viernes, 22 de octubre de 2010

DEVALUATION OF DOLLARS UN ASAULT on DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

DEVALUATION OF DOLLARS UN ASAULT on DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Haz, octubre 18, 2010.
QE IS GOOD FOR THE NORTH TOUGH VERY BAD FOR THE SOUTH

If in 1974 the devaluation of the foreign currencies in the south was 52.6 percentage points in relation to the US dollar, the current “quantitative easing” (QE) will create similar situation but slowly, said Hudson and other economists.

The effect will be anyway devastating for emerging economies like the Brazilian, Peruvian or Chilean booming economies. So far we got 7% in the depreciation of those latino currencies, and it will be even worse. It is time to move away from the US dollar or control our assets, debts, and row materials.

[Read more in Michael Hudson, October 17-10. Por qué los EEUU han desencadenado una nueva Guerra Mundial financiera y cómo reaccionará el resto del mundo. In www.sinpermiso.info, 17 octubre 2010. See also “World needs to stay vigilant about active depreciation of the dollar” , October 13, 2010 IN http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90780/91421/7165351.html. Or: Who fires first shot of "currency war"? October 12-10. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90858/7164048.html]

Let’s see how the neoliberal are thinking on QEs.

The Brits are easy to understand:
“If a government prints money faster than the growth of real GDP output it reduces the value of money and this invariably causes inflation (it is said in http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/effect-of-printing-money-on-economy/ ).

Governments often resort to printing money when they cannot finance their borrowing by selling bonds (or security treasures in American English). This hyperinflation can be extremely damaging to an economy.” [QE policy immediately conjures up memories of hyper inflation in Wiemar Germany in 1923 and Zimbabwe in more recent times]. The other risk is that once the Central Bank releases QEs is very difficult to remove the excess liquidity when the economy recovers (it means that QEs are very temporary policies, no more than 2 years). The worst effect of printing money is that “it reduces the value of your currency. Inflation reduces the value of domestic securities making international investors leave the economy.”

However: [here comes the Brits phlegmatic mood on this issue (open http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/money/printing-money-and-effect-on-sterling/] , their reasoning goes in this way:

If printing money to be circulated into your own economy, is very bad business since it inevitably leads to increased inflation in your own country, printing more money to purchase from other countries (e.g. to repay debt or to purchase raw materials) is very good business. It means that the extra-money is simply dumped into other country, leading to higher inflation in that country and not in your own. By dumping the extra money overseas, you are indirectly creating more money in your own territory. Is this the case today?. The Brits said a naked true so far and how they will answer such question? With Yes and not, as usual.

Yes if you buy highly valued assets abroad. Not, If you print money to buy goods overseas, in this way you will effectively devaluate your currency, reducing the purchasing power of the “the pound” or the dollar. So, printing money would not solve the problem of our foreign debt.

When the north releases this QEs?

Their answer is “In a very serious recession, when demand falls so much that it is possible to increase money supply without creating inflationary pressure” (are we in the US in a serious recession?). We are in a serious chronic deflation, with a chance of a new round of deep recession. Does QEs create chances for inflation? Yes and not again. Yes if the circulation of money is so slow, as it happens during deflation, or the post 1st recession in the US; but not if it circulates fast, as it is happening in the so called BRIC countries and other developing countries. So, this money supply or QE is needed to curb the chronic deflation in the north not in the south. If there were not such “serious new recession at portas, or chronic deflation, the north would print money knowing that invariably cause inflation.

However, they said that even “in periods of falling velocity of circulation (number of times money changes hands), printing money doesn’t necessarily cause inflation” in the north, the inflation is transferred to the South, theey will pay for the crisis created in the north. But “The credit crunch can caused a fall in the velocity of circulation”. So, there is prospects of inflation in the north due to the “crunch” of dollars, and other hard currencies (not use to inflationary variatons). Besides the US, Japan is printing money again, the UK and others.

All the north is creating a sunami of hard currencies on the south with the same purpose (get all the riches of the south at cheap price), formally in the name of preventing another round of recession. Like in the other type of war, this preempting attack on the south is going to destroy the backyard in the assumption that had left alive they could destroy the north. They are going to kill “la gallina de los huevos de oro”. The result will be chaos and an invariable round of hyperinflation and its collaterals: social-political instability.

