viernes, 22 de mayo de 2020

MAY 22 ND SIT EC y POL



MAY 22 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


"There is a long, documented history of retail investors chasing a handful of story stocks and then getting burned."
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Yesterday, we showed how as a result of the boycott of capital markets by institutional and systematic investors, who have refused to ride the bear market rally higher by keeping their net bullish exposure near decade lows...
See Chart:

... resulting in markets that remain extremely illiquid, with futures liquidity only recovering to its 22nd percentile, while single-stock liquidity remains below Dec-2018 levels according to Goldman...
See Charts:

.. retail investors have effectively "taken over the market." This took place as armchair daytraders plowed their government stimulus checks into "securities trading"...
See Table:

... which resulted in an explosion of daytrading on "zero cost" platforms like Robin Hood, and more recently, all other online brokerages.
See Chat:

Bloomberg also picked up on a chart that we showed from Goldman yesterday, demonstrating that the "fingerprints of tiny investors are all over the options market" where as we noted yesterday, trades consisting of just one contract now account for 13% of total volume
See Chart:

The chart below shows the top 1% dumping as the market falls entering recession. Of late, we can see that selling has happened in spurts by the top 1%. It's precisely this selling by the 1% that is also happening right now, with BofA pointing out that "smart money" have been dumping stocks for 6 consecutive weeks.
See Chart:

Meanwhile, for the bottom 90% it's just the opposite: the vast majority of unsophisticated retail investors start to chase momentum at the worst possible time, as they buy stocks en masse just as a recession begins, which in turn craters the market. In the Goldman chart below, we can see that the share of equities owned by the 90% jumps just as recession begin.
See Chart:

This is precisely what is going on right now: in laymen's terms, the rich are dumping their stock to the poor. The technical term is "distribution."
And when it comes to other signs of both recession and "dumping to the bottom 90%" as of late, there's plenty.
"There is a long, documented history of retail investors chasing a handful of story stocks and then getting burned,” said James Pillow, managing director at Moors & Cabot Inc. "We humans love a good narrative. I cannot imagine this time around ending any different."
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"The global policy response to the rapidly unfolding coronavirus crisis has been substantial, in many ways unprecedented."
SEE CHART:

According to DB, the US has responded the most aggressively to date, with the amount of QE purchases implemented and new credit facilities announced accounting for around 55% of all measures across the G20 and 60% of the $4.5trn increase in G10 central bank balance sheets
SEE CHARTS

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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


It had been hoped that the unemployment numbers would begin to normalize once states began “reopening” their economies, but so far that is not really materializing...
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The alliance is wide and inclusive...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

"The mystery of the origin of the
South Atlantic Anomaly has yet to be solved."
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Some of these rivals include small Chinese chipmakers, presumably working with tech stolen from the US and Taiwan...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION:

Chile:   HAMBRE   Manuel Acuña
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

OMS advierte: Sudamérica será "el nuevo epicentro" de la pand CV
VEN ordena "tomar posesión de DirecTV” y restituir el servicio   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354043-justicia-venezuela-posesion-directv-restitucion-servicio
1ros ensayos de vacuna china muestran que es segura y capaz de crear anticuerpos N https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354089-primeros-ensayos-vacuna-china-coronavirus-segura-generar-anticuerpos
Bolsonaro llama "mierdas" a gobernadores y alcaldes que imponen  cuarentenas  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354083-bolsonaro-mierdas-gobernadores-cuarentenas-pandemia-coronavirus
"¡Vaya cinismo!": fue respuesta del canciller de Ven al tuit de Pompeo que culpa a Mad
Advierten que 220 mill de pers del mundo n riesgo por beber agua contam con arsénico https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354033-mapa-avance-arsenico-aguas-subterraneas-peligro-mundial
Científicos rusos se inyectan vacuna contra el  CV y revelan resultados negativos  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354044-cientificos-rusos-inyectan-vacuna-coronavirus
Confirman:  campo magnético de la Tierra se debilita y afectaría  América del Sur   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353975-campo-magnetico-debilitarse
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It appears a new Cold War is in play – this time waged against China. What are the terms of engagement? What does it mean to win? And is an all-out war possible? How did the US and its allies find themselves in this situation?
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New Covid-19 hotspots are emerging around the world as Brazil’s case count continues to explode. This comes as markets are just beginning to rebound in the United States, but will this rally hold? We take a look at the state of stocks amid the virus and the state of US-China relations. Plus, the US Federal Reserve has played a major role in the recovery process, but what does the future hold for the central bank? We bring you insight from former US congressman and author of ‘End the Fed’, Dr. Ron Paul, and his outlook for the long road to economic recovery
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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jueves, 21 de mayo de 2020

