rather than waiting for growth indicators to weaken.
And this brings up what JPMorgan believes is the most important question following this week’s FOMC meeting:

"If the Fed is truly committed to preemptive rate cuts in order to provide insurance why did it not cut its policy rate this week?"
,,,

And while not necessarily connected to JPM's line of reasoning, if perfectly summarizing the zeitgeist on the continued Fed manipulation and intervention in markets, here is a must-see chart from Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager with Federated Investors
See Chart:


... the questions of just how much longer can the Fed keep indefinitely postponing the "longer" part will only grow louder, until finally not even the monetary Atlas that is Jay Powell, can keep the sky from falling any longer.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



“The federal government forced legally married same-sex couples to file as individuals and pay more in taxes for almost a decade...We need to call out that discrimination and to make it right..."
BRAVO: Asegurando la captura del voto femenino + +
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This statement by the judge captures the Alice-in-Wonderland quality of the judicial persecution of Assange...
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Researchers wondered what the nation's most selective colleges and universities would look like if theyadmitted students solely on the basis of SAT scores... Their answer: Campuses would be wealthier, whiter, and more male.
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Our society has a legal structure of self-rule and ownership of capital, but in reality it is a Neofeudal Oligarchy.
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The killing of consumer sovereignty by manipulat TV Propag and tons of junk mail
Read info in:
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Quemo casa con familias dentro y luego dijo que no hay aagua para apagar el incendio

Trade wars, Comey, Mueller, Korea, Cold War, government shutdown, impeachment, immigration, invasion, quantitative tightening, Turkey, Venezuela, SWIFT payments, sanctions, Huawei, Mexico, Iran, Fed independence... Each new worry magically extends the rally...
QT: Deben o no ser juzgados por un Nuevo Nurenberg Court?. Que sentencia pediria para POTUS y su troica?.. paredon sería un regalo.. el péndulo y el sable Saudi también…quizá se merecen las hogueras de la Santa Inquisición feudal y cuando estén ya ceniza, llevamos agua.hirviendo para desinfectar el contexto ambiental, no vaya ser que hasta las cenizas de esos inhumanos sea venenosa.
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Apenas caigan los 1ros misiles se disipa el opio “patriotismo” y muchos vuelan afuera
...American culture creates the kind of people we need to save the world, but they’re also subject to themost sophisticated propaganda in the world...
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'Losing credibility' you say?
"WAR MONGERING MANIACs".. PERFECT DESCRIPTION
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Unsurprisingly, the polling uncovered a deep partisan divide...
See Chart:
Do you support or oppouse US Military actions against Iran?
….
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Tensions in the Persian Gulf are reaching a point of no return...
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La Guerra con IRAN es lo que quieren los reales  enemigos del US
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...it is an excellent case study in how the international community can properly deal with and respond to the often irrational and potentially destabilizing actions of former global hegemons when in a state of decline...
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"A pause would reinforce our current views: a range-bound path for the S&P, with a downward skew from current levels; a wider bias for credit spreads; and a preference for government bonds on expectations for further Fed easing."
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Cuando preguntaron a los Taiwanese que piensan de Trump? Preferimos China dijeron
Trump inflicted much pain on China and vice versa. This is always the case in trade wars. Sideline beneficiaries abound...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

-Pompeo Departs for Saudi Arabia, UAE to Build Coalition Against 'State Sponsor of Terror' Iran   Dicen que el perro rabioso cruzo la trinchera y no regreso ..no body care
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

RT EN ESPANIOL 

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-Fool Me Twice   By Paul Edwards
-America’s Respectable War Criminals   By Rev. William Alberts
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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