How Does Quantitative Easing Work? Haz octubre 19-2010

Again the Brits are easy to understand. I’ll paraphrase them critically.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/effect-of-printing-money-on-economy/

1. The Central Bank CB creates reserves. This is creating money electronically. Basically, the Bank just decides to inflate its cash reserves usually in an amount equivalent of their GDP. It is assumed that if the increase in money supply is lower than the real GDP growth, then inflation can be averted. The case is that now the US is printing beyond such cannon since the intention is sending this money abroad.

2. With this extra cash the CB will buy a range of government gilts (securities) and private sector assets such as corporate bonds [that is, it will clean or buy the toxic debts of US banks. In other words, the CB will subsidize again the private sector with a different type of bail out. To prevent that the private sector will take advantage as in previous bail outs, the Central Bank will control the money and if they behave bad another TARP will come. The capital have to be moved abroad asap, and private speculator will have all the protection to go abroad and buy debts like the one in Greece or other resources and get huge profits enough to pay back the money to the CB. It is the CB that will control the convertibility of foreign currencies into devaluated dollar. This money is going to BRIC countries. They have to share the responsibilities of the current recession, said Tim Geithner

3. With the part of the QE for domestic consumption (30% of the total, speculate some economists) the private banks will sell their toxic debts to the Central Bank and see an increase in their cash reserves. It is expected that “With these cash reserves they should be more willing to lend money to boost the domestic economy”.

4. While buying their own debt the CB and private banks (buying government bonds and toxic debts at a devaluated price of 1%], the Central Bank will later increase the value of bonds purshased since their long term interest rates will go down. This fall in long term interest rates also has a reflationary effect (it will curb the effects of deflation, is said in http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reflation.asp).

HOW ALL THIS MESS STARTS?Let’s read again Michal Hudson above “Por qué los EEUU han desencadenado una nueva Guerra Mundial financiera y cómo reaccionará el resto del mundo”( www.sinpermiso.info, 17 octubre 2010) and also http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/effect-of-printing-money-on-economy/

In early September, news that the U.S. Federal Reserve released a second round of “quantitative easing” (trillion of devaluated dollars at 1% interest rate) started to make headlines.// This second phase of quantitative easing has been widely viewed "an atomic bomb" since the Fed's will inject further huge liquidity into the U.S. economy, though it is expected that 70% of this sunami of dollars will invade foreign markets .

This inflationary policy will make easy for US investors to buy bonds or any debt or resources abroad at cheap price a resealed at higher price , this rampant cycle of speculation will create chaos at two levels, finances (currency parity) and at the level of international trade. The quantitative easing should not bother any other countries much if the U.S. dollar not been the dominant international reserve currency.

But given the "exorbitant priviledge" the U.S. has long enjoyed as a currency hegemony, it is no surprise that the move worries other countries with a prospect of them being flooded with cheap U.S. dollars.

The U.S. dollar has been weakening since mid-September against other currencies such as the Singapore dollar, the Thai baht, the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah.

The Japanese yen also hit its highest in 15 years against the U.S. dollar last Friday on New York market. Japan took to public intervening in the forex market for the first time since 2004. There are market speculations that the Thai government might intervene publicly.

At this point is appealing the title Currency war or wealth stealing? By Li Hong, the one who coined “currency war” (.http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90002/96743/7160702.html. Oct9-10.) He said, Economists and insiders warn of breakout of a global "currency war", which risks hijacking a nascent world recovery and sending many economies back to instability and contraction. The next day the Brazilian minister of economy voiced loudly “we are at war”.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve almost certain to extend its "quantitative easing" monetary policy by printing and throwing more dollar bills into the broad economy, countries such as Japan, China, India and in the euro-zone will feel an increasing pinch of the weakening greenback. The counter-measures may include "learning experiences" by some central banks, including the Bank of Japan, to supply more yen papers and dilute its value at the market. The European central bank could decide to do the same, too, said Hudson.