MAY 21 ND SIT EC y POL



MAY 21 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

With the recession in course the US Economy falls little by little

Another 2.4 million Americans added to the jobless rolls, China tensions soar, Leading Indicators were a disaster, Housing Data a shitshow, PMIs bounced but remain historically bad... so buy small cap (domestically focused) stocks, and dump gold, silver, and cryptos...

Gold puked on major volume at 10amET...
See Chart:

Silver was monkey hammered even more than gold...
See Chart:

Cryptos have erased a lot of the post-Bitcoin-Halving gains...
See Chart:

Notably, the plunge in bullion and bitcoin coincided with the ugly PMI data and a jolt lower in Fed Rate expectations (back towards negative rates)...
See Chart: 

Nasdaq was the laggard on the day but Small Caps were manically bid off the European Close lows (and took a hit on the China sanction headlines late on)...
See Chart:

As shorted stocks  were squeezed yet again...
See Chart:

Meanwhile, The B-dollar index  did nothing...
See Chart:

Bonds did nothing... (long-end yields rose around 1bps on a major corporate issuance day)
See Chart:

Finally, whatever The Fed, The Market, The Politicians are doing... it's not working for sentiment...
See Chart:
S&P500 P/E Ratio vs. US Consumer Confort

Americans haven’t been this pessimistic about current economic conditions in six years. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 34.7 last week, a 1.1-point drop from the prior week and its ninth straight weekly decline, matching the longest streak on record.
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BofA now expects a -40% GDP drop in Q2, down from -30%. It does not see the economy recovering until the end of 2022.

  • BofA's annual GDP to plunge 8.0% this year with a 4.0% rebound next year. The peak-to-trough drop in GDP is 13%. This breaks the previously held post-war record of -4% in the Great Recession.
What is more troubling is that as shown in the chart below, the corona crisis will wipe out 4 years of GDP growth, with BofA now expecting real GDP at the end of 2021 to be where it was at the end of 2017!
SEE CHARTs:

BofA issues a word of caution to all those who see a V-shaped recovery in recent data: "it is important to keep in mind that many indicators will show a significant bounce as the economy moves out of hibernation. But what initially looks like a V-shaped recovery is set to lose steam after the initial gain has subsided."

With that in mind, BofA moves on to the next key subject, the devastation in the labor market and upcoming disinflation. As Meyer writes, "although more than 20 million jobs have been lost over March and April, the jobless claims figures suggest we are likely to see more cuts in the May report", something we discussed in our report spreading the real jobs report.
SEE CHART:
Alternative Unemployment rate measures

BofA now believes that the unemployment rate will reach a peak of 19% at the end of 2Q, while broader measures of unemployment suggest that the rates are already in excess of 20%. .. This, as Meyer warns, is a recipe for disinflation and could prove catastrophic for banks that haven't provisioned enough for loan losses

The bank forecasts core PCE inflation will reach 0.6% yoy by year-end, although the bank still believes that the US will avoid outright deflation in underlying inflation and that the focus will be on measures of expectations.
SEE CHARTS

in an economy under lockdown, demand for essentials has exploded higher resulting in a strong bid on prices. For example, food at home prices popped 2.6% mom in April. As a result, BofA says this could "misguide" consumers into believing the higher inflation story (we doubt consumers will be happy to know they are being "misguided" when they pay a record high price for steak ahead of the Labor Day holiday). 