jueves, 7 de octubre de 2010

Disvarguing Llosa, the nobel prize

Politics and economics behind the nomination of Vargas Llosa as Nobel Prize of Literature

Hugo Adan (october 7-2010)

How a Nobel Prize of Literature was given to a man that was indicted by the Ayacucho Supreme Court of lying in relation to the Uchurajay massacre in 1983?. Incredeible!. More than a hundred poor peasants were assassinated in Ayacucho-Peru (among them primary school students) between abril-december 1983. Eight journalist from Lima went to Uchurajay (where the last massacre occurred) and they were assesinated too. A True Committee was set to investigate these crimes, it was presided by Vargas Llosa. The entire nation hope that he will unveil the truth, people believe in this honorable member of the oligarchy. He failed, he lie, he accuse the victims even though mounting evidences accuse the military of such crimes. (see in this regard Nizkor report from Esteban Cuya in Las comisiones de la Verdad in Latin America : http://www.derechos.org/nizkor/doc/verdad.html#per ) .

In 2003 another True Committee was set (we called CVR) and this one found that most of the crimes in Ayacucho at that time were done by the military. When the Ayacucho Court asked Vargas Llosa why he falsify the truth, he said that he was trying to save “democracy in Peru” and not the terrorists. He didn’t save democracy, he save the impunity of the military. The Ayacucho Court send a petition to the Supreme Court in Lima to indict him and he scape to Sapin. A summary of this report on CVR vs. Vargas Llosa I sent it to http://peru.indymedia.org/news/2003/08/2269.php ). In brief, Mario Vargas Llosa was an accomplice of the crimes against humanity committed by the military in Peru in the 1980s.

The phony democracy that Vargas Llose defended with lies was based on cruel dictatorship of the white oligarchy who ruled the nation since the independence from Spain. This oligarchy has close ties to bankers in NY like Pedro Pablo Kuczynski who was twice minister of Economics in Peru and serves know as advisor of the current President Garcia. Kuczynski was the implementer of the neoliberal policies that Vargas Llosa supported in Peru. Kuczynski and his mafia was the real ruler of Peru during Toledo’s Presidency, he was the mastermind who planned the selling Peruvian riches at banana price. This happens just when Vargas Llosa found his paradise in a town in the North of Peru in which one Minister of Toledo was accused of trafficking prostitution with minors. This is the kind of oligarchy that Vargas Llosa belong too.

He definitely keeps good relation with mafia bankers of NY (Kuczynski contacts and perhaps with Soros too). We wonder if they are behind this nomination of Nobel Prizes for literature as people suspect that they were in the nomination of Obama as nobel prize for peace (another liar). Some day we will know the politics and economics of all these nominations. We should not trust anymore the nobel prizes.

Vargas Llosa and the oligarchy in Peru are definitely accomplices of crimes against humanity in Peru. The resistance and social reaction to the oligarchical dictatorship was typified as “terrorism”. The rulers of Peru were using this policy in the 1980’s, the same one that we are using now (anti-terrorist laws) as an argument to excuse any abuse against the civilian population. One of the victims of these “laws”, is Lori Berenson, an American freelancer that try to interview a woman leader from MRTA, a rebel movement in Peru. This Bush type of policy was the one that Vargas Llosa defended in Peru.

The Nob el Prize to Vargas Llosa is a legitimation of past and current crimes against humanity, crimes against innocent people accused of being “terrorist”. Now that we have evidences that many innocent people were accused of this illegalities, just now comes this Nobel Prize. It certainly helps to legitimize the impunity of the real terrorist in power, a policy that entire nations of the world are against to.

The Peruvian population already punished Vargas Llosa in the 1990 electoral process. He had cynicism of postulating to the Presidency of Peru, but the nation preferred to vote an unknown person who promised not to implement the neoliberal shock therapy that Vargas Llosa was recommended to Peru. Now Fujimory –the unknown- is in prison for lying and for committing crimes against humanity, just the crimes that the Nobel Prize committee in Stockholm is trying to legitimize by prizing a wrong person.

Sources:

http://www.derechos.org/nizkor/doc/verdad.html#per
http://peru.indymedia.org/news/2003/08/2269.php
http://nobelprize.org/
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/

====================================================

Official announcement:

Mario Vargas Llosa, nominated Nobel Prize 2010 of Literatura

LITERATURE: Peruvian by birth and a truly international citizen, the 2010 Nobel Laureate in Literature embraces multiple genres (novels, plays, essays), and politics too, in his commitment to social change.

The Nobel Prize in Literature 2010 was awarded to Mario Vargas Llosa "for his cartography of structures of power and his trenchant images of the individual's resistance, revolt, and defeat".

Read also:
"The Nobel Prize in Literature", 1999. by Kjell Espmark*
3 December 1999. Kjell was member of a committee that nominates Nobel Prizes
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/articles/espmark/
* Published as a chapter of The Nobel Prize: The First 100 Years, Agneta Wallin Levinovitz and Nils Ringertz, eds., Imperial College Press and World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., 2001.

Kjell Espmark (b. 1930) is a poet, a novelist, and a literary historian. He was professor in comparative Literature at the University of Stockholm 1978-1995, became a member of the Swedish Academy in 1981 and the chairman of its Nobel Committee in 1988. The best-known of his seven books of criticism (including studies of Harry Martinsson, Tomas Tranströmer, and the tradition from Baudelaire) is The Nobel Prize in Literature, A Study of the Criteria behind the choices (1986; in English in 1991); it can also be read in French, German, Greek, and Chinese.

Nobel Prize Vargas Llosa accomplice of crimes against humanity

Politics and economics behind the nomination of Vargas Llosa as Nobel Prize of LiteratureHugo Adan (october 7-2010)

How a Nobel Prize of Literature was given to a man that was indicted by the Ayacucho Supreme Court of lying in relation to the Uchurajay massacre in 1983?. Incredeible!. More than a hundred poor peasants were assassinated in Ayacucho-Peru (among them primary school students) between abril-december 1983. Eight journalist from Lima went to Uchurajay (where the last massacre occurred) and they were assesinated too.

A True Committee was set to investigate these crimes, it was presided by Vargas Llosa. The entire nation hope that he will unveil the truth, people believe in this honorable member of the oligarchy. He failed, he lie, he accuse the victims even though mounting evidences accuse the military of such crimes. (see in this regard Nizkor report from Esteban Cuya in Las comisiones de la Verdad in Latin America : http://www.derechos.org/nizkor/doc/verdad.html#per ) . In 2003 another True Committee was set (we called CVR) and this one found that most of the crimes in Ayacucho at that time were done by the military. When the Ayacucho Court asked Vargas Llosa why he falsify the truth, he said that he was trying to save “democracy in Peru” and not the terrorists. He didn’t save democracy, he save the impunity of the military. The Ayacucho Court send a petition to the Supreme Court in Lima to indict him and he scape to Sapin. A summary of this report on CVR vs. Vargas Llosa I sent it to http://peru.indymedia.org/news/2003/08/2269.php ). In brief, Mario Vargas Llosa was an accomplice of the crimes against humanity committed by the military in Peru in the 1980s.

The phony democracy that Vargas Llose defended with lies was based on cruel dictatorship of the white oligarchy who ruled the nation since the independence from Spain. This oligarchy has close ties to bankers in NY like Pedro Pablo Kuczynski who was twice minister of Economics in Peru and serves know as advisor of the current President Garcia. Kuczynski was the implementer of the neoliberal policies that Vargas Llosa supported in Peru. Kuczynski and his mafia was the real ruler of Peru during Toledo’s Presidency, he was the mastermind who planned the selling Peruvian riches at banana price. This happens just when Vargas Llosa found his paradise in a town in the North of Peru in which one Minister of Toledo was accused of trafficking prostitution with minors. This is the kind of oligarchy that Vargas Llosa belong too.

He definitely keeps good relation with mafia bankers of NY (Kuczynski contacts and perhaps with Soros too). We wonder if they are behind this nomination of Nobel Prizes for literature as people suspect that they were in the nomination of Obama as nobel prize for peace (another liar). Some day we will know the politics and economics of all these nominations. We should not trust anymore the nobel prizes.