However, this may prove to be only temporary as broader disinflationary forces take over, with a risk of falling below 0% and therefore entering deflation territory.

Finally, while urging clients to avoid letters to describe the cycle, BofA does just that and in the next chart it looks at four hypothetical types of recoveries: a "V" (upside) a "U" (close to the current), an "L" (downside) or a "W" (downside). In all cases, it assumes that output falls by 40% annualized in 2Q and trend growth of 1.8%.

In short:  for all the charlatans who focus on Q/Q change instead of Y/Y or trend line, chart 7 illustrates the pitfalls of conflating levels and growth rates.In all scenarios, GDP growth would look quite robust initially. This is because when the economy re-opens, baseline economic activity will be so weak that growth will almost surpass its trend rate for a few quarters. This underscores the importance of considering the level of GDP.
SEE CHARTS

Or, as BofA realistically concludes "WE CANNOT SIMPLY SNAP OUR FINGERS AND RETURN THE ECONOMY TO THE WAY IT WAS PRIOR TO THE SHOCK FROM COVID-19."
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Trace data shows an estimated $5.3BN increase in dealer inventories after the Fed began buying ETFs, no doubt in part artificial because ETF creations are unreported and thus not subtracted from Trace.

According to BofA's credit strategist Hans Mikkelsen, the Fed has continued buying at roughly that average daily pace and the bank's expectation is thatthe Fed will report holding around $2.5bn of corporate bond ETFs as of Tuesday this week.

Looking at daily IG ETF inflows they have risen to about $780bn after the Fed began buying from $360bn the prior periodMeanwhile, HY ETF inflows actually declined.
SEE CHART

Trace data shows an estimated $5.3bn increase in dealer inventories after the Fed began buying ETFsno doubt in part artificial because ETF creations are unreported and thus not subtracted from Trace...

... when dealers feed the Fed. IG and HY ETFs are trading at 0.44% and 0.30% premiums, respectively, on average, suggesting some limitations on specific ETFs the Fed can buy.
SEE CHART:

In short: the Fed likely purchased $2.5 billion in bond ETFs in the past week, once again steamrolling over even the faintest pretense that price discovery remains in a market where the perpetually high LQD and JNK prices mean companies can and will issue trillions in debt which they will promptly turn around and use to fund even more buybacks, as the Fed now fully owns the final bubble, the one where Soviet-style central planning is on full display.

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"There is a huge disconnect between markets and the economic reality, and it’s fundamentally based on the view that 2020 is a lost year... It looks a very dangerous bet to me..."

Gold miners/ BANG stocks:

“I personally always say that if you want to look at the world of metals or commodities, and you want to invest in the fundamentals of those metals or those commodities, the best way to play it is through the commodity itself, or the macro, not through equities, because cost of capital is also rising and there are challenges of financing.”

Gold/silver ratio
I always tell my clients that if you like gold you certainly have to like silver. I don’t understand why you would be long silver short gold or have it as a pair. I think that you need to have both. But I don’t believe in the debate about the ratio of gold to silver. Reminds me of the debate about the ratio of oil to natural gas. And I think that that was a mistake in the past.”
SEE CHART:

Will gold continue to be bullish?
“I don’t think that gold is going to be as bullish relative to the dollar because of the high shortage of US dollars that exists in the economy right now, which is about between 13 to 20 trillion.
However, global investors are likely to look for opportunities to find a good investment relative to their currency now.
SEE CHART:
Global Gold Reserves vs. FED Global Treasury Reserves

So Brazilian investors, Turkish investors, Chinese investors, Japanese investors, European investors are likely to see a much better return of gold relative to their currencies than relative to the US
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SHORT NEWS
Initially, we were told that the coronavirus lockdowns would just “temporarily” disrupt the U.S. economy, but now it is becoming clear that a lot of the damage will be permanent. 
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