Vargas Llosa and the oligarchy in Peru are definitely accomplices of crimes against humanity in Peru. The resistance and social reaction to the oligarchical dictatorship was typified as “terrorism”. The rulers of Peru were using this policy in the 1980’s, the same one that we are using now (anti-terrorist laws) as an argument to excuse any abuse against the civilian population. One of the victims of these “laws”, is Lori Berenson, an American freelancer that try to interview a woman leader from MRTA, a rebel movement in Peru. This Bush type of policy was the one that Vargas Llosa defended in Peru.

The Nobel Prize to Vargas Llosa is a legitimation of past and current crimes against humanity, crimes against innocent people accused of being “terrorist”. Now that we have evidences that many innocent people were accused of this illegalities, just now comes this Nobel Prize. It certainly helps to legitimize the impunity of the real terrorist in power, a policy that entire nations of the world are against to.

The Peruvian population already punished Vargas Llosa in the 1990 electoral process. He had cynicism of postulating to the Presidency of Peru, but the nation preferred to vote an unknown person who promised not to implement the neoliberal shock therapy that Vargas Llosa was recommended to Peru. Now Fujimory –the unknown- is in prison for lying and for committing crimes against humanity, just the crimes that the Nobel Prize committee in Stockholm is trying to legitimize by prizing a wrong person.

Sources:
http://www.derechos.org/nizkor/doc/verdad.html#per
http://peru.indymedia.org/news/2003/08/2269.php
http://nobelprize.org/
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/

sábado, 2 de octubre de 2010

Venezuela A VOTAR en las ASAMBLEAS POPULARES

VENEZUELA: El VOTO NO HA CONCLUIDO, RECIEN EMPIEZA
Haz, sept 29-2010 draft

La critica interna de pueblo a la burocracia chavista fracaso, la derecha capitalizo el descontento, el voto reciente lo expreso asi. La derecha ha crecido y hoy tiene real poder en el parlamento, no para implementar sus politicas, pero si para obstruir el avance revoluciomario, desde alli “jugaran a la democracia” (a generar inestabilidad) en pro del arrivo de los marines. Eso esta clarisimo.

Con poder poder en el parlamento, y control casi total de la mass media y con capacidad de mobilizacion de bases, apuntan al golpe de Estado. Empezaran tomando calles, sera lo central de su estrategia desestabilizadora, el parlamento es secundario para ellos, en las calles buscaran el enfrentamiento a toda costa. Mientras tanto, los marines esperan en Colombia.

Es en las calles que hay que responderles, sin enfrentarlos, pero mobilizando pueblo por la toma de empresas que sirven el interes imperial, por el cierre de la embajada Americana y el retiro de las bases militares estacionadas en Colombia, contra la Guerra de pillaje petrolero que se avecina. Lo central de la estrategia antimperial sera sin embargo la construccion de Asambleas populares para el debate y adopcion de politicas locales.

Las elecciones transformaron al pueblo en objeto e instrumento de intereses ajenos al pais, los pro-imperiales que la derecha representa. Hay que hacer hoy lo inverso: convertir al pueblo en sujeto, en actor de su propia historia. Hay que evitar que el descontento popular sea usado para el asalto al petroleo venezolano. Hay que unir Estado, gobierno y nacion contra el imperio.

Ellos invertiran y fuerte en su objetivo golpista, la antesala del bombardeo e invasion militar, no perderan un minuto en dividir la nacion y facilitar la invasion. Estado y pueblo chavistas deben hacer lo mismo, hoy estan separados y hay que propiciar la union a partir de proyectos de rectificacion concretos. Que todos los debates y la accion popular gire de hoy para adelante en torno a la solucion de los problemas que afligen al pueblo y que generaron su descontento.

No se trata de defender al chavismo burocratico e inefectivo, se trata de reemplazarlo, de desplazar poder estatal hacia el pueblo. Sin pueblo no hay socialismo. El pueblo no quiere que el “chavismo” realmente existente, burocratico, corrupto y traidor, lo represente. Lo que quiere el pueblo es representarse a si mismo.

Es claro que el chavismo en el control del Estado y el poder politico lo abandono al no hacer possible las rectificaciones que demandaba el pueblo. Se tuvo parlamento con mayoria absoluta y no se hizo lo que el pueblo queria, eso es traicion.

El chavismo dejo de representarlo y hoy es el pueblo quien empezo a abandonarlo. Del 2006, al 2010, son 3 Mlls de votos que se han ido.

Hoy la nacion esta dividida y en peligro de ser invadida y este es el punto de infleccion que se avecina. La derecha usara cualquier pretexto para facilitar la invasion y Guerra que asumen sera muy rapida, violenta y devastadora. Apuntan contra Chavez y lo mas noble del chavismo, el esto conciliara ante el temor de otro bombardeo. Les fue facil convertir al pueblo en objeto o instrument electoral, creen que tambien sera facil someterlo por la violencia.
De lo que se trata ahora es de convertir al pueblo en sujeto y que en cambio sea la burocracia chavista en el poder arriba, su instrumento politico. Y si no obedecen lo que el pueblo ordene en sus asambleas populares –donde si habra real votacion popular- se debera exigir que sean separados del cargo. Y si loos ministros de Chavez o Chavez mismo, no pueden ordenarlo, que se vayan tambien.

De ahora para adelante es el pueblo quien definira si la revolucion se profundiza o si se cierra la bodega. Que desde ahora el Estado que el pueblo conquisto sirva y defienda la voluntad de cambio sepultada por quienes nominaron a dedo a candidatos no pre-seleccionados por el pueblo. El pueblo quiere ser sujeto y actor de su propio destino y eso es lo que Estado, Gbno y su Pdte deben facilitar.

Que se pase a voto todas las politicas que dejaron de hacerse y se hagan ya todas las correcciones que no se hicieron y que en cada municipio y localidad se instalen comites de rectificacion con gente joven y honesta y a partir de ello se convoque a Asambleas Populares donde el pueblo decida la politica que mejor conviene a su region.

El voto no ha concluido, el voto recien empieza y no sera el votante en el parlamento quien decidira la suerte de Venezuela. Sera abajo, sera el pueblo quien lo decida en cada localidad, los parlamentarios tendran que someterse a la voluntad popular. Eso es lo que se requiere: construir un movimiento rectificatorio de abajo hacia arriba. Hacer lo que hicieron los chinos con su revolucion cultural. Todo lo que va a discussion en el parlamento debe discutirse 1ro abajo y si arriba no hay consenso ni el apoyo de ley, pues que el tema pase a Referendum. Y este sera el voto que cuente.

La porcion de poder que el pueblo construyo con votos anteriores –cristalizados hoy en el control del ejecutivo- tiene ahora que servir para defender el interes popular. Quien como socialista en el parlamento no cumpla la voluntad popular debera ser revocado del cargo (o dejado alli como figuron, pero sin poder ni sueldo de parlamentario). Este ejemplo debe ser lanzado por el propio PSUV. Esa es la unica forma de retornarle al pueblo el poder que el chavismo burocrartico le arrebato.

El poder que las recientes elecciones arrebataron al pueblo en el parlamento, hay que rescatarlo con elecciones permanentes dentro de las asambleas populares de cada localidad o distrito. Es la unica forma de reconstruir el socialismo, y de salvar Venezuela del bombardeo y la invasion de sus marines.

Si no se convierte al pueblo en sujeto actor de su propio destino (con capacidad para tomar decisiones en cada politica que conciernen a su localidad) y si -a la vez- no se lo prepara para resistir y contra-atacar a los invasores, la revolucion habra fracasado.

Como hacer todo esto en tan poco tiempo?. El imperio no va a esperar hasta el 2012, eso esta claro (y menos dejando a Chavez vivo). Esto –el poco tiempo que queda para el trabajo de rectificacion y para formar milicias que respondan a los invasores- es lo que debe ser principal motivo de reflexion y accion de todos y cada uno de los militantes socialistas.

O entregamos poder al pueblo para ambas cosas, para la rectificacion y la creacion de milicias armadas o simplemente traicionamos la revolucion y regalamos Venezuela al imperio. Socialismo o barbarie imperial, es la disyuntiva.