Neither the Lockdown nor the planed attack by Penta-NATO Aghst RU-China work. They supposed to work hand on hand. Both failed. Now to stop another attempt of WW3 RU has to give nukes to VEN & IRAN then a negotiated peace like 1961 with JFK will proceed. There is no other way to stop US genocidal-wars as happen before.
...politicians have instead imposed a new form of central planning based on an unproven, theoretical set of ideas about police-enforced "social distancing"...
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Un clavo saca otro clavo, dicen los carpinteros de la Guerra. It seems to be true
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"Sorry. Fascism makes me cranky..."
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If you catch yourself using these words, please, for the love of kittens,STOP. Stop perpetuating the propaganda...
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SAFETY.. AMONG THE 12
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"DeMuro fraudulently stuffed the ballot box by literally standing in a voting booth and voting over and over, as fast as he could..."
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We don’t punish the killers of Democracy… SO: The REPs  can also say the same.. AND both will be considered HONEST  citizens & candidate to Nobel Price

The duopoly system has to be changed, either with 3rd option  or ABSTENTION We can leave as it is, but the winner won’t have legitimacy & the bomb will explode. The time is not open for more crook ‘normality’, bye bye neoliber trap
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

"We would impose penalties on individuals who are complicit in China’s illegal crackdown in Hong Kong."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

Militar USA  capturado en Ven asegura que Guaidó "desorientó" incursión marítima   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353932-militar-estadounidense-capturado-venezuela-incursion-guaido-desorientar
US anuncia retiro d Tratado de Cielos Abiertos: ¿por qué es import y qué efecto tendrá? https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353937-eeuu-anuncia-retirada-tratado-cielos-abiertos-que-consecuencias-tener
Expertos alertan que el CV-19 podría "devorar" diez años de vida a pacientes recupera https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353917-expertos-covid-devorar-diez-anos-vida-pacientes-recuperados
Bolsonaro sobre cloroquina: "No tiene evidencia científica, pero quien lo tomo está vivo  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353963-bolsonaro-defender-cloroquina-coronavirus
Proyecto de ley  prohíbe al  POTUS  retirarse de acuerdos sin aprob del Congreso  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353964-presentar-ley-prohibe-presidente-retirarse-acuerdos-sin-aprobacion-congreso
Wuhan confirma la prohibición de venta y consumo de animales salvajes  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353947-wuhan-confirma-prohibicion-venta-consumo-animales-salvajes
el hombre más rico de la India se asocio a Facebook para competir con Google, Amazon https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353858-mukesh-ambani-hombre-rico-india-facebook-competir-google-amazon
Genetistas españoles detectan  individuo respons de casi la mitad de contagios de CV   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353896-supercontagiadores-genetistas-espanoles-detectan-responsables-contagios
Tratado de Cielos Abiertos: "Trump se divide de Rusia y apoya al Pentágono"  https://actualidad.rt.com/video/353970-experto-trump-dividirse-entre-actitud-rusia-pentagono
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG   https://www.voltairenet.org/en

US Attorney General William Barr has decided not to open a judicial inquiry into Obamagate during this electoral period.
On his part, Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee Lindsey Graham has requested that the names should be made public of those senior officials and secretaries involved in the spying of General Michael Flynn before the 2016 election of Donald Trump.
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In this episode of Keiser Report, Max and Stacy discuss the blow-up dolls and mannequins simulating activity at social distancing restaurants but helping to instill a creepy post-pandemic unease over the new normal. They compare that to our blow-up doll economy, where money printing also creates a creepy illusion of economic activity – one which the money velocity shows is all fake. In the second half, Max talks to Tyson Slocum of Public Citizen about the structural failures in the energy market which allowed for a negative oil price, and they discuss how the Saudis got played by retail ETF investors in America.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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